Bigger than the Bull Market of the 1970's
Richard Russell

 

"Now I want to talk about the current bull market in gold. This is a bull market that began in August 1999 with gold priced at 252 an ounce. Gold is the most emotional of all items -- loved by much of mankind, hated by certain elements including governments and central banks. Because gold is real money, and because gold is collected, traded and accumulated by millions of people the world over, gold bull markets tend to be BIG bull markets.

The gold bull market that started in 1999 has already taken gold up 291% to a high of 734 recorded in May of 2006. But what's so interesting about the ongoing gold bull market is that neither the public nor the funds have entered the picture. In fact, most people really have no idea that gold is in a primary bull market, this despite that fact that since 1999 gold has consistently outperformed the Dow and the S&P.

I believe that the gold bull market is now in its very early second phase. Informed investors have already established healthy positions in gold. I think that a very minor sector of the investing public has now taken some kind of a position either in gold or gold stocks or a gold ETF or a gold fund. Nevertheless, it's still unusual today to find an individual who has any kind of a position in gold.

Gold has been in a corrective phase ever its May high of last year. This backing-and-filling has served to discourage many Johnny-come-lately and in-and-out traders. Meanwhile, gold remains in what I consider its "bargain phase" below 734. But what about the future?

This is important. Almost all BIG bull markets (and I believe gold is in one) ultimately move into a third speculative phase. I believe this phase lies ahead for gold, maybe a year or so, maybe three, four or five years out. It doesn't matter -- in my opinion, the longer the time elapsed prior to the entrance of the third phase, the bigger the third phase for gold is fated to be. But before entering the third phase, we have to complete the second phase. The second phase, from the looks of it, may has quite a while to go before it is completed. Question -- how many of your friends own any gold?

My thinking is that when gold finally moves into its third phase, we may see one of the most speculative third phases in history. I believe we will see gold in the thousands of dollars. I believe we will see one of the most emotional bull market third phases in history. People will look back on the year 2007 and wonder what the world was thinking about with gold selling for $650 US dollars, dollars that were created out of thin air, fiat dollars which could be created by central banks in any quantity in at any time.

At any rate, that's the way I see this sluggish, unexciting, slowly-moving gold bull market here in 2007. I lived through and profited during the gold bull market of the 1970's. That bull market was based on inflation fears. This bull market when it moves into its third phase will be based on fear of the viability of the dollar and all fiat money. This bull market is fated to be much bigger than the bull market of the 1970's."