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Don’t Trade Last Week’s Silver Story!

- Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals

Hi.
When you trade in the futures markets you are opening a contract.
That could be sell 10 x Dec Lean Hogs at such and such.
Theoretically when that contract expires you would have to deliver on that contract e.g. 10x 40,000 lbs of Lean Hog to the buyer.
I assume that happens, but speculators close out the contract before expiry date as a cash settlement.

Same with Gold. It is a contract for 100 Troy oz. Say you are long and stand for delivery. I assume that happens too. It is delivered once the contract is paid out, as only a margin is initially deposited.

The problem ahead could be this...does the seller actually have the gold to deliver? If not "declaration of force majeur" or "sorry we don't have it, so here is a cash settlement". That might be Ok because you made a $$ profit but I suggest if an exchange declares "FM" then by the time you get paid, gold would be much more expensive and in fact not many people will be willing to buy your dollars with their gold at any price.

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Début de l'article :Since February of this year, there has been at least one silver contract in backwardation. Since May 31, the September contract has been backwardated. But that has now come to an end. Before we get to the graphs, let’s define our terms. Some people look at a graph of (cleared trade) prices. If they find a futures price that is below a spot price they declare it to be backwardation. One problem with this approach is that the quotes may not be simultaneous. A contract that is close to expiration o... Lire la suite

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