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Mercredi 28 Novembre 2012 : Chute des cours de l'or et de l'argent, quelles explications ?

- Fabrice Drouin-Ristori. - GoldBroker

désolé pour ceux qui ne lisent pas l’anglais mais sa dit concrètement les effets sur l'éconnomie américaine qu'aurait la décision de reduire la dette par le taxage !

Possible Effects of the Fiscal Cliff

If the current laws slated for 2013 go into effect, the impact on the economy could be dramatic. While the combination of higher taxes and spending cuts would reduce the deficit by an estimated $560 billion, the CBO estimates that the policies set to go into effect would cut gross domestic product (GDP) by four percentage points in 2013, sending the economy into a recession (i.e., negative growth). At the same time, it predicts unemployment would rise by almost a full percentage point, with a loss of about two million jobs. A Wall St. Journal article from May 16, 2012 estimates the following impact in dollar terms: “In all, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli, $280 billion would be pulled out of the economy by the sunsetting of the Bush tax cuts; $125 million from the expiration of the Obama payroll-tax holiday; $40 million from the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits; and $98 billion from Budget Control Act spending cuts. In all, the tax increases and spending cuts make up about 3.5% of GDP, with the Bush tax cuts making up about half of that, according to the J.P. Morgan report.” Amid an already-fragile recovery and elevated unemployment, the economy is not in a position to avoid this type of shock.

The cost of indecision is likely to have an effect on the economy before 2013 even begins. The CBO anticipates that a lack of resolution will cause households and businesses to begin changing their spending in anticipation of the changes, possible reducing GDP before 2012 is even over.

Having said this, it's important to keep in mind that while the term “cliff” indicates an immediate disaster at the beginning of 2013, the impact of the changes - while destructive over a full year - will be gradual at first. What's more, Congress can act to change laws retroactively after the deadline. As a result, the fiscal cliff won't necessarily be an impediment to growth even if Congress doesn't address the issue until after 2013 has already begun.

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Début de l'article :L'or a chuté de 26,60 dollars en 1 minute entre 14h20 et 14h21 pour atteindre un point bas de 1705 dollars l'once avant de remonter légèrement. Un ordre de vente massif d'or correspondant à 7800 contrats (24 tonnes d'or "papier") a été enregistré à 14h20. En moins de 60 secondes 35% du volume quotidien a été échangé... Lire la suite

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