| Demand and Supply Risks: How Will Crude Prices React? | |
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What Does EIA’s November Short-Term Outlook Forecast? Crude prices
In its STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) for the month of November, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) stated that crude oil prices are less volatile in October than in August and September. Brent crude oil prices averaged $48 per barrel, or $1 per barrel more than September’s average prices. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices averaged $46 per barrel in October. WTI average prices are slightly up in comparison with September’s WTI average prices.
EIA forecasts
EIA forecasts that WTI crude oil prices will average $50 per barrel in 2015 and $51 per barrel in 2016. For Brent, EIA forecast that prices will average $54 per barrel in 2015 and $56 per barrel in 2016.
In spite of the fact that prices were moderately steady, there is widespread instability in the crude oil market as upside and downside risks to demand and supply still exist.
US oil rig counts continued to fall, but the effect on US oil production is negligible. On the other hand, production levels from several international producers are uncertain.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter raised concerns about the demand for petroleum products. Some forecasts are saying that OPEC’s (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) production will fall in 2016, but massive stockpiles have to fall to normal levels first to boost crude oil prices.
High supply concerns forced oil prices to come down, and low oil prices led to falling rig counts and reductions in capital expenditure budgets by major oil companies like Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP (BP), and Marathon Oil (MRO). However, despite rig count and capital expenditure budget reductions, EIA Projected US crude oil production averages of 9.3 million barrels per day in 2015 and 8.8 million barrels per day in 2016.
Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) account for 15.59% and 15.64% of the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE).
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ConocoPhillips
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CODE : COP |
ISIN : US20825C1045 |
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ProfileMarket IndicatorsVALUE : Projects & res.Press releasesAnnual reportRISK : Asset profileContact Cpy |
ConocoPhillips is a producing company based in United states of america. ConocoPhillips is listed in Germany and in United States of America. Its market capitalisation is US$ 130.4 billions as of today (€ 116.8 billions). Its stock quote reached its lowest recent point on December 31, 1991 at US$ 10.94, and its highest recent level on September 20, 2024 at US$ 110.80. ConocoPhillips has 1 177 107 000 shares outstanding. |