Platinum Group metals Ltd

Published : November 14th, 2012

Leading PGM Forecaster Calls for Significant Platinum and Palladium Deficits Going Forward

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Platinum Group Metals

Leading PGM Forecaster Calls for Significant Platinum and palladium Deficits Going Forward

November 14, 2012

Johnson Matthey,(�JM�) the world�s leading authority on production, supply and use of the platinum group metals published its 2012 interim review this week. In the report Johnson Matthey is calling for significant deficits in both platinum and palladium based on strong demand and supply constraints. A summary press release has been provided below.

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (PLG:NYSE MKT, PTM: TSX) is currently developing the Western Bushveld Joint Venture (WBJV) platinum mine in South Africa. The WBJV is one of the only new platinum mines being developed in the global platinum industry with first production scheduled for 2014. The WBJV is a shallow, high-grade deposit adjacent to 70% of global platinum production. A $100M (USD) first phase construction program has been underway since 2010 focused on infrastructure and underground development. The phase two construction program is scheduled to begin upon completion of a $260M (USD) senior loan facility mandated to a global banking syndicate that includes Barclays/ABSA, Standard Bank, Caterpillar Finance and Societe Generale. Phase two will focus on processing infrastructure and continued development into ore. With steady state production scheduled for 275,000 (4E) per annum (2009 UFS, www.sedar.com) Platinum Group is well positioned to take advantage of the looming global shortage for platinum and palladium as forecasted by JM.

Platinum Group has made an important discovery at the Waterberg project on the North Limb of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa. Multiple intercepts of consistently high grade, thick reef have been encountered with the potential for lower cost mechanized mining. Waterberg is a joint venture between Platinum Group and the Japanese state company for global exploration JOGMEC (Japan Oil and Gas Mineral Exploration Corporation). An initial 6.6M ounce inferred resource (see September 1, 2012 independent technical report at www.sedar.com) was published in September of 2012 and a ten drill rig program continues to expand the discovery along strike and up dip.

PLATINUM MARKET FORECAST TO BE IN DEFICIT IN 2012
SOUTH AFRICAN PLATINUM SUPPLY TO FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2001

A substantial reduction in supplies, as well as lower volumes of autocatalyst recycling, will move the platinum market from surplus to deficit in 2012, according to Johnson Matthey in "Platinum 2012 Interim Review", released today. Severe disruption to pgm mining is expected to reduce sales from South Africa and result in a 10% drop in worldwide platinum supplies to 5.84 million ounces. Gross demand is predicted to remain firm, at 8.07 million ounces, while a decline in recycling will help decidedly shift the market into a deficit of 400,000 oz.

Platinum supplies from South Africa are forecast to fall by 12% year-on-year to 4.25 million ounces, an eleven-year low. South African platinum production losses due to strikes and safety stoppages in the first three quarters of 2012 are estimated to be at least 300,000 oz. The closure of marginal operations by some junior producers and below-plan performance at other mines will also account for some reduction in supply this year . Output and sales of platinum from other producing regions will remain broadly flat.

Gross platinum demand in autocatalysts is predicted to soften by 1% to 3.07 million ounces. Falling vehicle production in Europe, together with a slight decline in the market share of diesel cars in the region, will be largely offset by higher purchasing of platinum by Japanese manufacturers as output improves following last year's natural disasters. Greater demand is also expected from the light duty diesel sector in India, where sales have grown strongly in 2012, as well as more platinum used in heavy duty diesel emissions aftertreatment worldwide.

Demand for platinum in the jewellery sector is expected to reach a three-year high of 2.73 million ounces. Gross demand from the trade in China is forecast to reach 1.92 million ounces driven by lower average platinum prices and an increase in the manufacturing of platinum jewellery to stock new retail stores being opened by Hong Kong brands in mainland China. Consumer demand for platinum jewellery in India has continued to grow , prompting an expansion of platinum jewellery manufacturing and retailing.

Industrial demand for platinum is forecast to subside by 13% to 1.79 million ounces in 2012. In the glass manufacturing sector, new purchasing will be offset by the use of platinum scrapped from old facilities and the drawing down of inventory bought last year. Electrical demand is also expected to soften but purchasing of platinum for non-road emissions control applications will rise.

Physical investment demand for platinum is expected to remain positive, at 490,000 oz. Investment in physically-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) has largely followed the price during 2012, with net investment generally during periods of rising price. Net acquisitions by investors in the Japanese large bar market and in the coin sector will also supplement demand.

Platinum recycling is forecast to fall by 11% to 1.83 million ounces in 2012. Platinum recovery from spent end-of-life vehicle catalysts is expected to soften as collectors have been holding on to spent converters in anticipation of improved prices. Platinum jewellery recycling will also weaken due to lower returns of old consumer pieces in Japan.

In 2013, gross platinum demand is expected to see modest growth, with steady autocatalyst demand and a recovery in industrial purchasing. However, as a result of ongoing disruption and possible restructuring of the industry, it is difficult to expect an increase in supplies from South Africa of any great magnitude from the 4.25 million ounces forecast this year. Recycling could be a key factor in the platinum market balance in 2013, especially if prices see a material and sustained improvement, driving higher throughput of catalyst substrates to refineries.

The balance of the palladium market is forecast to swing by over 2 million ounces this year from surplus to deficit, due to lower supplies, higher gross demand and less recycling. Supplies will contract mainly because of lower sales of Russian state stocks, while recycling will be constrained by subdued pgm prices. Gross palladium demand is predicted to rise to 9.73 million ounces, driven by a return to positive net physical investment and higher autocatalyst purchasing, moving the palladium market into a deficit of 915,000 oz.

Supplies of palladium are predicted to decline to a nine-year low of 6.57 million ounces. palladium supplies from South Africa are forecast to fall by 6% this year, to 2.40 million ounces, in line with lower underlying platinum output. Newly refined palladium supplies from Russia are expected to decrease due to a change in the ore mix and falling average grades. Sales of Russian state stocks are forecast to drop by over half a million ounces compared with last year, to 250,000 oz.

Purchasing of palladium by the autocatalyst sector is expected to rise by 7% to a new high of 6.48 million ounces. Demand for palladium is forecast to benefit from growth in global vehicle production, with the strongest performance in the principally gasoline markets of Japan and the USA, as well as continuing substitution of platinum in both light and heavy duty diesel aftertreatment formulations.

Industrial demand for palladium is forecast to soften by 3% to 2.41 million ounces. In electrical applications, a long-term trend towards using cheaper base metal alternatives to palladium in all but niche and high-end applications continues to drive demand lower. However, a wave of chemical plant construction in China will stimulate purchasing of palladium for new catalyst charges.

This year is set to mark the return to positive physical palladium investment demand, in contrast with the net liquidation seen in 2011. For the year as a whole, a change in investor sentiment towards palladium ETFs is expected to result in 385,000 oz of net new physical investment demand, a swing of 950,000 oz compared with last year.

Gross demand for palladium in jewellery is predicted to dampen by 11% to 450,000 oz. Purchasing of palladium by the Chinese jewellery sector is expected to decline once again as the metal continues to suffer from a lack of positioning and effective marketing, as well as competition from low-fineness gold alloys.

Supplies of palladium are expected to fall in 2013 as a result of lower output from Russia and the diminishing likelihood of a significant increase in output from South Africa. Another year of solid autocatalyst and industrial demand is forecast, together with higher returns of palladium from end-of-life vehicle recycling.

Platinum 2012 Interim Review is Johnson Matthey's latest free survey of the platinum group metals market. Johnson Matthey is the world's leading authority on production, supply and use of the platinum group metals.

 

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Platinum Group Metals is a platinum development stage company based in Canada.

Platinum Group Metals holds various exploration projects in Philippines.

Its main asset in development is WESTERN BUSHVELD JV in South Africa and its main exploration properties are AGNEW LAKE and LAC DES ILES in Canada, WAR SPRINGS and TWEESPALK in South Africa and ACT (ADLAY CAGDIANAO TANDAWA NICKEL) in Philippines.

Platinum Group Metals is listed in Canada and in United States of America. Its market capitalisation is CA$ 411.2 millions as of today (US$ 333.9 millions, € 286.3 millions).

Its stock quote reached its highest recent level on November 30, 2012 at CA$ 9.90, and its lowest recent point on June 15, 2018 at CA$ 0.12.

Platinum Group Metals has 133 070 008 shares outstanding.

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