We are almost three weeks away from Alcoa’s (AA) earnings release on April 8th, but the 2015 Q1 earnings season will get underway this week with the Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) reports after the close on Tuesday. All of these early reporters have fiscal quarters ending in February, which we count as part of our 2015 Q1 tally.

In total, we will get results from more than 100 companies this week, including 9 S&P 500 members. But as you can see in the chart below of weekly reporting calendar for companies in the S&P 500 index, we will have to wait another 4 weeks for the Q1 reporting cycle to really ramp up.

Estimates have come down sharply over the last few months, with total earnings for the quarter now expected to be down -4.9% from the same period last year, down from expectations of positive +4.9% growth in mid-December and +10.8% in early October.

As was the case in Q4, Energy is the biggest driver of this negative revisions trend. While total Q1 earnings for the Energy sector were expected to be down (only) -35.6% in mid-December, they are now expected to be down -63.3% year over year. But it’s not all due to the Energy sector, as estimates beyond the Energy sector have been coming down as well.

The chart below plots the evolution of current and following quarter estimates over the last few months. As you can see, the first half 2015 growth rate has effectively evaporated under the combined effect of developments in the oil patch, the U.S. dollar strength and global growth issues.

The chart above is spotlighting the revisions trend for the first two quarters of the 2015, though the expected growth picture for the second half of the year has taken a big beating in recent days as well. In fact, the double-digit earnings growth expectation for 2015 has already disappeared and been pushed forward into 2016 now.  

The chart below focuses solely on evolution of 2015 Q1 estimates and presents the evolving picture with and without the Energy sector. As you can see, the Energy sector is undoubtedly the biggest driver, but estimates have been coming down fairly sharply outside of the Energy sector as well.

The green columns represent the aggregate growth expectation for the S&P 500 as a whole over different time periods since early October 2014; the grey column shows the same data on an ex-Energy basis.
 

The chart below shows the major sectors that suffered the negative revisions for Q1.

This pronounced downshift in estimates has prompted some on Wall Street to start claiming that the revisions trend may have a gone bit too much; meaning that estimates have likely become too low. Hard to find a basis for such a claim in real time, particularly given the global growth woes and still-high U.S dollar. But we will find soon enough as actual Q1 results start coming in.

The table below presents the summary picture for Q1 contrasted with what companies actually reported in the 2014 Q4 earnings season.

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Note: For a complete analysis of 2014 Q4 estimates, please check out weekly Earnings Trends report.

Here is a list of the 118 companies reporting this week, including 9 S&P 500 members.

 

Company Ticker Current Qtr Year-Ago Qtr Last EPS Surprise % Report Day Time STERLING CONSTR STRL N/A -1.83 -200 Monday BTO PARK OHIO HLDNG PKOH 1.27 0.85 -6.5 Monday BTO TOWNSQAR MEDIA TSQ 0.22 N/A -40.74 Monday BTO RADNET INC RDNT 0.1 0.07 180 Monday BTO REVOLUTION LT RVLT 0 -0.04 N/A Monday BTO UCP INC UCP -0.04 -0.25 -300 Monday BTO SYNTHETIC BIOLG SYN -0.06 -0.09 -33.33 Monday BTO PROGENICS PHARM PGNX -0.13 -0.14 464.29 Monday BTO PFENEX INC PFNX -0.23 N/A 36 Monday BTO PARKERVISION PRKR N/A -0.08 N/A Monday AMC ROSETTA GENOMIC ROSG N/A N/A N/A Monday AMC VECTRUS INC VEC N/A N/A N/A Monday AMC WAFERGEN BIOSYS WGBS N/A 1.8 N/A Monday AMC TRIPLEPOINT VEN TPVG 0.42 N/A N/A Monday AMC PROVIDENCE SVC PRSC 0.28 0.24 0 Monday AMC RYERSON HOLDING RYI 0.25 N/A -76.32 Monday AMC TRANSATL PETROL TAT 0.13 -0.08 15.79 Monday AMC PATRIOT NATIONL PN 0.05 N/A N/A Monday AMC RING ENERGY INC REI 0.05 0.08 -50 Monday AMC WIDEPOINT CORP WYY 0 -0.03 0 Monday AMC TALON INTL INC TALN 0 0 N/A Monday AMC EXONE CO/THE XONE -0.03 -0.22 -138.46 Monday AMC QUNAR CAYMN LTD QUNR -0.54 -0.18 11.54 Monday AMC ORACLE CORP ORCL 0.64 0.64 0 Tuesday AMC ADOBE SYSTEMS ADBE 0.27 0.16 29.41 Tuesday AMC ANTOFAGASTA PLC ANFGY N/A N/A N/A Tuesday N/A FACTSET RESH FDS 1.41 1.22 -0.75 Tuesday BTO BURLINGTON STRS BURL 1.32 1.06 25 Tuesday BTO ZEBRA TECH CL A ZBRA 0.95 0.91 9.41 Tuesday BTO DSW INC CL-A DSW 0.27 0.31 9.8 Tuesday BTO RENTECH NITROGN RNF 0.27 -0.45 -166.67 Tuesday BTO RSP PERMIAN INC RSPP 0.22 N/A 0 Tuesday BTO CONSOLTD WATER CWCO 0.13 0.07 30 Tuesday BTO ARCOS DORADOS-A ARCO 0.12 0.18 -100 Tuesday BTO RENTECH INC RTK 0 -0.06 -350 Tuesday BTO PLUG POWER INC PLUG -0.04 -0.08 -33.33 Tuesday BTO TAOMEE HOLDINGS TAOM -0.07 0.05 600 Tuesday BTO FLEX PHARMA INC FLKS -0.12 N/A N/A Tuesday BTO CLEAN DIESEL CDTI -0.15 -0.16 57.69 Tuesday BTO SUNSHINE HEART SSH -0.39 -0.42 10 Tuesday BTO INTEROIL CORP IOC -0.67 N/A 43.14 Tuesday BTO SKY SOLAR HLDGS SKYS -1.05 N/A N/A Tuesday BTO ENTELLUS MED ENTL N/A N/A N/A Tuesday AMC CAREDX INC CDNA N/A N/A 107.69 Tuesday AMC EVOLVING SYSTEM EVOL N/A 0.11 75 Tuesday AMC NAVIGATOR HLDGS NVGS 0.49 0.22 0 Tuesday AMC AVID TECH INC AVID 0.22 N/A N/A Tuesday AMC PAPA MURPHYS HL FRSH 0.18 N/A 14.29 Tuesday AMC BLUE CALYPSO BCYP 0 -0.01 0 Tuesday AMC CELATOR PHARMA CPXX -0.16 -0.13 0 Tuesday AMC OXIGENE INC OXGN -0.17 N/A N/A Tuesday AMC AETERNA ZENTARS AEZS -0.18 -0.28 N/A Tuesday AMC MACROCURE LTD MCUR -0.28 N/A -150 Tuesday AMC BACTERIN INTL BONE -0.31 -0.7 26.98 Tuesday AMC FIVEPRIME THERA FPRX -0.4 -0.43 21.43 Tuesday AMC IGNYTA INC RXDX -0.43 N/A -48.65 Tuesday AMC FEDEX CORP FDX 1.88 1.23 -3.6 Wednesday BTO GENL MILLS GIS 0.68 0.62 5.26 Wednesday BTO CINTAS CORP CTAS 0.79 0.69 10.26 Wednesday AMC TENAX THERAPEUT TENX N/A -0.44 N/A Wednesday BTO ACTUANT CORP ATU 0.3 0.3 -11.63 Wednesday BTO LATAM AIRLINES LFL 0.22 0.22 -25 Wednesday BTO LEJU HOLDINGS LEJU 0.21 N/A -12.5 Wednesday BTO E-HOUSE CHINA EJ 0.11 0.23 -44.44 Wednesday BTO EVINE LIVE INC EVLV 0.04 0 250 Wednesday BTO FOAMIX PHARMA FOMX -0.05 N/A -71.43 Wednesday BTO TREVENA INC TRVN -0.39 N/A -51.28 Wednesday BTO RENREN INC-ADR RENN N/A 0 150 Wednesday AMC WILLIAMS-SONOMA WSM 1.51 1.38 7.94 Wednesday AMC GUESS INC GES 0.58 0.83 33.33 Wednesday AMC CLARCOR INC CLC 0.53 0.46 0 Wednesday AMC JABIL CIRCUIT JBL 0.37 0.03 15 Wednesday AMC HERMAN MILLER MLHR 0.34 0.34 0 Wednesday AMC TILLYS INC TLYS 0.22 0.19 63.64 Wednesday AMC SILVER WHEATON SLW 0.16 0.26 0 Wednesday AMC SMART&FINAL STR SFS 0.11 N/A -14.29 Wednesday AMC COSAN LTD-A CZZ 0.1 N/A -95.24 Wednesday AMC SHOE CARNIVAL SCVL 0.09 0.03 10.2 Wednesday AMC HEALTH INS INN HIIQ 0.06 0.06 -100 Wednesday AMC SUNGY MOBILE GOMO -0.08 0.12 -33.33 Wednesday AMC CAPRICOR THERAP CAPR -0.13 N/A N/A Wednesday AMC JUNO THERAPEUTC JUNO -0.33 N/A N/A Wednesday AMC K2M GRP HLDGS KTWO -0.34 N/A 9.68 Wednesday AMC CYMABAY THERAPT CBAY -0.46 N/A 8.33 Wednesday AMC NEVRO CORP NVRO -0.51 N/A N/A Wednesday AMC OTONOMY INC OTIC -0.65 N/A -86.36 Wednesday AMC LENNAR CORP -A LEN 0.45 0.35 10.31 Thursday BTO NIKE INC-B NKE 0.85 0.76 5.71 Thursday AMC SWIRE PAC ADR A SWRAY N/A N/A N/A Thursday N/A TECH DATA CORP TECD 2.04 2.1 24.21 Thursday BTO MICHAELS COS MIK 0.76 N/A 19.23 Thursday BTO VINCE HOLDNG CP VNCE 0.26 0.23 6.06 Thursday BTO STATE NATL COS SNC 0.18 N/A N/A Thursday BTO TSAKOS EGY NAVG TNP 0.16 -0.09 0 Thursday BTO MARCUS CORP MCS 0.04 0.19 35.71 Thursday BTO DECISIONPOINT DPSI 0.01 -0.31 -600 Thursday BTO CARE.COM INC CRCM -0.13 -1.16 4.88 Thursday BTO URANIUM RES INC URRE -0.14 -0.42 -6.67 Thursday BTO FLAMEL TECH FLML -0.22 0.2 -6.67 Thursday BTO ALDEYRA THERAPT ALDX -0.43 N/A N/A Thursday BTO MATTRESS FIRM MFRM 0.47 0.3 0 Thursday AMC NEW YORK & CO NWY 0 0.11 8.33 Thursday AMC JOINT CORP/THE JYNT -0.04 N/A -33.33 Thursday AMC STAR BULK CARRS SBLK -0.04 0.06 -40 Thursday AMC EXA CORP EXA -0.05 0.01 300 Thursday AMC ENVIVIO INC ENVI -0.11 -0.08 -100 Thursday AMC METABOLIX INC MBLX -0.12 -0.25 25 Thursday AMC RALLY SOFTWARE RALY -0.3 -0.25 31.71 Thursday AMC CTRIP.COM INTL CTRP -0.31 0.28 0 Thursday AMC VERACYTE INC VCYT -0.32 -0.42 -8.82 Thursday AMC CERULEAN PHARMA CERU -0.36 N/A 12.5 Thursday AMC VITAL THERAPIES VTL -0.6 N/A 7.81 Thursday AMC ZAFGEN INC ZFGN -0.81 N/A 21.69 Thursday AMC TIFFANY & CO TIF 1.5 1.47 -1.3 Friday BTO DARDEN RESTRNT DRI 0.84 0.82 3.7 Friday BTO COPEL-ADR PR B ELP N/A 0.28 N/A Friday N/A PING AN INS GRP PNGAY N/A 0.19 N/A Friday N/A KB HOME KBH 0.02 0.09 -48.08 Friday BTO
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