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BP plc

Publié le 04 janvier 2016

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Valero Energy

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Mots clés associés :   Iran | Opec |

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Valero Energy

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – January 04, 2015 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog includeChevron Corp. (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A), BP plc (BP) and Valero Energy Corp. ( VLO).

Today, Zacks is promoting its ''Buy'' stock recommendations. Get #1Stock of the Day pick for free.

Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Any Chance of Oil Price Recovery in 2016?

A quick flashback on the last day of the year shows how crude prices have hurt the broader markets almost on a daily basis in 2015. It is quite natural that oil investors can only wish for a recovery in 2016. As we stand on the cusp of a New Year, let’s delve into the events that will likely play a bigger role in determining 2016 crude fate.

To start off, all we can say is that there is more or less no reason to keep expectations high for a miraculous oil price recovery.

A Recap

Let’s have a look at the oil price picture in the past. Since mid-2014, the commodity’s price has been plunging, primarily due to excess supply of crude in the global market.

To go back further in time, during 1990 and early 2000, the U.S. was more dependent on crude import as domestic demand was far above its conventional oil supply. But with the invention of new techniques like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, U.S. shale producers ramped up oil production relentlessly. Eventually, the U.S. started relying less on oil import thanks to the huge scale of crude output.

The shale boom turned the U.S. into an oil-surplus economy from a crude-deficit region. Along with the U.S., the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – the international cartel of oil producers – also pumped up more crude. All these events led to a global oversupply of the commodity and pushed oil to its multi-year lows.

The Whys and Wherefores

Now the question that arises is what stopped the big oil producers from reducing output in 2015 when the measure could have taken crude back to its glorious days as were seen in the first half of 2014.

Looking back, a war for market share has been raging among the likes of OPEC, the U.S. and Russia. Each of these markets has been pumping hard and competing for market share, completely ignoring the downtrend in oil price.

On top of that, at the recent meeting in Vienna, OPEC decided not to cut oil production. Instead, the cartel raised its production ceiling. Saudi Arabia-led OPEC explained that if it is the only block to curb output when other players continue to produce at their own lofty levels, it will end up losing market share.

This early-December decision dealt a huge blow to the energy market and dragged West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price further to below the $40-per-barrel mark. Even yesterday, oil closed at $36.60 per barrel.

Overall, the picture is not at all in favor of an oil price respite in 2016. We believe the major events that can determine the black gold’s fate are: Saudi Arabia-led OPEC’s production growth in an already oversupplied market, possible flood of Iranian oil, lift of the four-decade long U.S. crude export ban and the weakness in Chinese economy. Let’s go by these events one by one.

OPEC Says No to Production Cut: As already mentioned OPEC did not agree to curb oil output at the contentious Vienna meeting. The cartel decided to raise the ceiling of daily production from the prior level of 30 million barrels to 31.5 million barrels. This might be a reflection of Saudi Arabia’s intention to keep Iran − also a part of the cartel − under pressure after sanctions on the latter are lifted by early 2016.

In other words, Saudi Arabia wants to flood the already oversupplied crude market and wants to prolong the crude bearish trend. So, when Iran starts exporting oil, its revenue will have to pay for the low crude price.

On top of that, according to many analysts, OPEC also has an intention to keep high cost oil producers out of the market by consistently keeping the commodity price low for a stretch of time.

Lift of Oil Export Ban on Iran & U.S. : After months of negotiations, a nuclear deal was reached between Iran and six world powers by mid 2015. The agreement was meant to restrict Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons in exchange of removing economic sanctions – which also included constraining crude oil export from Tehran. With this historic agreement, every road that led to manufacturing nuclear weapons in Iran has been blocked for at least 10 years.

But with the sanctions lifted likely by early 2016, Iran will start flooding the crude market, as the country depends heavily on oil export. Moreover, the lift of U.S crude export ban will add to the existing over-supplied oil market.

Weak Chinese Economy: China is the world's second-largest oil consumer. Persistent weakness in the Chinese economy weakened global crude demand to a large extent.

The slowdown in China is partly due to the shift of this most populous country to a consumer driven economy from one banking on manufacturing and exports. Adding to its worry, Chinese industrial profit − as per China’s National Bureau of Statistics − slipped by $103.8 billion in November from last year’s comparable period.

Conclusion

With OPEC’s production ceiling hike and the lift of export ban from Iran and the U.S., we can safely predict continued crude oversupply in 2016. Also, the Chinese economy in spite of stimulus measures has a long road to recovery. This adds up to another bearish market for oil going into the New Year.

As a result, upstream and integrated energy players like Chevron Corp. (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A) and BP plc ( BP) will continue to suffer in 2016. Year to date, their stock prices have fallen a respective 19.7%, 15.5%, 16.8% and 17.9%.

On the other hand, low oil is really good for the oil refiners like San Antonio, TX-based Valero Energy Corp. ( VLO) − the largest independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the U.S. The company has shored up huge returns of more than 44% this year.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today. Find out What is happening in the stock market today on zacks.com.


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BP plc

CODE : BP
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BP plc est une société de production minière basée au Royaume-Uni.

BP plc est cotée au Canada et aux Etats-Unis D'Amerique. Sa capitalisation boursière aujourd'hui est 129,4 milliards US$ (121,0 milliards €).

La valeur de son action a atteint son plus bas niveau récent le 15 janvier 1993 à 10,53 US$, et son plus haut niveau récent le 26 avril 2024 à 39,47 US$.

BP plc possède 3 279 639 808 actions en circulation.

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03/11/2009and CNPC to Develop Iraq's Super-Giant Rumaila Field
03/11/2009Quarterly Financial and Operating Information
28/10/2009TT Begins Gas Production From Savonette
26/10/2009to Farm into Risha Concession in Jordan
20/10/2009Meeting the Energy Challenge
09/10/2009Gas: the natural choice
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24/09/2009A Road Map for America's Energy Future
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11/08/2009and Martek Biosciences enter a joint development agreement t...
04/08/2009Quarterly Financial and Operating Information
28/07/2009Output Rises as CEO Hayward Sees Costs Falling $1 Billion Mo...
24/07/2009Irving Oil and BP will not proceed with proposed second refi...
17/07/2009Announces Successful Results of Mad Dog South Well
13/07/2009and SOCAR Sign MOU To Explore New Caspian Acreage
06/07/2009First Cargo From Indonesia's Tangguh LNG Project
10/06/2009Statistical Review of World Energy 2009
10/06/2009In Turbulent Year Developing World Leapfrogs Sluggish OECD i...
29/05/2009Solar and RGE Energy AG Announce One of the World's Largest ...
28/05/2009TNK-BP Shareholders Agree on CEO Succession Plan
27/05/2009Makes Eighteenth Oil Discovery in Ultra-Deep Water Block 31 ...
05/03/2009Annual Review 2008
03/03/2009Replaces 2008 Production by 121 Per Cent and Aims to Grow An...
03/03/2009Makes Seventeenth Oil Discovery in the Ultra-deep Water Bloc...
02/03/2009Reminder - BP's strategy update - March 2009
19/02/2009and Verenium Form Leading Cellulosic Ethanol Venture to Deli...
18/02/2009Robert Dudley to Join BP Board
17/02/2009strategy update - March 2009
11/02/200928th CERA Executive Conference - Opening speech to the Cambr...
11/02/2009Quarterly Financial and Operating Information
03/02/2009Hayward Pledges to Keep BP on Course, with Output Rise and E...
15/01/2009Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Agrees To Join TN...
09/01/2009Sign Deal To Align Interests and Boost Value of Russian Join...
06/01/2009Lamar Mckay To Lead BP America
03/12/2008Asset Exchange Strengthens BP Position In Southern North Sea
26/11/2008Energy Trends and Climate Change: A Road ahead for Governmen...
04/09/2008and AAR Move to Resolve Joint-Venture Dispute
02/09/2008Chesapeake Energy Corporation and BP America Announce Fayett...
06/08/2008and Verenium announce significant partnership to accelerate ...
28/07/2008Series of Oil Developments Gets Go Ahead in Angola Block 31
25/07/2008Pledges Continued Robust Support for TNK-BP CEO Robert Dudle...
18/07/2008Global newsletter
03/07/2008Signs as London 2012 Partner
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