Articles related to Gold backwardation
Antal E. Fekete - Gold University
The Vanishing Of The Gold Basis and... 
The gold basis is defined as the difference between the nearby futures price and the cash price of gold in the same location. A positive basis is called contango; a negative one, backwardation. Since there were no organized futures markets in gold prior to 1971, the history of gold basis is confined to the last 35 or so years Gold futures trading started on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange in Canada in 1971 at a time when ownership and trading of gold was still illegal in the United States. Upon becoming legal the bulk of gold futures
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Antal E. Fekete - Gold University
More dress rehearsal for the last contango
You have to remember that the basis is widely used as a guide in the huge arbitrage operations between gold holdings and dollar balances and in the gold carry trade. To participate in this arbitrage you must have gold on deposit in Comex warehouses. But with the vanishing of the gold basis the profitability of this arbitrage as well as that of the gold carry trade has been drying up, which explains the dwindling of warehouse stocks.
Saturday, January 9, 2021
Antal E. Fekete - Gold University
Forward Thinking On Backwardation
Thursday, October 8, 2020
Antal E. Fekete - Gold University
  The Supply of Oxen at the IMF
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Antal E. Fekete - Gold University
Remobilize Gold To Save The World Economy!
Let me explain. Gold is the only ultimate extinguisher of debt. Other extinguishers do, of course, exist but they are not ultimate in that they have a counterpart in the liability column of the balance sheet of someone else. Gold has no such liability attached to it. Gold is where the buck stops. It is this property
Tuesday, May 5, 2020
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
What’s the Point
A reader emailed us, to ask a few pointed questions. Paraphrasing, they are: Who cares if dollars are calculated in gold or gold is calculated in dollars? People care only if their purchasing power has grown. What is the basis good for? Is it just mathematical play for gold theorists? How does knowing the basis help your readers? Is it just a theoretical explanation of what has already happened? Prove that if someone has known the basis for the last four years, he has benefitted. He also added
Monday, December 4, 2017
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
A Hint of Gold Backwardation, Report 15 Jan, 2017
Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising. What could cause this? One thing is for sure. It is not about the quantity of dollars. This theory is as popular as ever
Monday, January 16, 2017
Darryl Robert Schoon - Survive the Crisis
2016 - Gold and Silver Rising
A GOLD AND SILVER BOTTOM MAY BE INWe see the surface yet think it the whole; then discuss for hours what we think that we knowIf a stock has "bottomed out", it means it might have reached its low point and could be in the early stages of an upward trend. Investors usually see a bottom as an opportunity to purchase securities when they are potentially underpriced.The bottom is used in technical analysis by defining the lowest level of support when charting a stock, commodity, index or economic cy
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Price Moves and Term Structures 20 Sep, 2015
The prices of the metals moved up a bunch this week, with gold + $32 and silver +$0.55. We have seen some discussion of gold backwardation in the context of scarcity, and hence setting expectations of higher prices. That’s good, as the swings from contango to backwardation and back are the only way to understand changing supply and demand in the market. You should be cautious about trading yesterday’s news. There was indeed backwardation in gold and silver. However, the cobasis is a sensitive in
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
The right way to think about gold supply
Here's the wrong way to think about gold supply: "Although gold's aboveground inventory is huge compared to current production, only a tiny fraction of this gold will usually be available for sale near the current price. Therefore, changes in mine supply can be important influences on the gold price." I'll now explain the right way to think about gold supply.Whenever I point out that the supply side of the gold market consists of the entire aboveground gold inventory, which is probably somewhere
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 9 August, 2015
Last week, we left off with this. “Something is happening with gold…” It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit, which currently has nontrivial value. A dollar is worth 28.4mg gold. To understand the second, let’s look at how markets work at the mechanical level. Regular readers of this Report know that we emphasize the bid and ask prices as separate values. The people and forces involved in the
Monday, August 10, 2015
Chris Powell - GATA
Unprecedented backwardation in gold, Turk tells USAWatchdog
GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells USAWatchdog's Greg Hunter that he has never seen such a long period of backwardation in the gold market. Turk says that "the money bubble" is getting ready to pop. His interview is 26 minutes long and can be watched at USAWatchdog here:
Friday, August 7, 2015
Bill Holter - Miles Franklin
Debt is BETTER than cash …Who’s running this asylum anyway
Two days ago Reuters reported the 3 month “Euribor” went into negative interest rate territory .  In this missive I will try to make sense of this as to “why or how” this could happen.  I do not believe there is an answer other than the madness and insanity of being locked in a “short squeeze” room with the exits being blocked. Over the last three years we have seen gold trade many times in backwardation, James Turk has reported this again is occurring in London.  The only explanations for this
Thursday, April 23, 2015
Darryl Robert Schoon - Survive the Crisis
The Price of Gold and the Art of War, Part IV
If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float bySun Tzu, The Art of War, 5th century BCWHITHER GOLDAfter the 1999 gold crisis, bankers could no longer force the price of gold lower by loaning central bank gold and selling it in the open market. In 2001, as demand?and the price of gold?rose, the bankers were forced to flood markets with discounted ?paper gold?, gold futures, i.e. paper promises of future gold deliveries at lower prices, in order to contain gold?s ris
Saturday, January 10, 2015
David Jensen
LBMA Implosion By Reversal of its Own Gold Leverage
Discussion notes: 1. Gold Market: GOFO negative, surging gold lease rates, gold price backwardation 1-month GOFO or Gold Forward rate (GOFO = LIBOR - gold lease rate) has been negative for 30 days now and 6-month GOFO has been negative for 14 days for the first time on record. 1 month gold lease rate surged from 0% on Sept 17 to 0.72% on December 1 - ind
Sunday, December 7, 2014
Chris Powell - GATA
Gold's backwardation worsens despite rising price, Turk tells KWN
Gold's price has been rising but its backwardation has been worsening, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News tonight, adding that while the war against gold by central planners remains fierce, they will lose just as they lost upon the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Chris Powell - GATA
Turk says mining shares have never been been cheaper, mining executives are clueless
In an hour-long interview with the TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk says, among other things: -- Shares of monetary metals mining companies have never been cheaper. -- Gold backwardation has never been as severe, indicating massive intervention by central banks against gold. -- The World Gold Council and most monetary metals mining companies are not defending gold's role as money, nor defending the industry itself, as most mining company executiv
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Chris Powell - GATA
Fraser Murrell: Permanent gold backwardation means a worldwide financial meltdown 
Australian scholar Fraser Murrell, a mathmetician and former stockbroker, argues today in commentary posted at MineWeb that, as the economist Antal Fekete has written, permanent backwardation in gold is the great threat to the world financial system, at least as it is now constituted as a fiat money system. "Sooner or later," Murrell writes, "the bullion banks and governments will run out of ammunition and they will be forced to step back and allow the market to do its thing. Which is to repea
Sunday, November 9, 2014
David Jensen
Gold Manipulation - For Adults Only
MP3: Discussion between Jay Taylor and David Jensen on Monday November 3, 2014. Topics 1. Petrodollar - Russia, China, and other countries are forced to structure a new monetary system due to the unsustainbility of the Western monetary system and central bank policy. Russia's assets seem to be a target of interest (again) for Western banking interests (again). False crisis created in Ukraine by US State Department neocon Victoria Nulan
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
A Signal of Coming Collapse 
I proposed seven drivers of financial implosion in my dissertation. My recent writing has focused on two of them. One is the falling rate of interest on the 10-year government bond. As interest falls, the burden of debt rises. Since the falling rate incentivized more and more people to borrow, the number of indebted people, businesses, corporations, and of course governments is large. When the rate gets to zero, the burden of debt becomes theoretically infinite. In the US, the downward trend is
Thursday, November 6, 2014