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Mish - Global Economic Analysis
GM Says “Market is Definitely Slowing” Lowers Outlook for Vehicle Sales
Reuters reports GM Lowers Outlook for U.S. 2017 New Vehicle Sales, but not by enough in my estimation. General Motors Co now expects U.S. new vehicle sales in 2017 will be in the “low 17 million” unit range, reflecting a widespread expectation that the industry is headed for a moderate downturn, a top executive said on Monday. “The market is definitely slowing … it’s something we are going to monitor month to month,” Chief Financial Officer Chuck Stevens told analysts on a conference call. “Pri
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Italy agrees to €17bn bailout of two more banks in biggest ever rescue plan
Independent/Sonia Sirletti & Alexander Weber/06-26-17 Italy will commit as much as €17bn to clean up two failed banks in one of its wealthiest regions, the nation’s biggest rescue on record. The intervention at Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca includes state support for Intesa Sanpaolo to acquire their good assets for a token amount, Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said Sunday after an emergency cabinet meeting in Rome. Milan-based Intesa can initially tap about €5.2bn to take on so
Monday, June 26, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Macron, Brexit Talks and Gold
On Sunday, Macron won the majority in the French parliamentary election, while Brexit negotiations started on Monday. What do these events mean for the gold market? After the first round, we noted that Macron’s party was projected to win a landslide victory. Indeed, the new president won a commanding majority in the parliamentary election, crushing the opposition. Although the results were not as high as anticipated one week ago, La République en Marche won 350 of the 577 seats in the National A
Friday, June 23, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
U.S. Economic Surprise Index and Gold
The Citi U.S. Macro Economic Index has recently plunged. What does it imply for the gold market? The chart presented below has recently gained popularity. As one can see, the U.S. economic data has recently disappointed expectations. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index plunged in June to its lowest level since August 2011. Chart 1: Citi U.S. Macro Surprise Index and S&P 500 Index from 2015 to 2017. Source: The index measures how actual data readings compare with expectations. A rea
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
May Retail Sales, CPI, Other Data and Gold
Last week, a few important U.S. economic reports were released. What do they imply for the gold market? The recent days were eventful. The Fed hiked interest rates, the U.S. Treasury unveiled its deregulation plan, and several important pieces of economic news were published. First of all, retail sales fell 0.3 percent in May following a 0.4 percent rise in April. The number was below expectations. Actually, it marked the worst decline since January 2016. However, the drop was mainly caused by a
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Treasury Report on Financial Deregulation and Gold
Last week, the U.S. Treasury issued a report on financial reforms. What does it mean for the gold market? As we reported a few days ago, the Financial Choice Act was passed by the House. But it’s not the only important event on the deregulation front. On June 12, the U.S. Department of the Treasury unveiled its plan to overhaul the financial regulations implemented after the 2008 financial crisis, which hamper economic growth. As U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin said: “Properly structur
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Fed’s Normalization Plan and Gold
On Wednesday, the Fed issued addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. What does it mean for the gold market? The FOMC not only hiked interest rates at its last meeting, but also laid out a plan to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. In the May edition of the Market Overview, we wrote that the normalization process “will be passive, gradual and well communicated to the market. And the size of the balance sheet will not return to the pre-crisis level.” Indeed, the Committee “
Saturday, June 17, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
June FOMC Meeting and Gold
Yesterday, the Fed hiked its interest rates for the fourth time during the current tightening cycle. What does it imply for the gold market? In line with expectations and our Wednesday’s preview, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. This way, the U.S. central bank delivered the first hike since March, and the fourth rate increase in the post-crisis period. As there were not any other significant changes in the monetary statement, the most important paragraph of the released 
Thursday, June 15, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Financial Choice Act, FOMC Preview and Gold
Last week, the House approved a bill dubbed the “Financial Choice Act.” What does it imply for the gold market? And what should we expect from today’s FOMC meeting? On Thursday, when the investors focused on Comey’s testimony, Republicans voted to pass the Financial Choice Act which scales back or eliminates many of the regulations introduced by the Dodd-Frank bill. The bill passed 233-186 with 11 members abstaining. The legislation is believed by Republicans to provide regulatory relief for sma
Thursday, June 15, 2017
Bullion Vault
Silver 'Undervalued' on Ratio to Gold as UK Eyes 'Soft Brexit', Traders See 95 Chance of Fed Rate Hike
GOLD and SILVER prices slipped again Tuesday in all major currencies, retreating to one- and 3-week lows respectively as world stock markets rallied despite fresh political wrangling and uncertainty around the UK's general election and looming Brexit negotiations. One-time Conservative leadership candidate Michael Gove – now returned to front-bench politics – claimed Prime Minister Theresa May is willing to "work with" the oppositio
Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
French Parliamentary Election and Gold
On Sunday, the first round of French legislative election was held. What does it mean for the gold market? Although analysts focus now on the U.K., it’s also worth analyzing the impact of the French general election. Just one month after his presidential triumph, Macron enjoyed another incredible success. His newly formed political party (which did not even exist several months ago), La République En Marche (REM), took a huge step forward in Sunday’s first-round election. According to Ipsos, the
Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Trump’s Speech in Cincinnati, Super Thursday and Gold
On Wednesday, Trump gave a speech in Cincinnati. What does it imply for the gold market? Trump’s speech in Cincinnati was an important event, as the POTUS presented his infrastructure plan. As Vice President Mike Pence said as he was introducing Trump, “Starting today, this president will take historic steps to keep his promise to rebuild America.” Trump proposed $1 trillion for infrastructure – that amount would consist of federal government spending of $200 billion in cash. The rest, $800 bill
Friday, June 9, 2017
Egon von Greyerz - Matterhorn AM
by Egon von Greyerz The general public doesn’t like hearing what some of us who are Cassandras have to say. Because our message is does not fit in with the choir of propaganda and lies. We are predicting a future for the world which is unpleasant for most people and therefore few believe our predictions. It is part of human nature to believe that the current state of affairs will go on forever. And that is the case whether times are good or bad. In bad times, everyone believes that it will n
Friday, June 9, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Four Scenarios for Gold
The latest edition of the In Gold We Trust report lists four scenarios for gold. What are they? On Monday, we provided a short summary of the annual “In Gold We Trust” report. However, we did not manage to cover the whole 169-page publication. Hence, today we would like to address the four scenarios for gold mentioned by the authors of the publication. These alternatives are as follows: Scenario A: “Relatively strong real economic growth”. The U.S. economy begins to grow strongly, while inflati
Thursday, June 8, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Qatar Crisis and Gold
This week, the Arab world’s biggest powers cut ties with Qatar. What does it mean for the gold market? On Monday, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic relations with Qatar (Yemen, the Maldives, Libya and Mauritania followed suit). They also suspended air, land and sea travel to and from the country, triggering food hoarding in anticipation of supply shortages (about 80 percent of Qatar’s food demand is satisfied by produce from abroad). The diplomatic cris
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
In Gold We Trust Report 2017
Last week, the 2017 edition of the In Gold We Trust report was released. What can we learn from this publication? As always in June, Incrementum AG published its annual “In Gold We Trust” report - the full and short version of which can be downloaded here. For those who do not have time to read a 169-pages publication (a compact version consists of 29 pages), we provide a short summary. The main idea of the report is the usual call for buying the yellow metal, as gold “is in a bull market again,
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 2 – When
In the first part of the “Preparing for THE Bottom” series, we emphasized the need to be sure to stay alert and focused on the precious metals market, even though it may not appear all that interesting. We argued that preparing for the big moves in gold that are likely to be seen later this year should prove extremely worth one’s while. The why issue that we discussed last week is closely related to when and the link is much closer than it appears. Many people quite often start doing things righ
Monday, June 5, 2017
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Stunning: Italy says NO to bail-in scenario’s
Whereas most bank clients accepted a bail-in as one of the risks associated with depositing cash on a bank account, Italy doesn’t seem to be too sure about forcing its banks to do so. We all know the never-ending issues related to Banca Monte Dei Paschi, but that bank wasn’t Italy’s only problem. Two smaller banks, Banco Popolare di Vicenza and Vento Banca also need to be rescued. Although these banks are definitely smaller than Monte Paschi, and wouldn’t have a huge impact on the internationa
Monday, June 5, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Withdrawal from Paris Agreement and Gold
Yesterday, President Trump announced his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord. What does it mean for the gold market? On Thursday, Trump declared that the United States was getting out from the global climate pact: “In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord.” The news shocked many people, as the agreement was reached by 195 countries in 2015 in order to limit global warming to 2 deg
Saturday, June 3, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Gold One Week before British Election
There is only one week left before the U.K. general election. What are the current polls and what do they mean for the gold market? When the campaign started some polls gave the Conservative Party almost twice as much votes as the Labour Party – in short, a landslide victory was the most likely outcome. However, Theresa May’s lead in polls has recently narrowed. She is still expected to win, but she blew a huge advantage. Actually, the Tories may lose some seats. As one can see in the chart belo
Thursday, June 1, 2017