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Articles related to Recession
 
USA GOLD - USA Gold
The Daily Market Report
USAGOLD/Peter Grant/05-23-17 Gold was unable to sustain the earlier intraday rebound, falling back into the daily range. The choppy trade comes as a result of a mixed bag of economic data, dovish FedSpeak, much ado about President Trump’s budget proposal and ongoing concerns about his broader economic agenda. Markit PMI data were mixed with services better than expected and manufacturing missing expectations. The Richmond Fed index tumbled to 1 in May, below expectations of 15, vs 20 in April. N
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Decentralization-The Future Of Monetary Value
Of all the things I’ve observed in my three decades of financial market watching, none baffles me more than the idiocy of the Charlie Brown-like “traders” that buy paper gold and silver contracts on the COMEX, only to have the “football” pulled out by “Cartel Lucy” time and time again. Albert Einstein put it best when he defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results”; and in my view, nothing is more insane than betting against a “house” run by the
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors
Markets Should Fear Central Banks More Than Trump
Trump’s economic agenda has become further delayed by what seems like daily leaks from the White House. This may finally bring about the long-awaited equity market pullback of at least 5 percent. However, what will prove to be far more troubling than Trump’s ongoing feuds with the DOJ and the press, is the upcoming market collapse due to the removal of the bids from global central banks. The markets have been feeding off artificial interest rates from our Federal Reserve and that of the European
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Greek Debt Groundhog Day: Deal Collapses After 8 Hours of Negotiation
Yet another Greek debt cliffhanger is in the works. After eight hours of intense negotiations, Greece, EU creditors, and the IMF did not reach agreement on restructuring Greek Debt. However, a big debt repayment does not come until July so negotiations will drag on and on. In the past, there was always a last minute deal. Will it be any different this time? Bloomberg reports Greek Deal on Debt Relief Founders as Talks Stretch to June. After nearly eight hours of talks and multiple draft compro
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Frank Shostak
"Priming the Pump" Won't Create Real Wealth
Once an economy falls into recession many commentators tend to express concern that as a result of the economic slump there are now underutilized capital and labor. Resources that can be used are now made unemployed. It is held that the key factor behind this is an insufficient demand for goods and services.Once it is accepted that this key factor is associated with insufficient demand these commentators take the view that what is required is to somehow boost overall demand in the economy.With s
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Andy Sutton
More ‘Not-So-USFed’ Doubletalk – Consumer Health
There was some good news and some not so good news in the Fed’s latest annual Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households. First the good news. The report, based on the Board’s fourth annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted in October 2016, presents a “picture of improving financial well-being among Americans”, at least according to the report (read on to see if this is merited). Overall, 70% of the more than 6,600 respondents said they were either “living comf
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Frank Shostak
How Magical is the Keynesian Multiplier?
For most economists and financial commentators, the heart of economic growth is the increase in the demand for goods and services. The view is that increases or decreases in demand are behind rises and declines in the economy’s production of goods and services. It is also held that the economy’s total output increases by a multiple of the change in expenditure by government, consumers, or businesses.An example will illustrate how an increase in spending raises overall output by a multiple of thi
Sunday, May 21, 2017
Clif Droke
The bull market and Donald Trump's death knell 
In the minds of many investors, the election victory of Donald J. Trump to the United States Presidency was nothing short of a miracle.  Following his shocking victory, expectations were high that Trump would, with the help of Congress, fulfill his promises of tax reform and infrastructure spending.  The lifting of the heavy penalties associated with Obamacare was another hope that investors cherished.  Many hailed his victory by declaring that it was “morning in America” again.But after only si
Sunday, May 21, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
Morning Snapshot: Gold recovers from overseas losses as focus remains on political and geopolitical tensions
USAGOLD/Peter Grant/05-19-17 Gold is trading modestly higher after failing to sustain overseas losses. The yellow metal initially dipped to 1245.10 as the dollar staged a rebound, but the gains in the greenback could not be sustained. Today’s U.S. calendar is empty, so focus will remain squarely on U.S. political turmoil, which is threatening to derail President Trump’s reflation agenda. In the absence of promised fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economy will likely remain confined to tepid growth and
Friday, May 19, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
The Daily Market Report: Gold Surges on Haven Appeal
USAGOLD/Peter Grant/05-17-17 Gold surged back above the 1250 level, as rising political uncertainty threaten to completely derail President Trump’s economic agenda. Stocks are under pressure today as investors retreat from risk assets in favor of safe-havens, such as gold. “If special prosecutors are hired or there is more talk about obstruction of justice being an impeachable offense, one can kiss the tax plan, health care plan, and fiscal stimulus plan goodbye for 2017,” said Andy Brenner, of
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Treasury Yields and Rate Hike Odds Sink: Investigating the Yield Curve
The futures market is starting to question the June rate hike thesis. For its part, the bond market is behaving as if the Fed is hiking the economy into a recession. Here are some pictures. June Rate Hike Odds No Hike in June Odds Month ago – 51% Week Ago – 12.3% Yesterday – 21.5% Today – 35.4% 10-Year Treasury Note Yield The yield on the 10-year treasury note doubled from the low of 1.32% during the week of July 2, 2016, to the high 2.64% during the week of December 10, 2016. Since March 1
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Ronan Manly - Bullion Star
New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle, Switzerland: Part 1
“In the Governor’s absence I attended the meeting in Zijlstra’s room in the BIS on the afternoon of Monday, 10th December to continue discussions about a possible gold pool. Emminger, de la Geniere, de Strycker, Leutwiler, Larre and Pohl were present.”      13 December 1979 – Kit McMahon to Gordon Richardson, Bank of England Introduction A central bank Gold Pool which many people will be familiar with operated in the gold market between November 1961 and March 1968. That Gold Pool was known as t
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
Greek economy sinks back into recession
BBC/05-16-17 Greece has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2012, official figures from Eurostat show. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the first three months of the year after shrinking by 1.2% in the final quarter of 2016. The figures come as Greek unions begin two days of industrial action against cuts to pensions and tax rises insisted on by creditors. Greece is still struggling to secure a new bailout from international lenders.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Will Next Market Crash Be Like 2008 Or 1973? History Predicts An Amazing Run In Gold Gold Stocks
Gold investors are worried about record high valuations in the S&P 500, despite the fact that gold stocks have shown a negative correlation to the general equities since 2011. The reason for this fear? 2008. The market crash of 2008 did not just hurt the S&P, it hurt real estate and gold equities. The sell off was brutal. So was 2008 an isolated incident or does a crash in general equities always spell doom for gold and gold stocks? We examined five previous bear markets starting in 1973 in the
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Out With The Fake, In With The Real!
All weekend, I’ve been debating what to focus on this morning, given all that is “competing” for my attention.  After all, it’s difficult to ignore what I view as the “peak fake” environment of financial market history – as evidenced by the VIX volatility index; itself, a major PPT manipulation target; trading below 11 for a record 15 straight days.  FYI, the previous record was just 10, way back in 2006. This, amidst arguably the worst global political and economic environment of our lifetimes.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
The Daily Market Report: Gold Firms on Geopolitical Tensions, Weaker Dollar
USAGOLD/Peter Grant/05-15-17 Gold firmed in early trading to slightly exceed last week’s high at 1236.51, before retreating into the range. The yellow metal was buoyed by an uptick in geopolitical tensions with North Korea and a retreat in the dollar as soft U.S. data weigh on rate hike expectations. North Korea’s latest test of a missile has ratcheted tensions higher. “The test-firing of ICBMs will occur at any time and place, at the will of North Korea’s highest leadership,” vowed North Korea’
Monday, May 15, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Turns Negative: Welcome News?
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the list of regional surveys by the Fed. The Empire State report turned in a composite reading of -1.0 vs an Econoday consensus expectation of 8.0. Econoday calls this welcome news. Activity in the New York manufacturing region is flattening out this month following a run of unusually strong growth. May’s Empire State index came in at a lower-than-expected minus 1.0 with new orders also moving into the negative column to minus 4.4. Unfilled orders
Monday, May 15, 2017
Chris Ciovacco - Ciovacco Capital Management
Want To Reduce Missteps? Become A Two-Faced Investor
Improving Your Perspective On Markets. We all want: To become better investors. To improve our ability to probabilistically forecast future market outcomes. To reduce daily investment stress. To sleep better at night. If any of the points above apply to our current investment circumstances, it is highly unlikely these issues will be addressed unless we are willing to take an honest inventory of our current approach to the financial markets. Topic Is Timely Stocks have been holdi
Monday, May 15, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Get Rich Quick in Virginia
In response to California Banker: Views from the Business Banker’s Chair I received a pair of emails from readers tuned into Virginia. Livs in Virginia (LIV) writes … Hi Mish Richmond VA, where I live, is inundated with radio commercials to get rich quick by flipping houses. And I’ve seen articles in the paper about flippers. I, too, viewed this as being indicative of a top. We’ve also seen a huge surge in new restaurants. There has been a really big surge has been in microbreweries, and its no
Sunday, May 14, 2017
Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
More on the Depression of 1921
I sure have been talking about monetary topics exclusively for a long time now. It will be nice to talk about something else someday. But, it is apparent that there is still quite a bit more work to do regarding the Interwar Period. First, I will do a little background work — today, that means a little closer look at the “Depression” (anyway, a sharp recession) of 1920-21, now informed by Jim Grant’s rather excellent book on the topic. February 23, 2017: James Grant Explains How A Crash In 1921
Sunday, May 14, 2017
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