Articles related to Recession
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Looking Quite Recessionary
Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching the yield curve flatten for months on end. The flattening is taking shape in an unusual manner, with yields at the long end of the curve generally declining and yields at the short end of the curve rising. Treasury Yields 2000-2017 That chart is as of the end-of-day on September 20 following the interest rate and balance sheet reduction announcement by the FOMC. The curve flattened again today. The above pattern is quite unusual. In most prior recessi
Friday, September 22, 2017
Mark O'Byrne -
Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”
Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession – Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle? – 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession – Total global debt at all time high – see chart – Global debt is 327% of world GDP – ticking timebomb… – Gold has beaten the market (S&P 500) so far this century – Safe haven demand to increase on debt and equity risk – Gold looks very cheap compared to overbought markets – Important to diversify into safe haven g
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons”
In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks. “Rule of Total Morons” A new bull market in gold started in late 2015 concurrently with the Fed’s first rate hike. That is no coincidence. The gold market is highly sensitive to future changes in liquidity. The more tightening mo
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Rick Ackerman
Fed-Speak Translated into Plain Truth
Talk is cheap, never moreso than when it comes from the mouths of the charlatans and quacks who run the Federal Reserve. Their latest “plan” is to start selling assets from the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October; tightening perhaps 25 basis before 2018; then tightening three more times next year.  Translation: We will initially unload whatever crap the traffic will bear, which could be zilch; we will continue to talk the talk as brazenly as possible, pretending that 25 basis points of
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Mark O'Byrne -
“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come ...
By Zero Hedge In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the “Next Financial Crisis”, and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash. In our first take on the report yesterday, we showed one key aspect of the “crash” calculus: between bonds and stocks, global asset prices are the m
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Spanish Government Fearmongering: “Catalonia Faces Brutal Impoverishment If Leave Wins”
On October 1, Catalans head to the polls to vote yes or no on separation from Spain. The Spanish government and constitutional court claim the referendum is illegal but 700 Catalonia mayors say the vote will take place. Today Madrid launched a major fearmongering campaign: Catalonia Faces ‘Brutal’ Impoverishment If It Leave, Spain Warns. “The general impoverishment of the society would be brutal. GDP could fall between 25 and 30 percent and unemployment double,” Economy Minister Luis De Guindo
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Frank Shostak
  What Is the Correct Amount of Money?
Most economists believe that a growing economy requires a growing money stock, on the grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money, which must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services, which in turn will destabilize the economy and lead to an economic recession or, even worse, depression.Since growth in money supply is of such importance, it is not surprising that economists are continuously searching for the
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Michael J. Kosares - USAGold
Prominent establishment economist William White warns “More dangers now than 2007”
First a quick background check on William White so we know whether or not to grant his opinions more weight and status than the average analyst, this from an older, but still functional, Economist article titled The curious case of Willliam White(September, 2012): “Most recently, we have William White, a brilliant Canadian economist who used to do research at the Bank of England and the BIS before taking over the Economic Development and Review Committee at the OECD.
Sunday, September 17, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Three Massive Bubbles in 17 Years: When Will This One Bust? A 60 Decline Coming?
John Hussman’s presents a message no one wants to hear because nearly everyone is too busy believing for the third time in 17 years that “It’s different this time”. Last week Hussman wrote about Valuations, Sufficient Statistics, and Breathtaking Risks. This week it’s more of the same with his post Behind the Potemkin Village. The markets are so overvalued now that Hussman expects a 60% decline from here. There’s an apocryphal story that in 1787, during the journey of Empress Catherine II to C
Saturday, September 16, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
“Bad Options” Regarding 2 Inflation Targets (And Other Silly Notions)
The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both posted ridiculous articles regarding today regarding inflation. The former was on “bad options” the latter on “inflation expectations”. Let’s take a look at both articles because both represent widely believed nonsense. In Bad Options for Addressing Too-Low Inflation, Wall Street Journal writer Greg Ip says the Fed’s choice is to overheat the economy or give up its 2% target. Unemployment and inflation are near their lowest levels in decades. Who would
Friday, September 15, 2017
Jason Hamlin - Gold Stock Bull
Harvey, Irma, Gold and Bad Options
In the Previous Three Weeks: Gold rose over $1,330. Silver reached $18.00. The DOW almost reached another all-time high. Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Texas coast, flooded Houston, and caused massive damage. Hurricane Irma crashed into Florida and created flooding and huge damage, although a late move west reduced potential destruction. China is preparing a crude oil contract that will allow oil exporters to sell their crude on a Chinese exchange and be paid in yuan, which can be sold on a
Friday, September 15, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Rickards: “Next Financial Crisis 6-8 Months Away” Got Popcorn? Gold?
In a Daily Mail interview, Jim Rickards says the next financial crisis is eight months away, will be BIGGER than the last and triggered by war with North Korea. “It is inevitable, it will hit us in the next six to eight months,” claims Rickards. My Response Armchair pundits calling for Trump to take out North Korea do not remotely understand the risks.Think Seoul & China — Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 3, 2017 First time I've identified time & type of snow
Thursday, September 14, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
GDPNow vs Nowcast: When Will Hurricane Adjustments Take Place?
On Friday, GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast both posted third-quarter GDP estimates. GDPNow stands at 3.0%. The Nowcast is at 2.1%. Inquiring minds may be wondering what Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will do to their models. First, let’s review the latest forecasts. GDPNow Forecast: 3.0 Percent — September 8, 2017 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on September 8, up from 2.9 percent on September 6. The forecast o
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Peter McKenzie-Brown - Language Instinct
The Suncor Story
This article is largely the text of a presentation I recently gave for the launch of my latest book.  The well-attended event took place at the Glenbow Museum in Calgary.  The image above is a map of Alberta’s oil sands, and its purpose is to orient you geographically to the oil sands themselves. I have registered the book as a Canada 150 publication, so it sports that logo. In global terms, the oil sands are the world’s second-largest petroleum resource. Only Venezuela has more bitumen
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Mark O'Byrne -
British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars
– British people suddenly stopped buying cars – Massive debt including car loans, very low household savings – Brexit and decline in sterling and consumer confidence impacts – New cars being bought on PCP by people who could not normally afford them – UK car business has ‘exactly the same problems’ as the mortgage market 10 years ago, according to Morgan Stanley – Bank of England is investigating to make sure UK banks are not overly exposed… – Prudent British people buying gold with cash, not ca
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Revisiting the US yield curve
In a blog post in February of last year I explained that an inversion of the US yield curve has never been a recession signal. Instead, the genuine recession signal has always been the reversal in the curve from ‘flattening’ (short-term interest rates rising relative to long-term interest rates) to ‘steepening’ (short-term interest rates falling relative to long-term interest rates) after an extreme is reached. It just so happens that under normal monetary conditions an extreme usually isn’t rea
Monday, September 11, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Highly Unusual US Treasury Yield Pattern Not Seen Since Summer of 2000
Curve watchers anonymous has taken an in-depth review of US treasury yield charts on a monthly and daily basis. There’s something going on that we have not see on a sustained basis since the summer of 2000. Some charts will show what I mean. Monthly Treasury Yields 3-Month to 30-Years 1998-Present It’s very unusual to see the yield on the long bond falling for months on end while the yield on 3-month bills and 1-year note rises. It’s difficult to spot the other time that happened because of nu
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Chris Martenson
Who’s Going To Eat The Losses?
Unsustainable. Many more people need to understand what that word really means, and how it applies to pretty much everything in the current human living arrangement. Especially the so-called 'developed' nations. Here’s the dictionary definition: Let's take these three definitions one at a time. First: our entire economic model, which dependent on borrowing at a faster rate than income (GDP) grows, is something that simply cannot be maintained at its current rate or level. Check. Second: depleti
Saturday, September 9, 2017
Lew Rockwell
  What's Killing the Jobs Market? 
The terrible job market has vexed an entire generation. It shows no hope of improving anytime soon. Young people are shut out. College students are taking refuge in matriculation without end. Thirty-somethings are zoning out in their parents' basements and attics. Despair for the future has become a theme of American public life. The question we must ask is: why is unemployment stuck at 10% in the narrowest measure and as high as 30% for some demographics?
Friday, September 8, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Will Gold Break Out of Sideway Trading?
Since July 11, gold has been in a short-term upward trend. The yellow metal has gained more than 8 percent since then until the end of August, mainly thanks to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, as one can see in the chart below. Chart 1: Gold prices (yellow line, left axis, London P.M. fix) and the U.S. dollar index (red line, right axis, trade weighted index against major currencies). The U.S. dollar index declined because of political turmoil in the Trump administration and the narrowing
Friday, September 8, 2017