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Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Addressing Keith Weiner’s objections to “Gold’s True Fundamentals”
A 23rd June post at the TSI Blog described the model (the Gold True Fundamentals Model – GTFM) that I developed to indicate the extent to which the fundamental backdrop is bullish for gold. The GTFM is an attempt to determine a single number that incorporates the most important fundamental drivers of the gold price, where I define “fundamental driver” as something that happens in the economy or the financial markets that causes an increasing desire/urgency to own gold in some form. Keith Weiner
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Florian Grummes - The Silver GoldSpot
The Midas Touch Gold Model – Update 26th of June 2017
Our Midas Touch Gold Model remains in neutral/sideways mode.While the "CoT-Report" signal improved to neutral we got two new sell signals. One comes from the SPDR Gold trust Holdings. The other one is likely more important and was issued by the US-Dollar who seems to get ready for a bounce/recovery over the coming weeks. A stronger dollar should at least limit the precious metals sector for a couple of weeks.   (Click to enlarge) Technically gold was able to bounce off the 1,240 USD level. The t
Monday, June 26, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Stocks At Record Highs: Market Sentiment Still Bullish
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearishShort-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearishMedium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutralLong-term outlook (next year): neutralThe U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.5% on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following economic data, quarterly earnings
Monday, June 26, 2017
Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
Fumbling and Bumbling
As part of our continuing investigations into the Interwar Period, we’ve been looking at a funny episode in 1937. June 18, 2017: The “Gold Sterilization” of 1937 October 2, 2017: The Interwar Period, 1914-1944 I think it has been productive to spend all this time on the 1930s. I feel like we are airing out a lot of past confusion and trauma. Of course, many people may not agree with my interpretations and conclusions. But, along the way, they might get the data and materials to come to their own
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Andy Sutton
Goldman Sachs ‘Discovers’ that the ‘not-so-USFed’ has Caused Most Recessions
One week ago, Deutsche Bank issued a loud warning that as a result of the aging of the current economic expansion, now the third longest in history at 32 quarters, if with the lowest average growth rate of just 2%… …. coupled with the collapse in the yield curve… … and the risk that the Fed could fall behind the inflationary curve as a result of near record low unemployment (assuming the Phillips urve still works which it doesn’t)… … the risk is growing that the Fed could hike rates right int
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Gold Summer Doldrums
Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders.  Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play.  Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year, on waning investment demand as vacations divert attention from markets.  But these summer doldrums offer the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year. This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Gold’s True Fundamentals
To paraphrase Jim Grant, gold’s perceived value in US$ terms is the reciprocal of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. Consequently, what I refer to as gold’s true fundamentals are measures of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. I’ve been covering these fundamental drivers of the gold price in TSI commentaries for almost 17 years. It doesn’t seem that long, but time flies when you’re having fun. No
Saturday, June 24, 2017
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The Post “Rate-hike” Manipulations-Are Nearly Dead
In 15 years of Cartel, PPT, and Fed “watching,” I’ve not seen anything like the manipulations since Election Day – which is quite amazing, considering the powers that be were clearly aligned with the status quo fronted by Hillary Clinton, and her band of criminal bankers, corporate CEOs, globalist politicians, and “fake news” mainstream media.  Why “they” chose to double down their manipulative efforts when the “Red Swan” fought through their historic election-rigging to win the Presidency is be
Saturday, June 24, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
The Daily Market Report: Gold Edges Higher on the Week
USAGOLD/Peter Grant/06-23-17 Gold is modestly higher after bouncing from in front of important trendline/moving average support at 1241.30/1235.82 midweek. At this point, the yellow metal is slightly higher on the week. A higher close today would break the string of lower weekly closes in the two previous weeks and confirm a simple hook reversal on the weekly chart. Dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, show that Minneapolis Fed dissenter Neel Kashkari is not a lone voice i
Friday, June 23, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Macron, Brexit Talks and Gold
On Sunday, Macron won the majority in the French parliamentary election, while Brexit negotiations started on Monday. What do these events mean for the gold market? After the first round, we noted that Macron’s party was projected to win a landslide victory. Indeed, the new president won a commanding majority in the parliamentary election, crushing the opposition. Although the results were not as high as anticipated one week ago, La République en Marche won 350 of the 577 seats in the National A
Friday, June 23, 2017
Gary Tanashian - Biwii
Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride?
By Gary TanashianIn line with our bullish forward view on USD, behold the very bearish state of the Commercial Hedger positions in the Euro (courtesy of Sentimentrader). Recent historical data speaks for itself. It appears a decline in the Euro is imminent (which, in market terms means ‘relax, it could be a while yet’ ).The next question is, when Uncle Buck rides will he ride alone or will he have the other rider at his side? The 2 Horsemen would be the bringers of pain in the form of liquidity
Friday, June 23, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
EUR/JPY Exchange Rate and Gold
We argued many times that the yellow metal behaves as a currency rather than as a commodity. Hence, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rates affect the price of gold. In previous editions of the Market Overview, we analyzed the impact of the U.S. dollar and its exchange rate with the Euro and the Yen on the gold market. We pointed out that gold is negatively correlated with the greenback, so it moves in tandem with the Japanese or European common currency, as they are the major rivals o
Friday, June 23, 2017
Andy Sutton
Americans Dying an Average of $61,500 in Debt
According to a recent study, the average total household debt in America is just over $132,500, broken down as per the chart below… … and thanks to the Fed’s recent and ongoing rate increases, the repayment of said debt will become increasingly more difficult. So difficult, in fact, that most Americans will be saddled with a sizable chunk of it at the time of their death. Actually, most already are. According to December 2016 data from credit bureau Experian provided to credit.com, 73% of Ameri
Friday, June 23, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Crude Oil, Fresh Lows and Support Zone
On Wednesday, the black gold moved lower once again after government data showed an increase in crude oil production, which offset a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude hit a fresh 2017 low. What’s next for the commodity? Crude Oil’s Technical Picture Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). Yesterday, we wrote: (…) crude oil extended losses and hit a fresh 2017 low of $42.94. Thanks
Thursday, June 22, 2017
USA GOLD - USA Gold
One striking chart suggests the Fed is making a big mistake
BusinessInsider/Pedro Nicolaci da Costa/06-22-17 The Federal Reserve keeps telling the bond market it wants interest rates to move higher, but traders aren’t listening. That suggests investors don’t believe the Fed’s justification for interest rate increases, which are predicated not only on recent economic improvement but also on a continued bright outlook. One startling chart from Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards illustrates the Fed’s dilemma. Two-year notes are historically the maturity that
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
U.S. Economic Surprise Index and Gold
The Citi U.S. Macro Economic Index has recently plunged. What does it imply for the gold market? The chart presented below has recently gained popularity. As one can see, the U.S. economic data has recently disappointed expectations. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index plunged in June to its lowest level since August 2011. Chart 1: Citi U.S. Macro Surprise Index and S&P 500 Index from 2015 to 2017. Source: zerohedge.com The index measures how actual data readings compare with expectations. A rea
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Bullion Vault
Gold Bullion 'Set to Recover' as Stocks Fall 3rd Day on Global Crude Oil Glut
GOLD BULLION halved a 1% rally from yesterday's new 5-week lows against the Dollar on Thursday, dipping back below $1250 per ounce as world stock markets fell for a third day, pulled down by oil and energy shares. Crude oil traded near 12-month lows around $42 per barrel of US benchmark WTI. Major government bond prices rose, pushing 10-year US Treasury yields down towards their lowest since Don
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie
Only Gold Lasts Forever
This current state of play won’t last forever. Only Gold lasts forever Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in the day to day chat around prices. Some forget that the reasons why they invested are still strong, even if it feels like the price isn’t. Frisby reminds us that ‘We know government finances do not pass basic safety standards. We know there’s too much
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
More Fluctuations Along New Record Highs, Will Stocks Continue Higher?
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearishShort-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearishMedium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutralLong-term outlook (next year): neutralThe U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.7% on Wednesday, as investors continued to hesitate following recent volatility. The S&P 50
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Your Future Wealth Depends on what You Decide to Keep and Invest in Now
Millienials look for instant gratification Spend half of their income on leisure Instant gratification doesn’t work if need to save for the future Savings rates falling, few have retirement funds Important to understand marginal difference between spending and pleasure Future wealth depends on what you decide to keep and invest in now This week the festival of all festivals begins, Glastonbury 2017. Ed Sheeran, Foo Fighters and Barry Gibb will each be singing to the 250,000 revellers who are cu
Thursday, June 22, 2017
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