Articles related to fundamentals
 
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Don’t think like a lawyer
The job of a judge or juror is to impartially weigh the evidence and arguments put forward by both sides in an effort to determine which side has the stronger case. The job of a lawyer is to argue for one side, regardless of whether that side happens to be right or wrong. As a speculator it is important to think like a judge or a juror, not a lawyer. Unlike a lawyer, a speculator can change sides ‘mid-stream’ if necessary to keep himself on the side favoured by the current evidence. There is no
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
Frank Shostak
The Connection Between Money-Supply Growth and Inflation
In the article “Rapid money supply growth does not cause inflation” written by Richard Vague at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, December 2, 2016, the author argues that empirical evidence shows that increases in money supply has nothing to do with inflation. According to Vague,Monetarist theory, which came to dominate economic thinking in the 1980s and the decades that followed, holds that rapid money supply growth is the cause of inflation. The theory, however, fails an actual test of
Thursday, April 9, 2020
Sprott Money
The Secret of Wealth Preservation - Jeff Nielson
We have a failure to communicate. The vast majority of the investment public in the Western world has no understanding – at all – about how to preserve and protect their wealth. Of the minority of the investment community with some understanding of wealth preservation, almost invariably it is a flawed understanding. Understanding wealth preservation begins with having a detailed and correct understanding of “money”. Understanding money begins with correctly comprehending the difference betwe
Monday, December 23, 2019
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
TSI’s Principles of Technical Analysis
Although my primary focus is on the fundamentals, I do use Technical Analysis (TA). However, many of my TA-related beliefs deviate from the mainstream. Below is a collection of these beliefs presented in no particular order. The collection is not comprehensive, but it gives an overview of how I think historical price action can and can’t be used. Note that there is significant repetition in the following list, in that a similar meaning is sometimes conveyed in separate points using different wor
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Frank Shostak
  Why It's Important to Define Money Correctly
Most economists hold that, since the early 1980s, correlations between various definitions of money and national income have broken down. The reason for this breakdown, it is held, is that financial deregulation has made the demand for money unstable. As a result it is held the usefulness of money as a predictor of economic events has significantly diminished.To fix the instability of the demand for money, economists have introduced a gauge of the money supply known as the Divisia monetary indic
Friday, November 15, 2019
Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital
A Gift From The Oldies
By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at I bumped into a friendly bloke at my local gym last week. Jim is his name. Jim tells me he just started because, and I quote, "my doctor says I'm going to die unless I do something". Now, I assure you it doesn't take a doctor to figure this out. One glance in Jim's direction and you can tell that underneath all that weight there's a big struggling heart in there... just ready to explode. He was surprisingly frank and tells me it's so bad that he can o
Monday, August 13, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Standing Ready to Lease Gold
We will take another break from capital destruction, to treat a topic which has come up this week. On March 11, we said: “…central bankers do not think about gold. Granted, they once did. In the 1960’s, there was the now-infamous London Gold Pool to keep the price of gold at $35. This is endlessly cited as evidence of current central bank price suppression, without bothering to mention that until 1971 the official US policy was to maintain the dollar to gold exchange rate of $35 to the ounce. …
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Chris Powell - GATA
Stephen Englander: Why the U.S. Treasury likes a weak dollar
* * * By Steven Englander Bloomberg News Saturday, March 16, 2018 The U.S. Treasury has been stealthily weakening the dollar. It isn’t clear if it is doing so consciously, but since a weaker dollar suits Treasury leadership, there probably isn’t too much concern. The key is that the Treasury is flooding the market with short-term debt that neither domestic nor foreign investors are very interested in buying. The Federal Reserve is capping the yield on the debt with its promises to raise rates g
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Gold Miners’ Q4’17 Fundamentals
The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels.  So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally.  But nothing could be farther from the truth!  The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving.  Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment. Four times a year publicly-traded co
Friday, March 16, 2018
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Are We Going to $1,120 or $1,510 No Matter What, Own Some Gold!
Who will win: bulls or bears? The LBMA published its annual forecast survey for precious metals prices in 2018. Gold prices range from $1,120 to $1,510. Where is the price of the yellow metal headed? Summary of the Survey The views of about 30 analysts in the 2018 forecasts are strongly divergent. The average price of gold is projected to be $1,318, so it is expected to be around the current level, but almost 5 percent higher than the last year’s average of $1,257.12. However, the average gold p
Friday, March 16, 2018
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Will New Fed Chairman Powell Really Allow Rates To Rise
On Tuesday morning Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress. Of note was that right as Howell hinted at a somewhat slightly more hawkish than expected outlook, the bond market sold off. “At the December meeting the median participant called for three rate increases in 2018. Since then, what we’ve seen is incoming data that suggests a strengthening in the economy and continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that in my case will add some confidence to m
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Super-Duper-Irrational Exuberance
Think back to the halcyon days of the dot com boom. This was a time after Greenspan declared “irrational exuberance”. Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998, and Greenspan decided to risk propelling exuberance to a level beyond irrational. Super-duper-irrational exuberance? Anyway, Greenspan cut interest rates a few times in late 1998. Technology companies were able to raise $5 million or more with just a sketch on a napkin (“serviette” for those outside the US). Companies at a “later st
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Where Is The Stock Market Money Going To Go
Given the way markets have stagnated in recent years under unprecedented amounts of central bank management and distortion, it can be easy to think that what’s happening will continue indefinitely. However a recent CNBC report highlighting investor withdrawals from U.S. equity funds during last month’s chaotic market action demonstrates just how quickly sentiment can change. According to a CNBC report,”February’s brutally volatile market saw investors flee U.S. stocks in near-record numbers, and
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Are We in Late Cycle Implications for Gold
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we explored the fascinating history of bull and bear cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the idea of cyclicity doesn’t lead me to drop off, disrupting my sleep cycles. Let’s then dig into the topic. We start with the business cycles, as in the recent Gold News Monitor we wrote that “we are in the late stages of the economic cycle – as the cycle matures, volatility increases and investors start to buy more gold as a hedge.” Why do w
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Cheap Gold Stocks Basing
The small contrarian gold-mining sector remains deeply out of favor, universally ignored.  Thus the gold stocks are largely drifting listlessly, totally devoid of excitement.  But that’s the best time to buy low, when few others care.  The gold stocks continue to form strong technical bases, paving the way for massive mean-reversion uplegs.  And they remain exceedingly cheap relative to gold prices, which drive their profits. Being a gold-stock investor feels p
Friday, March 9, 2018
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Is Gold Worth More Or Less Than Its $1900 High In 2011
One of the challenges with investing in precious metals is that there is so much distortion in the market that figuring out a true fair value is not always the easiest thing to do. Yet there are clues investors can look at that indicate that when the price starts to move, it won’t be by a small amount. Back in 2011 I was still working as an equity options trader on the New York Stock Exchange, and was about two years into my studies of the precious metals market. Following the collapse of the su
Friday, March 9, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Inflation Is Not Under Control
Let’s continue on our topic of capital consumption. It’s an important area of study, as our system of central bank socialism imposes many incentives to consume and destroy capital. As capital is the leverage that increases the productivity of human effort, it is vital that we understand what’s happening. We do not work harder today, than they worked 200 years ago, or in the ancient world. Yet we produce so much more, that obesity is a disease more of the poor than the rich. Destruction of capita
Monday, March 5, 2018
Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie
  Gold $10,000 Goldnomics Podcast Quotations and Transcript
In the latest Goldnomics latest podcast, we consider whether the gold price will reach $10,000 per ounce in the coming years and what factors will drive prices. Watch on YouTube or read the quotations and transcript below. Dave: Hello and welcome to the Goldnomics podcast where we look at global markets through the lens of precious metals. And you can keep your eye out for new episodes on iTunes, on SoundCloud and also on YouTube and you can like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. And wso
Sunday, March 4, 2018
Steve St Angelo - SRSRocco Report
SILVER INVESTMENT: The Lowest Risk, Highest Return Potential vs. Stocks Real Estate
While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates.  Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk.  Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”A prudent investor is able to spot when an asset becomes a high risk and then h
Saturday, March 3, 2018
SRSrocco - SRSRocco Report
SILVER INVESTMENT: The Lowest Risk, Highest Return Potential vs. Stocks and Real Estate
While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates.  Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk.  Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”A prudent investor is able to spot when an asset becomes a high risk and then h
Saturday, March 3, 2018
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