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Cours Or & Argent

Wall Street Math

IMG Auteur
Publié le 17 janvier 2012
348 mots - Temps de lecture : 0 - 1 minutes
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SUIVRE : Canada Europe

 

 

 

 

An article in Canada's Financial Post, "View of U.S. Markets As Isolated From the World ‘Dangerous and Misguided,’" serves as a good primer on Wall Street's cognitively disconnected math:


Combine deteriorating conditions overseas --


The chief market strategist at U.S. Trust Bank of America Private Wealth Management warned against concluding that the relative outperformance of U.S. stocks last year and recent string of strong U.S. economic data mean the country’s equity markets are “decoupling” from the rest of the world.
 
The U.S. economy may be in decent shape — with strong manufacturing and record exports of more than US$2-trillion in 2011 — but the country is not isolated from what happens in Europe or the rest of the world, Mr. Quinlan said in a note to clients Friday.


“In our view, the ‘decoupling’ chatter is dangerous and misguided, since there are plenty of problems and challenges brewing overseas that will be directly or indirectly channeled back into U.S. financial markets,” he said. --


with direct threats to bottom-line profitability --


With half of U.S. foreign affiliate sales coming from Europe, Mr. Quinlan said the ongoing crisis in the region remains a “potential source of earnings disappointment for a number of U.S. firms.” --


heightened geopolitical risks --


Tensions between the United States and Iran and continuing social instability in the Middle East are also a concern, he said.


“We think of it as an ‘arc of instability,’ or a geographic cauldron that could unexpectedly and swiftly rattle the global oil markets and undermine global economic growth.” --


and major global structural imbalances --


Finally, growth in emerging market nations may be a bright spot, but the focus on exports in those countries is “depriving the world economy of badly needed global demand,” he said. --


and what do you get?


Ultimately, Mr. Quinlan said, the economic trends look positive for the United States and the country’s stocks are likely to outperform again this year (he estimates the S&P 500 will end the year in the 1,300 to 1,350 range, up from its current 1,290).


Huh?


Michael J. Panzner 


 

 




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