Who
will win?
In the
upcoming elections, the Republicans are slated to hold the Senate (2.5 to 1
favorites or 71.5 percent chance of winning). The House will go Democrat
(2.21 to 1 favorites or 68.8 percent chance of winning). The Democrats even
have a 57 percent chance of winning 20 House seats, which is 5 more than they
need to gain control. Only some remarkable events between now and then will
alter these results. (All odds are taken from Tradesports contracts.)
There
are 36 elections for governor being held. Republicans will be victors in 14
states: Alabama, Alaska, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho,
Nebraska, Nevada, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and
Vermont.
Democrats
will take 22 states: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois,
Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New
Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
The
Senate races will fall out as follows. GOP wins will occur in Arizona,
Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.
These are all currently Republican seats and all will be held.
Democrats
will win in: California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Minnesota, Montana*, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
North Dakota, Ohio*, Pennsylvania*, Rhode Island*, Virginia*, Washington,
West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The 5 states with asterisks are shifts from
Republican to Democrat.
Lieberman
will win Connecticut. Vermont goes to Sanders.
Missouri
is too close to call.
The
election’s implications
The
beginning of the end for President Bush and his men is already underway. The
polls tell us that. The official voices here and there that are willing to
speak out against the Iraq War tell us that. The Democrat victory will hasten
the downfall of the current crop of Republican leaders.
Sooner
or later, all the rats will desert the sinking ship. People will start
back-stabbing, blowing whistles, writing memoirs, pointing fingers, shifting
blame, selling books, and testifying. Americans will be entertained for a few
months and get some vindictive kicks. They will feel good at kicking the bums
around or watching others do the kicking.
But
will the basic system and directions alter significantly? Will Americans
decide to retrench the American Empire? Will the welfare/warfare state be
chopped down to size? Are Democrats about to alter America’s direction?
The one-sided Congressional votes against Iran provide the answer. Will the
Democrats propose to repeal sanctions against Iran? Asked and answered.
All it
will take is one or a few terrorist incidents to restoke the misguided,
misbegotten, and misconceived War on Terror. And actually it won’t even
take that. The Democrats accept the War on Terror now. They just want to
fight it their way. Meanwhile, Israel and its problems will re-surface in the
headlines. Afghanistan and Iraq will still be here. The neocons will regroup.
The pro-war press will counter-attack.
After
Bush and his men fall and politicians milk his errors for every vote they can
get, the American Empire will go back to business as usual.
Democrat
hearings
The
Democrats plan hearings on such matters as Cheney’s energy task force
and the intelligence leading up to the Iraq War. They have very little to
lose and much to gain by holding these hearings. They will not hold hearings
merely to skewer Bush and his officials, although this will occur. They will
want to be seen as progressive and they will not want to be seen as soft on
terror. They will hold hearings aimed at specific legislation that they will
sell as removing abuses or making the government work more effectively.
They
will hold hearings on and a complete investigation of the conduct of the war
in Iraq. A great many people and institutions are going to be embarrassed,
tongue-lashed, and reprimanded. Great inadequacies of government and the
military forces in the conduct of warfare will be spotlighted. Certain
efficiency-seeking Congressmen will have their day in court. Afterwards the
state will maintain its monopoly on warfare and its Constitutional protection
to operate its wars in the most bloody and inefficient ways that it can.
Hearings
may probably be held on domestic wiretapping. The House may go after the fat
war-related contracts and the contractors used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The
chances of impeachment go up, but the Democrats won’t impeach Bush
unless they see clearly that it buys them votes in the 2008 elections and
thereafter. Impeachment depends on what sorts of dirt or evidence the
hearings bring up. The Democrats will keep their options open.
Democrat
plans
The
election will reinforce and maybe even accelerate the downtrend in the worst
aspects of neoconservative power and policy influence, but it does not mean
the termination of their policies.
The
Democrats will not liquidate the American Empire. They did not do so under
Clinton I, and if we get Clinton II we will simply see Empire in a different
form. We will see some motion toward liquidating the blunders of the past few
years and replacing our disastrous foreign policies with alternatives. But
will these alternatives seriously change America’s direction?
The
main change will be a shift in emphasis. Apart from trying to tone down
Bush’s excesses in foreign policy, the change will be toward domestic
policies, toward wealth redistribution, toward solidifying the welfare state,
and toward action on divisive social issues such as stem-cell research. Tax
rates for those with incomes above $250,000 a year will be raised if the
Democrats have their way. Capital gains rates and estate taxes are up in the
air. There will be action on revising the alternative minimum tax.
9/11
recommendations
Not
widely known is that the Democrats want all of the recommendations of the
9/11 commission to be passed into law. They see an "unfinished
agenda" here. By finishing it, they can claim they are not soft on
terror and that the Republicans veered off in the wrong direction in Iraq.
This can help them in 2008. This is a top item on their agenda.
The
directions that this agenda will take are given in the 9/11 Public Discourse Project. They
include a variety of attempts to make the government bureaucracies more
efficient at providing domestic security. They include such measures as:
supporting education programs for Muslim youth overseas, bringing more Muslim
youth to the U.S. for education, spending more on overseas broadcasting,
defining the U.S. message for democratic government better, standards for
terrorist detention, multilateral terrorism strategy, greater assistance to
Pakistan, long-term assistance to Afghanistan, implement the REAL ID act, a
biometric entry-exit system, comprehensive screening system, more and better
airline passenger screening, etc.
While
here and there are slight glimmers of hope for improvement, such as making
the overall intelligence budget public, this very conservative agenda calls
for more of the same. It’s the Democrat chance to extend big government
under the rubric of homeland security. One cannot expect from a major
American party a significant directional shift away from government control.
One can expect more government spending and control, and that’s what
this initiative is all about.
Madame
Speaker
Nancy
Pelosi will be Speaker of the House. The House Democrats want to win the
presidency in 2008, so they will try to project a legislative program that
raises their chances of success. They will be chairing the committees. This
gives them far greater opportunity to reach and shape public opinion.
The
press reports that Democrats are planning a blitz of legislation. They want
new rules concerning lobbyists and legislation. They want to raise the
minimum wage immediately. They want to bring back the rule that any tax cut
has to be paid for by a spending decrease.
Nancy
Pelosi’s. Her and the Democrats’ solution for the Iraq War looks
like the same wine in a new bottle. She writes: "We propose
transitioning the U.S. mission in Iraq to counter-terrorism, training,
logistics and force protection; working with Iraqi leaders to disarm the
militias and to develop a sustainable political settlement by amending their
Constitution; convening an international conference to support a diplomatic
and political settlement in Iraq to revitalize the stalled economic
reconstruction and rebuilding effort; and beginning the phased redeployment
of U.S. forces from Iraq no latter than December 2006." This is far from
a clear commitment to the American people to end American involvement
quickly.
Moreover,
our next Speaker promises "a full commitment to fighting terrorists in
Afghanistan." Combine this with the 9/11 Public Discourse
recommendations concerning greater funds for Pakistan to end terrorist
training camps, and we then see the outlines of Democrat thinking on how to
combat terrorism. It’s basically to sustain the war in Iraq while
attempting to disengage while expanding the war in Afghanistan with the help
of Pakistan.
So
what will the elections mean? Very little. That is, they mean more of the
same. Yes, there will be changes, but no major changes in America’s
directions. Changing faces does not necessarily change policies or basic
directions.
As
usual, the differences between Democrats and Republicans are not great enough
to launch any serious reform of America’s political system and the many
ills accompanying it. If the two parties need new blueprints for reducing
terrorism, they might search LRC for ideas. On the big issue of foreign war,
they could look here for starters and go from there.
Michael
S. Rozeff
Michael S. Rozeff is a retired Professor of Finance
living in East Amherst, New York. He publishes regularly his ideas and
analysis on www.LewRockwell.com .
Copyright © 2009 by LewRockwell.com. Permission
to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is
given.
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