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A Year For The History Books

IMG Auteur
Publié le 20 décembre 2011
617 mots - Temps de lecture : 1 - 2 minutes
( 2 votes, 4,5/5 ) , 1 commentaire
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SUIVRE : Europe
Rubrique : Or et Argent

 

 

 

 

As the year draws to a close, it’s easy to say that it’s been a difficult one. That’s mainly because of the high volatility in the markets, in reaction to the daily ups and downs on the world stage.


IT’S COMPLICATED


The overall global environment remains complicated, and it’s still having a strong effect on all of the markets (see Chart 1).




Currently, the Fed and other big central banks have come to the world’s rescue, at least for the time being. They’re basically bailing out Europe but there will be a price to pay.


All of this drama and volatility have both raised many questions.  And following are some of the most frequently asked questions we’ve recently received…


Q. If gold is a “safe haven,” why does it go up and down so often with the stock market?


A. Great question and that has been the case lately. This happens at times but over the long haul, gold is the ultimate safe haven and it will go its own way, based on the underlying fundamentals. Over the past decade, for example, gold has risen 645% while the Dow Industrials has only gained 13%. We believe this will continue based on the vulnerable global debt situation, the weak currency markets and many other factors we’ve often discussed. In fact, gold has maintained its safe haven status for thousands of years and there is not another investment, including any currency, that can make that claim.


Q. When you say, use weakness to accumulate gold, does that also apply to silver?


A. Yes.


Q.Is it prudent to invest in the ETFs for gold and silver (GLD and SLV), considering they may not have the necessary amount of metals to cover the shares issued?


A. Yes, this is a risk. Many say there’s proof the metals are there, others are doubtful. The same is true of the gold held by the U.S... These days there’s reason to question just about everything. That’s why we always say, owning physical gold and silver is your best and safest bet. Also, keep it close to you rather than having a third party hold it for you. While the ETFs provide an easy way to buy and profit from the rises in gold and silver, think of them as an index, like the Dow Industrials, rather than as a way to buy gold or silver.


Q. Is gold manipulated?


A. Probably yes, at times. But since the major trend is always more powerful, manipulation effects will be temporary.


Q. How can I learn more about technical analysis?


A. Two great books are How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market by William Jiler and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John Magee. They were published years ago but they’re the best for those who want to learn the basics of technical analysis.


TECHNICAL UPDATE


The metals and their shares also fell sharply last week as gold dropped below its September low.


This means a steeper D decline in gold is underway.  That is, the decline since September is becoming a full on D decline, which is a first in three years.  Chart 2 shows gold now approaching its key 65-week moving average.  Gold could still decline further, to possibly test this major trend, and if it does this would be normal for a D decline move. If gold tests its 65-week moving average near $1525, it would be a 20% decline.




We know this decline is unnerving but keep focused on the big picture and hold your open positions.  Gold is oversold and this is still the time to be buying and accumulating during weakness.


Mary Anne and Pamela Aden



 

 

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What annoys me is that people stampede when there is no fire. The Fed has had a policy of debasing the USD through the "leadership" Greenspan and Bernanke (soulmates). They are easy money guys, afraid of deflation. The Fed's job had been to protect the dollar and often intervened as mandated though agent banks to support the dollar as world reserve in several markets. Then they became worried about trade, because it was the last option left in which the US has even the faintest hope of competing globally.

People say there is no Q-3...there is; it just hasn't been announced. The Fed never stopped printing, and whether the money went to the EU/ECB via the central bank consortium and/or via the IMF, same difference. The brakes have been slammed on depreciation/debasement temporarily to again protect the Wall Street Investment Banks from the derivative blow-back of troubled EU Banks.

Germany doesn't care - Merkel et al think they can handle whatever comes - as soon as they through France in among the PIIGS - even though their number two bank is staggering. They may let it fall. They will certainly not print.

They will clean house at some point - and Goldman's Cadets will be sent packing. BOA and a few other investment banks can only be saved by the American taxpayer. Like BOA, the derivatives risk has been transferred by Wall Street to their banking side and socialized - this would not have been possible had Bernanke, Geitner and friends not allowed them to convert from investment banks to reserve banks in the first place, so they could qualify for TARP and all the other goodies.

That middle-of-the-night decision should have been reversed long ago. The Fed is in the business of protecting the banking industry and never does anything to help anyone else - including the EU. They are printing to prop up EU Banks now to protect Wall Street. I can't imagine anyone with a brain rushing to the USD for safe haven - it's more likely a quid pro quo of some sort, from London or Fankfurt - you can't bailout anyone with completely worthless dollars afterall.

To de-value the buck in the first place, they had to set gold free, within limits....thus the long run up as the dollar ran down. Now the USD is artificially inflated and gold of course has fallen, but this last roll of the dice is a huge gamble. It shouldn't take long to play out...just as long as it takes to try to stamp out the fire in France and the PIIGS - set by Goldman.

What a quandry for "poor Ben". He wants world reserve status and the only way to compete in the race to the bottom in the "big four" currency war is to let it down and let gold ascend. This is what we have seen for a decade. Now the buck has to look like it's worth something (so gold descends). If he isn't successful in helping the EU Banks, really Wall Street, his balancing act could end with a BOOM! And off the high wire he goes in a shower of USD and OTC derivatives, junk bonds, Treasuries and other "creative" instruments.

He's on a razor's edge. He either puts the fuse out on the potential EU blowback (10 times global GDP, give or take), not to mention sovereign debt, or he has to abandon debasement and any hope of reviving trade (the economy)...he is hoping short-term.

Merkel et al are totally blaze...the core countries are sufficiently insulated to work through this long- term. If re-elected, she might even let the chips fall for banks at the core, and soldier on...it is not a short-term problem she has said, and easy money is no solution - they tried it, and she told them it didn't work.

The EU has been working on their own solutions and letting the "Anglo-Saxons", as she calls NY and London, twist in the wind. Once the fate of the USD, and possibly a new Nordic Euro, is decided, gold will again find it's place....and it's price.

There were no such problems under the old gold standard, which righted itself without intervention over time for a century or more. It is only since central banks first incorrectly pegged gold and then defaulted on a modified gold standard and moved to fiat, (Nixon defaulted) and went to printing currency out of thin air that all this nonsense has burned us again and again.

Open banking, FreeGold or the old gold standard, with gold revaluated, is the simple solution. But that is logical, and we are clearly creatures of emotion.
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What annoys me is that people stampede when there is no fire. The Fed has had a policy of debasing the USD through the "leadership" Greenspan and Bernanke (soulmates). They are easy money guys, afraid of deflation. The Fed's job had been to protect the d  Lire la suite
SirJames - 21/12/2011 à 00:33 GMT
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