Gold Medium Term – BULLISH since Mar 11 2016 @ 1259
Moving Averages 1198-1243 (Bullish)
As long as price is above 1196-1242 the medium term remains bullish. The dual yellow line just under the averages is true support and we would have to break below those trend lines in order to go back to a medium term bearish outlook on gold. On the upside, we need a monthly close above the upper yellow line of resistance at the 1372-1388 area. It has now been 6 weeks since the bull/bear battle of the line began. So for the bears have been able to hold it-- But for how long?
Taking the 2011 downtrend line out would be a statement.
The 2014 high is 1388 and there is resistance at -1422-1438 is we get above 1388. Clearing the 2011 yellow downtrend line would be huge and the rally has gone as far as it can without leaving the bear market channel. Now we find out who’s in charge still. Trend remains up BUT CAUTIOUS HERE. If there’s to be a medium term correction, this is where the bears must try to regain control and so far they have done so these past few weeks. If the bulls get above the 2011 downtrend line they will have control. The most non arbitrary indicator that exists is the 2011 DOWNTREND LINE. If gold is above all downtrend lines, then gold can’t be in a bear MARKET. Do you see the triple green uptrend line just above the 2011 downtrend line. That’s the momentum line from the 2005 breakout. Once gold is back above that line, it will be in high gear. In summary, until we get above the 2011 downtrend line, a summer pullback potential is in play. With that said, watch 1388. If we move above it, another good move up could develop to the triple green line. Until then, we should favor a medium term pullback as those are the odds.
ODDS FAVOR a 100 dollar move in GOLD is going to happen at some point in the next 30 days.
