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Mind the Theory

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Publié le 17 août 2012
1607 mots - Temps de lecture : 4 - 6 minutes
( 18 votes, 4,6/5 ) , 10 commentaires
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I.

The saying that things may work nicely in theory, but do not necessarily work in practice is well known.[1] It is typically meant to disparage the importance of theory, suggesting it would be too far removed from practical matters to help in solving the issue at hand.

The Prussian philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724–1804), in his 1793 essay "On the Popular Judgment: 'This May Be True in Theory, But It Does Not Apply in Practice,'" responded to such criticism; in fact, he responded with his essay to criticism leveled against his ethical theory by the philosopher Christian Garve (1742–1798).

Therein, Kant made the point that theory provides "principles of a fairly general nature," or general rules. However, theory does not tell man how to apply it, says Kant. For this, the act of judgment is required:

For a concept of the understanding, which contains the general rule, must be supplemented by an act of judgment whereby the practitioner distinguishes instances where the rule applies from those where it does not.[2]

The Prussian philosopher effectively called for respecting the role theory has for acting man:

No one can pretend to be practically versed in a branch of knowledge and yet treat theory with scorn, without exposing the fact that he is an ignoramus in his subject.[3]

In this methodological work Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) emphasized the importance of theory for acting man at the most fundamental level, noting that theory and human action are in fact inseparable. Mises writes,

Action is preceded by thinking. Thinking is to deliberate beforehand over future action and to reflect afterwards upon past action. Thinking and acting are inseparable. Every action is always based on a definite idea about causal relations. He who thinks a causal relation thinks a theorem. Action without thinking, practice without theory are unimaginable. The reasoning may be faulty and the theory incorrect; but thinking and theorizing are not lacking in any action. On the other hand thinking is always thinking of a potential action. Even he who thinks of a pure theory assumes that the theory is correct, i.e., that action complying with its content would result in an effect to be expected from its teachings. It is of no relevance for logic whether such action is feasible or not.

With theory being inseparable from human action, the crucial question is this: What is the correct theory? For obvious reason, acting man will be interested in correct theory: "No matter how one looks at it, there is no way in which a false theory can serve a man or a class or the whole of mankind better than a correct theory."[4]

II.

In today's mainstream economics the truth value of a theory is typically tested along the lines of an "if-then hypothesis." For instance, economists test whether a rise in the money supply leads to higher prices, or whether a rise in the money supply causes rising prices — or whether the reverse holds true.

Such a procedure is typical of positivism-empiricism-falsificationism — a methodological approach in economics that must not only be rejected as intellectual confusion;[5] it can also be criticized as being prone to demagogic abuse.

For if one holds the view that nothing can be known (for sure) without testing it (which, by the way, is a contradiction in itself, but this finding shall not be of no further concern here), one must try it to find out.

Once a theory sounds good, or benevolent, enough — such as the theory that a rise in the money supply brings prosperity for all, or the theory that government deficit spending creates new jobs — people will love to see it put into practice.

What is more, under the reign of positivism-empiricism-falsification there is even an economic incentive for spreading theories just for the sake of their political efficacy — even if these theories are false: those who provide credible scientific legitimization to actions pursued by government can typically expect high rewards.

To provide a metaphorical illustration, to make robbery socially accepted, the robber will be willing to share some of his loot with those helping to make his crime acceptable from the viewpoint of his victims.

When it comes to benevolent-sounding economic theories, consider the following examples:

·         The state is indispensable for peace and prosperity; without the state, social chaos, relentless aggression, and misery would result.[6]

·         Money production must be monopolized by the state, for there is no other way to obtain reliable money.

·         Commodity money (gold and silver) is better replaced by fiat money, as only fiat money allows for an adequate increase in the money supply — which, in turn, is necessary for output and employment growth.

·         Capitalism exploits the working class and leads to widespread poverty, war, and imperialism; socialism will maintain peace and raise the standards of living for all.

·         Democracy (majority voting) is the form of political organization respecting individual freedom and property rights, necessary for peaceful cooperation and prosperity.

These examples may suffice to make the point: once theories are considered to be benevolent theories, they can be expected to be put into action; the more benevolent the theory is, the more likely social experimentation gets under way.

However, engaging in social experimentation for alleged truth-finding purposes comes at a high price — at times at a prohibitively high price, as the experimentation with socialism in many countries has made all too clear.

III.

In the field of economics, however, it is possible to decide whether or not theories are correct without having to take recourse to experimenting and testing.

Mises reconstructed the science of economics as the logic of human action, which he termed praxeology. As a priori theory, praxeology allows deducing irrefutable — or apodictic — truths from the irrefutably true axiom of human action.

In Mises's words,

Praxeology is a theoretical and systematic, not a historical, science. Its scope is human action as such, irrespective of all environmental, accidental, and individual circumstances of the concrete acts. Its cognition is purely formal and general without reference to the material content and the particular features of the actual case. It aims at knowledge valid for all instances in which the conditions exactly correspond to those implied in its assumptions and inferences. Its statements and propositions are not derived from experience. They are, like those of logic and mathematics, a priori. They are not subject to verification or falsification on the ground of experience and facts.

Praxeology provides a methodology that allows separating correct economic theories from false economic theories on a priori grounds — that is, without having to engage in social experimentation.

In view of the illustrations given above (without developing the argument at length), we know for sure that the state is not the solution but the root cause of the most severe social conflicts.

From praxeology we also know with certainty that money is a free-market phenomenon; that commodity money, the logical choice of free market action, is sound money; and that the state monopolization of money production brings unsound money.

We also know for sure that an increase in the money supply doesn't make an economy richer; it merely benefits the early receivers of the new money (who are those issuing it) at the expense of those receiving the new money late or not at all.

It can also be deduced from praxeology that socialism leads to great misery, as it is a form of social organization that cannot work; it is bound to fail, and capitalism is the only economically viable form of societal organization.


Finally, it can be shown on the basis of praxeology that democracy is actually — and this may be surprising to the many — incompatible with preserving individual freedom and property rights and thus peaceful cooperation and prosperity.

The power of unmasking and demystifying false economic theories on a priori grounds, that is without having to engage in social experimentation, is certainly one of the most fascinating aspects of the Misesian-oriented Austrian School of economics.

In his introduction to Critique of Pure Reason (1787), Kant title chapter 3, "Philosophy stands in need of a Science which shall Determine the Possibility, Principles, and Extent of Human Knowledge 'a priori.'" For the science of economics, Mises has done just that.



Notes

[1] "The term theory is ordinarily understood to signify that the suggested explanation is held to have been satisfactorily proved, and to be no longer open to questions." Joyce, G. H. (1908), Principles of Logic, Longmans, Green & Co, London et al., p. 362.

[2] Kant, I. (1992 ), Über den Gemeinspruch: Das mag in der Theorie richtig sein, taugt aber nicht für die Praxis, Zum ewigen Frieden, H. F. Klemme, ed., Felix Meiner Verlag Hamburg, p. 3 [A 202], my translation.

[3] Ibid, p. 4 [276], own translation.

[4] Mises, L. v. (1957), Theory & History, p. 124.

[5] See in this context Hoppe, H. H. (2006), Austrian Rationalism in the Age of the Decline of Positivism, in: The Economics and Ethics of Private Property, Studies in Political Economy and Philosophy, 2nd ed., Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, US Alabama, pp. 347–379.

[6] Murray Rothbard defines the state is defined as

that institution which possesses one or both (almost always both) of the following properties: (1) it acquires its income by the physical coercion known as "taxation"; and (2) it asserts and usually obtains a coerced monopoly of the provision of defense service (police and courts) over a given territorial area.

Rothbard gives a positive definition of the state: Iit says what the state really is, not what it ought to be (normative definition).

 

 

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Kant is dead. Nietzsche too. Me almost...
Long live the ones that are still alive...
Long live Mises...
Kindly yours ,
"social experimentation" ?!
Can't believe it. Not with me !
"We also know for sure..." What then ?
Evaluer :   1  10Note :   -9
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Reflex action has nothing to do with thinking.
Non-action is action.
Thinking is action.
Evaluer :   12  2Note :   10
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What utter nonsense! Poleitt has absolutely no idea of just how confused his reasoning actually is. To even imagine that we can know with absolute certainty how humans will act in a given situation without so much as even seeing how they behaved in past circumstances that were the same as those in the current situation is preposterous on its face. With very few exceptions can we know in an a priori fashion anything. Such an example might be that we know that we are alive without having to put it to the test. But there is little else that can be known with such certainty and most assuredly not in the field of economics. Presented with the same set of facts, one person might buy shares in some company while another might sell. We might like to believe that if we are happy and well adjusted, we would do what we could to preserve our own life and yet there are those who will rush into a burning building to rescue a total stranger. We might believe that murder is wrong and yet there have been societies that believed in human sacrifice, head hunting and canibalism.
To categoricly state that in the field of economics we need not rely upon empirical evidence is so utterly absurd as to qualify Poleitt for a bed in a sanitorium. If these truths are so self-evident, then why on earth have we been floundering for so long? i mean, do you ask yourself every day whether or not you exist?
Let me also add that Poleitt is mistaken to place logic on the same pedestal as mathematics. Logic can and has led to some very wrong conclusions. As but one example, logic led man to believe for millenia that the sun orbited the earth.
Claiming that there is no need to test a theory is an appeal to live in ignorance.
Evaluer :   2  19Note :   -17
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Economics is an a priori science. I would suggest you read some basics of Austrian Economics before rereading this article.

For example : http://mises.org/esandtam/pes1.asp

Best regards
Evaluer :   13  1Note :   12
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i had read A. E. before and did read the piece you sent along. It has done nothing to change my mind whatsoever. That there is "almost a universal opposition to Austrianism" as stated in the article should tell you something. And what it should tell you is that a priori knowledge in the field of economics is utterly and completely impossible. Things that can be understood in such a fashion are few and far between and are never a matter for dispute. (A key point.) No one has doubts as to their own existence. A.E. is fine in other regards and i have no disagreements with it. But this nonsense that its precepts can be understood in an a priori fashion is doubtlessly a major reason why there is such opposition to it. This intransigent resistance by Austrians to such an obvious truth makes it seem more like a cult than anything else. Without experiment there is no science, for that is how theory is validated or disproved. Which leads to my next point. Economics is really a pseudo science in that with conditions always in flux, no test can ever be repeated. Conditions may be similar, but never the same. We can only make progress toward discovering what works best in this or any other field of study by studying what has gone before us, analyizing it and making changes to the theory as required; perhaps even abandoning it altogether in favor of another.
Think of it this way: a person who has spent their entire life living in a cave without any human contact would know with absolute certainty that he is alive. That is an example of a priori knowledge. That same person in the same situation would not be able to grasp the concept of a business cycle or deduce that gold works better than paper as a unit of account because he would have had no experience of such things.
Your statement that economics is an a priori science does not make it so. It is a dogmatic statement completely lacking in proof. Which of course it must be, for there is no gedanken experiment that can be undertaken by our cave dweller that would lead him to know with the same certainty he has that he is alive that there is a business cycle. Once you understand that, you can begin to use your own critical faculties to think for yourself; always employing your b.s. detector to steer clear of the pure, unadulterated nonsense that ideologues and messianic types try to bamboozle us with.
In the words of Jerry Rubin: Ideology is a brain disease.
Evaluer :   1  17Note :   -16
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Thanks for your answer. I maintain that Economics is an a priori science, but differs from physics, for example, in the fact that humans have freedom of choice, whereas observed objects in physics do not.

Thus the same causes have the same effets, but you cannot time the occurence, nor know exactly how it will happen.

A few examples : Print money and you get inflation, control prices and you get shortages if prices are set too loo and oversupply are set to high, set a minimum wage and you get unemployment, the closest to the money production system get richer at the expense of the others (Cantillon effect), print money and you get boom and bust cycles, and so on, all cause and effects which are perfectly demonstrated in today's economy.
Evaluer :   14  0Note :   14
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Let me begin by defining the term a priori: known to be true independently of or in advance of experience of the subject matter; requiring no evidence for its validation or support. That is to say that it is a non-analytic type of reasoning.

Now allow me to address your caveat that this supposed science can tell us what will happen, but not when it will or even how it will. i would then ask you of what use is it if it cannot answer at least one of those rather crucial questions in that it gives us nothing to go on in the here and now and it is precisely in the here and now in which we must act.

To illustrate my point, let me use your first example that printing money leads to inflation. On its face it does seem to be a very sensible deduction. Yet when we look at Japan what we find is that they have been printing for the last two decades and yet they are trapped in a deflationary spiral with their currency never having had such strong purchasing power as it does now. Just how much longer must we wait until inflation rears its ugly head in Japan? i guess i should not have asked that, for as you have stated, it is unknowable. We simply must trust that it will, be it tomorrow or 687 years from now. Sorry, but that knowledge is of absolutely no use to anyone in that one cannot take action on it and expect to profit. It is no different than were i to have told you in 1920 that the Boston Red Sox are going to win the World Series. Yes, they eventually did, but you would have lost a fortune betting on them every year.

Let me also point out that boom and bust cycles have occured under a gold standard. They are not unique to a fiat system. That means that there is some other mechanism at work that you cannot explain. And it should also be noted that unemployment exists in nations without minimum wage laws, meaning that those laws cannot be the causative factor. And by your logic, should not Bernanke be the richest man on earth, for who is closer to the money production system?

And so i will say to you that contrary to your claim that all of the causal relationships you claim to exist (and that can be deduced without ever having to leave the cave) do not exist when we examine them in the cold, hard light of objective experience. Indeed, the Japanese experience alone should lead you to conclude that there is something going on that Austrians do not understand. And if all that you can come back with is that one day the Japanese will suffer inflation, but you cannot tell me when, then what you are championing is a faith based system, not science.

What von Mises has lured you in with is common sense, not immutable laws of economics. And sad to say, but common sense is often wrong, regardless of how logical it might appear at the time. (The earth orbits the sun, not the other way around.) And again, if what he claimed to come to in an a priori manner is so obvious as to require no evidence for its validation, then it ought not to be any more contentious than you telling me that you are alive. His truths are not self-evident and just like any other theory, need to be demonstrated in the cold, hard light of reality. You can deny that all you want, but what you are then
left with is a belief system that provides you with no useful information for acting in the here and now. Worse, to maintain your belief intact, you will have to ignore certain inconvenient truths, such as the boom and bust cycles that occured in America while using the gold standard.











Evaluer :   1  16Note :   -15
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I enjoyed reading your comments, thanks. Maybe you won't get much appreciation here, as the (underlying) aim of trying to make the art of economy a science is the same as was for psychoanalysis : self (emotional) reassurance. At least, both Freud and Lacan, who spent there entire life trying to establish psychoanalysis in the field of science, did admit they failed "...even if we can't deny that something in psychoanalysis IS working" (that's Lacan's statement, as for Freud, no need here to enter into this).

If we where on a philosophy forum I would maybe enjoy chalange your statement about the evidence of our existence - you mean as independant, solid, lasting sentient beings ? But this is just about hoping our gold bullions will make better tomorow than today, isn't it ? So, thank you all you guys who try hard helping us see a bit clearer in this thick economic fog, and...
Au plaisir
Evaluer :   9  1Note :   8
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Thanks. On your points, one by one :

- Japan having no inflation. Prices in Japan should have plummeted, which was not possible because the debt structure would have crushed the banks. Prices being stable can very well be the consequence of very high inflation, when prices should have fallen,

- On boom and bust in the gold standard. Boom and bust come from fractional reserve banking, gold standard or not, as I mentionned in my comment.

The fact that you cannot profit from an a priori knowledge does not make it untrue. As I mention, human think, thus human action is very difficult to predict timingwise.

And please. You can very well profit from it. Many Austrian investors piled on Gold and silver early 2002, 2004 and keep on doing so. They have been handsomely rewarded by knowing a priori that printing money leads to booms and busts, to the destruction of the currency and to a return to sound money.

Sorry for you if you missed it, but it is not too late.


Evaluer :   5  0Note :   5
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While i appreciate your attempt to help clarify matters for me, i regret to inform you that the mark was missed. Not only did you miss dealing with perhaps the most salient objection that i raised (to say nothing of others) with those that you did attempt to explain, you only served to illustrate for me that you do not see the flaws in your own reasoning.

Let me remind you of what you did not answer. The very meaning of the term a priori indicates that the truth of the statement is so obviously true that no sane person would doubt it. It is something so easy to understand that it can be seen to be true without need to put it to the test. As a simple example, we know without going out to examine every triangle that we can find that they all have 3 sides. We know it to be true because that is our definition of the word. And so i will repeat for you that given that Austrianism is almost universally rejected (as was admitted in the article you had me read) by definition it cannot therefore be based on a priori knowledge. It is inescapable logic. If Austrianism is in fact so obviously true that only the real dullards would need to be told why that is so and once shown, even they would get it, why then the almost universal rejection? Indeed, the very notion that the vast majority of people would disagree with something that is the product of a priori knowledge is a complete contradiction in terms. It is akin to the claim that all blondes are bald when we know that baldness means to be without hair of any colour. When the vast majority of folks disagree with you on this matter--though not necessarily on this page-- all claim to a priori knowledge is forfeited if for no other reason than continuing to make use of the term changes its meaning from that which is self-evident to that which is so obscure that hardly anybody agrees.

Before going on, let me say that i find it sad that von Mises found it necessary to make this claim. He had some very keen insights into how economies work and there is a good deal of insight to be gained in its study. But i fear that his bombastic claim has turned off many that might otherwise have profited from the exposure. And that is sad.

The first of my points that you attempted to address, if i understood you well, actually struck me as advertisements for central banking and quantatative easing to infinity. i understood you to mean that prices should have plummeted some 20 years ago. i took you to have meant that it was not seen as being a permissable outcome as opposed to one that would be impossible; for as all agree, in free markets there are not only those who never lose, there is also a weekly list of failed U.S. banks. And so the Japanese embarked upon their quest to print their way out of the certain misery they would have otherwise faced. Your explanation of this phenomenon of stable prices over a 20 year period of monetary inflation by the logic that prices would have been lower if not for all the central bank interference is both spot on and just the advertisement Bernanke can use when he rolls out the next round of QE to infinity and beyond. He can tell his detractors how the average Japanese person has been able to live in a world of relative price stability for the past 2 decades and with the yen having appreciated some 62% against the dollar during that time, Japanese citizens now enjoy cheaper imports and they can travel abroad more frequently. He could then ask his American audience if they think they have done as well as the Japanese have over the past 2 decades. It would be strictly for rhetorical purposes of course and that would become obvious with his next words. And those would be his explanation for this national disgrace: the Japanese have had a 16 year advantage over us and so that is why we must double our efforts. "It worked for the Japanese" will become the mantra and some clever chap will put those iconic words on tee shirts, mugs, fridge magnets, baseball caps and billboards.

Sorry about that. i got a bit carried away there, though i do trust that you understood the underlying point i was making. By your own admission, central banking, using one of the most odious tools at its disposal, has shown itself capable of averting imminent disaster in the economy. Now i hear you without your need to say that a central bank may be able to postpone the inevitable, but its arrival has already been determined by actions already taken. Not only do i hear you, but i see that 2 paragraphs down in you latest response, you have provided me with my answer to your yes but. "...human action is very difficult to predict timingwise." How very true that be. As you claimed in a previous post, humans have free will. And so we are forced to use statistical analysis when making predictions and so no certain outcome is assured for an individual event. Be that as it may, the real problem with that whole line of reasoning is that economics is a profoundly human activity that affects the life of everyone not emulating Diogenes, who went off to live in a barrel as a hermit. As such it ought to tell us with as much detail as possible what is coming down the pipe. A thing that claims to know with certainty that this or that is going to happen, yet cannot say with specificity when it will happen because other things keep getting in the way and it really is not known what other future events might also forestall the inevitable, what we are left with is something other than science with its immutable laws. Saying B will follow A without beginning to even place the event temporally is very much like the claim that Jesus will return to do whatever it is he is supposed to do, only unlike the Mayans, who at least had the decency to provide us with a date to determine the validity of their claim, Christians were given no such time frame. Will Jesus return? Will Japan go through a catastrophic hyperinflationary period? Could be. But at what point does the absence of proof start to become a problem?

Let me put it to you this way: Euclid never had to tell anyone that if they would just be more patient, the triangle they were observing would eventually have internal angles that totalled 180 degrees; explaining that the triangle had been unduly influenced by some outside force. That which cannot be demonstrated is at very best theory, at worst, utter malarky. Just having to wait until something happens can be utterly disasterous when it comes to our economic well being when we are trapped in the here and now, having to act. Being unable to say when a thing will happen leaves us without any inkling as to how we should time our own decisions. Coming up with a system that cannot be disproved because the system states that an absence of proof for it is not proof that it is wrong and there is no example where it can be shown to be wrong if for no other reason than insufficient time has passed to demonstrate its universal truth; well, that is sheer genius. But it sure is not science!

You then went on to rebuke me for having not properly attributed booms and busts as phenomena of fractional reserve banking. Were there not booms and busts in ancient Rome, centuries before fractional reserve banking? Methinks there were.

In your next paragraph you claim that just because you cannot profit from a priori reasoning does not make it false. That may be so, but you would expect that in a field such as economics, that ought to be at least part of the objective.

As for your penultimate paragraph, many non-Austrians also bought precious metals and have continued to do so on the dips. What gives the best guidance is understanding capital flows. When that is observed, you have a pretty good chance of being on the right side of where the market is going, being able to adjust your position in real time as the money gets moved around.

If responding, kindly address the definition paradox or do not bother.










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Thanks. On your points, one by one : - Japan having no inflation. Prices in Japan should have plummeted, which was not possible because the debt structure would have crushed the banks. Prices being stable can very well be the consequence of very hig  Lire la suite
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