Articles related to Theory
 
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers
Arbitrary Interest Rates In the past few weeks, we have argued that interest rates will not rise. We have made our arguments based on observable cases of soft credit demand that falls with rising rates, and analysis of the incentives on creditors and debtors. Ours is a case that rates can’t go up much, for long, because demand for credit won’t chase rates up. In the postwar period up to 1981, borrowers chased rates all the way up the moon. But not since then. Now, we want to make a theoretical a
Monday, February 19, 2018
Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco.
The origin of cycles
It was Karl Marx who was among the first believers that cyclical behaviour was endemic to free markets.He lived through a time when there was a regular cycle of boom and bust, with phases of economic expansion followed by contraction. Workers were employed and then unemployed, and the only way this could be stopped, in Marxian economics, was for the workers to acquire the means of production, or more correctly, the state to do so on their behalf.Other economists, such as Jevons and Wicksell, rec
Friday, February 16, 2018
Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
“Rules-Based” Monetary Proposals Won’t Create S...
(This item originally appeared at Forbes.com on February 9, 2018.) https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2018/02/09/rules-based-monetary-proposals-wont-create-stable-money/#4b822c96128e I often say that governments should follow the “Magic Formula,” which is: Low Taxes and Stable Money. Good things happen to governments that do this, and bad things happen to those that don’t. “Stable Money” means: money that is stable in value. The traditional way to accomplish this is to link currencies to g
Monday, February 12, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Take It To The Bank: Interest Rates Won’t Rise
How Not to Predict Interest Rates We continue our hiatus from capital destruction to look further at interest rates. Last week, our Report was almost prescient. We said: The first thing we must say about this is that people should pick one: (A) rising stock market or (B) rising interest rates. They both cannot be true (though we could have falling rates and falling stocks). We write these Reports over the weekend. At the time of last week’s writing session, Friday’s close on the S&P was 2757 (fu
Monday, February 12, 2018
Gary Tanashian - Biwii
US Stock Market, Precious Metals and the Macro Backdrop
US Stock MarketWe will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (f
Sunday, February 11, 2018
Stewart Thomson - Graceland Update
Gold: The Ultimate Iron Lady
The appointment of Jerome Powell as new Fed chair is likely the catalyst that ushers in a multi-decade era of rising inflation and soaring gold stocks. I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation numbers that I am projecting for America in the years ahead. Having said that, Powell has only been on the job for one day. Investors need to show patience. Wait to see what he actually does before taking “back up the truck” market acti
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Frank Shostak
Why Good Economics Requires Good Theory
It is generally held that by means of statistical and mathematical methods one can organize historical data into a useful body of information, which in turn can serve as the basis for the assessments of the state of the economy. It is also held that the knowledge secured from the assessment of the data is likely to be of a tentative nature since it is not possible to know the true nature of the facts of reality.Some economists such as Milton Friedman held that since it is not possible to establi
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors
Climate Stats 
Solar Minimum Continues January's Sunspot count came in at 6.7, which was down from December's 8.2. The following chart includes the latest post and covers Solar Cycle 24. The high was 145 in February 2014, which compares to the high of 238 in September 2003. With the decline in solar activity, the number of Spotless days continues to grow. It's the way it works. So far, this year there has been 17 days, or 52% for the year. In all of 2017, the number was 104 days or 28% and the year before it w
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital
Raising Rates Reflect Bigger Debt Not Faster Growth
While investors are justifiably focused on what may be the opening crescendo of a long overdue sell-off in stocks, there is not, as of yet, as feverish a discussion of the parallel sell-offs in bonds and the U.S. dollar, which have been underway for at least a year and a half in bonds and 14 months for the dollar. I contend that this should be widely understood as the root causes of the jittery Dow, and are ultimately far more important. A continued decline in the dollar and bonds holds the pote
Monday, February 5, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
The Fed’s Passive Aggressive Play
Singing the song of rising rates Last week, we took a break from the theme of the consumption of capital, for our annual Outlook 2018 report. We are going to leave the topic for one more week, while we address a market move which is on everyone’s mind. Are interest rates now in a rising cycle? The Fed has been singing the song of rising rates since Yellen hinted at it in September 2014. The Fed’s first hike was December 2015. Here is a graph showing the Fed Funds Rate, which the Fed controls, wi
Monday, February 5, 2018
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
David Cay Johnston: The Dirty Secrets of the Corporatocracy -
"This disposition to admire, and almost to worship, the rich and the powerful, and to despise, or, at least, to neglect persons of poor and mean condition, though necessary both to establish and to maintain the distinction of ranks and the order of society, is, at the same time, the great and most universal cause of the corruption of our moral sentiments." Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, 1759
Friday, February 2, 2018
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
U.S. Treasury Steve Mnuchin Advocates Weak Dollar Policy
Last week U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin actually admitted what most precious metals holders have known for a long time. In particular, he actually stated that at least in the short-term, he feels a weaker dollar is good for the U.S. Apparently the days of at least pretending to adhere to a strong dollar policy are over. Of course those who have been watching the Federal Reserve and all of its credit creation over the past few years have been well aware. Yet to hear the treasury secretary
Thursday, February 1, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Monetary Metals Brief 2018
Predicting the likely path of the prices of the metals in the near term is easy. Just look at the fundamentals. We have invested many man-years in developing the theory, model, and software to calculate it. Every week we publish charts and our calculated fundamental prices. However, predicting the outlook for a longer period of time is much harder. The fundamental shows the relative pressures in the spot and futures markets, but they only show a snapshot. They do not predict how those pressures
Monday, January 29, 2018
Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie
Greatest Stock Bubble In History GoldNomics Podcast Transcript
Dave: Welcome to episode two of the Goldnomics podcast where we look at the developments in financial markets through the lens of precious metals. Before we start today, I just want to remind all our listeners to subscribe to the Goldnomics podcast on iTunes YouTube or SoundCloud. And you can also stay up to date with all of the developments in precious metals markets by subscribing for our market updates at www.goldcore.com. And you can find a link in the show notes accompanying this podcast.
Sunday, January 28, 2018
Hugo Salinas Price - Plata.com
  Some Reflexions on History and Economics 
Nicolas Oresme, a Catholic bishop (1320-1382), studied human behavior with regard to money, which in his time consisted of gold and silver coinage; he was perhaps the first to observe that humans attribute varying valuations to the money that comes into their hands. He stated that holders of gold and silver coins prefer to tender their most deteriorated coins in payments, and retain the most bright, shiny and perfect of their coins. Thus, he was the true originator of what has come to be known a
Thursday, January 25, 2018
BullionStar - Bullion Star
Bitcoin backwardation, gold contango
People often refer to bitcoin as digital gold because of the similarities between the two assets. One big difference between gold and bitcoin is currently playing out in their respective futures markets. Since bitcoin futures were introduced last December by the CBOE, futures prices have often been inverted, or in backwardation. This sort of phenomenon rarely happens in gold markets, which trade normally, or in contango. Let's explore why inversion seems to be relatively common with bitcoin and
Thursday, January 25, 2018
Chris Martenson
Believing The Impossible 
"Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." ~ Lewis Carroll, Through The Looking Glass To borrow from Lewis Carroll: To have confidence in today's central bank-created bubble markets, we have to believe in six impossible things. Thing 1: Fundamentals D
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Is The Federal Reserve Really Thinking About Negative Interest Rates!
At the same time the Federal Reserve claims it’s going to raise interest rates and normalize its balance sheet, it’s also publishing an essay advocating negative interest rates. It’s almost so incredible that were it not published on the Fed’s own St. Louis branch website, it might be hard to believe it’s true. But apparently St. Louis Federal Reserve economist Yi Wen disagrees with the projected Fed mantra that it’s time to raise interest rates. Because he actually just wrote an essay explainin
Monday, January 22, 2018
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Shut Down Shoddy Debt
We have been discussing the consumption of capital. We again must say: “We see people eating more of the seed corn.” Right now as we write this on Saturday afternoon, the US government has “shut down”, due to a political impasse on the legislation to fund its continuing operations. Government funding is a mix of taxing and borrowing. Government borrowing provides a segue into another mechanism of capital consumption. Legitimate credit requires that the lender both know and approve. Do holders of
Monday, January 22, 2018
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
The Verge of "Overheating" Labor Market in Pictures
Economist Mark Zandi fears the tight jobs market may "overheat". In the Beige Book, the word "tight" came up 31 times. Ahead of the last jobs report, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, offered this amusing comment as noted by ADP: “The job market ended the year strongly. Robust Christmas sales prompted retailers and delivery services to add to their payrolls. The tight labor market will get even tighter, raising the specter that it will overheat.” For further discussion, please
Monday, January 22, 2018
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