Articles related to Theory
 
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Falling Productivity of Debt
Last week, we discussed the ongoing fall of dividend, and especially earnings, yields. This Report is not a stock letter, and we make no stock market predictions. We talk about this phenomenon to make a different point. The discount rate has fallen to a very low level indeed. Discount in stocks is how you assess the present-day value of earnings to occur in the future. For example, if the discount rate is 10%, then a dollar of earnings per share at Acme Piping next year is worth $0.90 today. At
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Two Stars Crashed Into Each Other Flinging Out Gold, And Wobbling The Universe
The amazing new discovery of two crashing stars is a giant leap forward for astrophysics. This celestial event has been described by many as one of the most exciting things to happen in space. According to The Independent, the super-dense neuron stars crashed together 130 million light-years away, spewing out precious metals and other heavy elements like platinum and uranium. Neutron stars, the collapsed remnants of massive stars that have died in supernova explosions, are some of the most exoti
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
Frank Shostak
  The Fed Is Confused about What Drives Inflation
On October 4 2017, the former governor of the Federal Reserve Daniel Tarullo in a speech at the Brookings think-tank in Washington said Fed policy makers do not have a reliable theory of what drives inflation. According to Tarullo, central bankers should pay less attention to theoretical models and more to actual data. However, how is it possible to make any sense of the data without having a reliable theory?The Importance of TheoryOne purpose of a theory is to enable one to ascertain the defini
Monday, October 16, 2017
Koos Jansen - Bullion Star
  The Gold-Backed-Oil-Yuan Futures Contract Myth
On September 1, 2017, the Nikkei Asian Review published an article titled, “China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold”, written by Damon Evans. Just below the headline in the introduction it states, “China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry”. Not long after the Nikkei piece was released ‘the story’ was widely copied in sensational analyses throughout t
Monday, October 16, 2017
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Zimbabwe Inflates, Again…
In November 2008, Zimbabwe experienced the second highest recorded inflation rate in history, and with that, it entered the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table. That’s when the annual inflation rate reached a peak of 89.7 sextillion (10^21) percent (see table below). At this point, prices were doubling every 24.7 hours. During Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode (2007-2008), the Reserve Bank of Zim
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Updating gold’s true fundamentals
Last week I posted a short piece titled “A silver price-suppression theory gets debunked“, the main purpose of which was to direct readers to a Keith Weiner article disproving that the silver price had been dominated by the “naked” short-selling of futures. My brief post rattled the cage of GATA’s Chris Powell, who made an attempt at a rebuttal early this week and in doing so proved that 1) he doesn’t understand what arbitrage is and how it affects prices, and 2) he doesn’t understand what funda
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Jan Skoyles - GoldCore
London House Prices Are Falling – Time to Buckle Up
– London house prices fall in September: first time in eight years – High-end London property fell by 3.2% in year – House sales down by over a very large one-third – Global Real Estate Bubble Index – see table – Brexit, rising inflation and political uncertainty causing many buyers to back away from market – U.K. housing stock worth record £6.8 trillion, almost 1.5 times value of LSE and more than the value of all the gold in world – Homeowners and property investors should diversify and invest
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Stocks Up and Yields Down, Gold and Silver Report 8 Oct 2017
Many gold bugs make an implicit assumption. Gold is good, therefore it will go up. This is tempting but wrong (ignoring that gold does not go anywhere, it’s the dollar that goes down). One error is in thinking that now you have discovered a truth, everyone else will see it quickly. And there is a subtler error. The error is to think good things must go up. Sometimes they do, but why? First, we think it’s a cop-out to say, “well it’s all subjective.” If it were all subjective, then there would be
Monday, October 9, 2017
Chris Powell - GATA
The questions that deniers of monetary metals market rigging won't answer
Newsletter writer Steve Saville of The Speculative Investor, who long has denied that manipulation of the monetary metals markets means much, has seized on the recent essay by Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals as the conclusive refutation of silver market analyst Ted Butler's longstanding complaint that JPMorganChase has been rigging the silver market. Weiner's analysis, headlined "Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler" and posted here -- https://monetary-metals.com/thoughtful-disagreement-with-
Monday, October 9, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Scientists Claim to Have Proof that Time Travel Exists
Not much is happening economically speaking this Sunday evening so let’s ponder the ability to travel back in time such that the future can change the past. Please consider Physicists send particles of light into the past, prove time travel is possible. Scientists from the University of Queensland, Australia, have used single particles of light (photons) to simulate quantum particles traveling through time. They showed that one photon can pass through a wormhole and then interact with its olde
Monday, October 9, 2017
Chris Martenson
  Betrayal!
Let me apologize in advance for what may be an upsetting piece of writing for some of you. If you're in a state of shock or exhaustion from recent events, perhaps you should skip this one. I don't offer this analysis in order to further distress anyone -- but until you understand what is happening and how that influences your psychological state, you'll remain the emotional equivalent of a rag doll shaken to-and-fro by events. Such understanding may not bring you to a place of calm acceptance. B
Monday, October 9, 2017
Jan Skoyles - GoldCore
Survey shows UK and US Pensions Crisis is Imminent
Both UK and US drop in Global Retirement Security Rankings US falls due to sharp income inequality and reduced workforce to support retirees UK is two spots away from being in the bottom 10 for government indebtedness FCA’s Andrew Bailey says “clear risk” that savings rate for retirement is too low UK’s retirement savings gap set to widen to £2.3trn due to automation of jobs UK expected to fall into major pensions crisis by 2028 The economics of retirement funding is at breaking point. Thanks
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco.
The upcoming increase in interest rates
Last week, both Janet Yellen of the Fed and Mark Carney of the Bank of England prepared financial markets for interest rate increases. The working assumption should be that this was coordinated, and that both the ECB and the Bank of Japan must be considering similar moves.Central banks coordinate their monetary policies as much as possible, which is why we can take the view we are about to embark on a new policy phase of higher interest rates. The intention of this new phase must be to normalise
Friday, October 6, 2017
Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
  A silver price-suppression theory gets debunked 
Embracing the belief that a bank or a cartel of banks has suppressed the prices of gold and silver for decades via the short-selling of futures contracts is like adopting a child. It’s a lifetime commitment through thick and thin, meaning that once this belief takes hold there is no amount of evidence or logic that can dislodge it. Entering a debate with someone who is incapable of being swayed by evidence that invalidates their position is a waste of time and energy, so these days I devote no T
Friday, October 6, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Albert Edwards “Fed is a Slave to the SP 500”: Would Kevin Warsh Change That?
Society General’s Albert Edwards was at the Bank Credit Analyst annual conference in New York last week. Also in attendance were Larry Summers, Paul Volcker, and potentially the next Fed Chair, ex Fed-Governor Kevin Warsh. Edwards’ email comments on Warsh and Summers ring a bell with me. I was the first speaker and afterward I enjoyed listening to every other speaker at the two-day event. Most notable of the outside economics speakers were Paul Volker, Larry Summers, and most significantly fo
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals
Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler 
Dear Mr Butler: In your article of 2 October, entitled Thoughtful Disagreement, you say, “someone will come up with the thoughtful disagreement that makes the body of my premise invalid or the price of silver will validate the premise by exploding.” I will take you up on your request. You state your case in this paragraph: “Here are the issues. Silver (and gold) prices are set by paper dealings on the COMEX by a few large speculators (banks and managed money traders), to the exclusion of input f
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Chris Ciovacco - Ciovacco Capital Management
Has This Important 2016 Stock Signal Flipped?
Signal Said Be Open To Bullish Outcomes Posts dated September 6 and November 30 of 2016 outlined a rare bullish signal that was flashing based on movement in S&P 500’s monthly Bollinger Bandwidth. From the September 2016 analysis: “When Bollinger Bandwidth readings hit extremely low levels, it tells us to be open to a big move. The S&P 500’s daily Bollinger Bandwidth has never been lower than it is today, using data back to 1982, which means a big move could be coming soon in stocks.” From th
Monday, October 2, 2017
Chris Powell - GATA
Another gold-rich but mismanaged country sinks into hyperinflation again
By Agence France-Press via ENews Channel Africa, Johannesburg Sunday, October 1, 2017 HARARE, Zimbabwe -- Driving to work last week, Dennis Zhemi found his usually busy neighborhood garage in the Zimbabwean capital Harare deserted and a forecourt attendant signalling "no fuel." For Zhemi, it was a worrying sign that Zimbabwe's chronic economic collapse could be heading for another vicious downward spiral of basic shortages, hyperinflation, and social chaos. Zhemi's heart sank as he drove on, h
Monday, October 2, 2017
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Bitcoin vs Dollars: Which One is a Fraud? Which One is a Ponzi Scheme?
Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO, made quite a headline splash last week when he proclaimed “Bitcoin ‘is a Fraud“. Is Bitcoin a fraud? Or are dollars, euros, yen, and yuan a collective set of frauds? Which, if any are Ponzi schemes? Modern Finance is the Fraud In an article that I wish I had written myself, Viktor Shvets, head of Macquarie’s AsiaPac equity strategy, accurately explains “Modern Finance”, Not Bitcoin, Is The Real Fraud. Paragraphs rearranged for clarity. “Bitcoin is a sort of tulip… i
Friday, September 29, 2017
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
The ONLY Variable That Matters To The Price Of Gold
The ONLY Variable That Matters To The Price Of Gold Written by Jeff Nielson, Sprott Money News There are all sorts of positive fundamentals when it comes to the price of gold. There are the positive supply/demand fundamentals. The gold market is in a supply deficit. Mine reserves are at a 30-year low. The price of gold is below what is necessary to sustain the gold mining industry. There are the positive geopolitical fundamentals. The world’s two most-unstable leaders – Kim Jong-un and Donald
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
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