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In the last 4 hours
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
The History of Money
After stumbling upon this item at the Telegraph with an infographic on the history of money, I went searching for the source, only to find that there are tons of infographics on the subject as shown below: You’d think the central bank powers that be would have some appreciation for this subject and, more importantly, a recognition of how far we have strayed from whatever might have been considered “normal” for the last few thousand years, but they probably don’t. /* Tuesday, October 21, 2014
In the last 24 hours
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008
In yet another potential market topping sign, M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008 The value of deals that fail to complete has reached its highest level since 2008, in the latest sign that the best year for mergers and acquisitions since the financial crisis will also feature a number of high-profile failures. Three large deals collapsed last week, adding to the list of wrecked deals and coinciding with a sharp jump in equity market volatility that sapped confidence in stocks and put a
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
A New Hope
Long-time readers know I am the ultimate Star Wars fan.  In my view, George Lucas is the Albert Einstein of movie-making; and joining with Disney has only made the franchise stronger.  One of my favorite Star Wars creations is the recently completed, seven-season animated serial “Star Wars-Clone Wars” – of which, I woke up Sunday morning at 3:00 AM to watch the final seven episodes. Star Wars’ creators clearly have very strong political views – in my view, quite similar to the majority of Miles
Monday, October 20, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Eurozone Rotting to the Core; Four Possibilities; Beyond the Math
On October 6, I noted German Factory Orders Slump 5.7%, Most Since January 2009. The previous month was up 4.9%, so I averaged the two months noting "The average result is a decline of 0.4% per month, for the last two months. That process also means four consecutive months of decline." German numbers were particularly volatile allegedly due to timing of school holidays, but there is no way to smooth out four consecutive months of decline as anything other than overall weakness. Germany Slash
Monday, October 20, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Hopeful at Barron’s
There’s a clear sense of “let’s just get this correction over with” at Barron’s over the weekend in Big Money Poll: The Bull Will Be Right Back ($) where the graphic below appeared. We’ll see if Mr. Market cooperates. So far this morning, Mr. Market seems grumpy. /* Monday, October 20, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Monday Morning Links
MUST READS Dow futures fall sharply after IBM miss – USA Today Asia shares surge after Wall Street rally – Channel News Asia Four Lessons of a Wild Market Week – Bloomberg European Central Bank starts stimulus purchases – AP Russian rouble weakens on debt downgrade – BBC Russian Finance Minister: Oil prices won’t recover – RT News Who’s Afraid of the Russians Cutting Natural Gas Supplies? – Bloomberg BIS chief economist warns of dangers of easy money – Channel News Asia On the Tendency of Large
Monday, October 20, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit"
The ECB has been concerned about falling consumer prices. I propose that's 100% stupid, yet that's the concern. When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged gain of a falling euro. With that backdrop, credit the Financial Times for the absurd headline of the week: Eurozone Fails to Benefit from Weak Currency as Oil Price Slides. Pity the policy makers given the job of rescuing
Monday, October 20, 2014
More than 24 hours ago
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Nonperforming Spanish Loans Near All-Time High as Overall Credit Shrinks
Huky Guru posted a couple of interesting charts on his blog today about shrinking credit but rising percentage of nonperforming Spanish bank loans: NPLs of banks rebounded to 16.59%. Seven points higher than in the 1994 crisis. Spanish Bank Shrinking Credit Nonperforming Loans The "real" numbers are normalized to account for a change in methodology.  Today's number is just off the all-Time high of 16.73 percent in January of 2014. The "official" high was 13.62% in December of 2013. Both
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  FBI Director Warns Google and Apple "If You Don't Decrypt Phones, We'll Do It For You" 
The Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution is crystal clear in meaning. The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized. FBI Director, James Comey, an Obama appointment, does not give a damn what the Constitution
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Free Market Response to Ebola
In response to Obama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering one person responded that I was "over-cooking the Ebola crisis". Amusingly, another reader accused me of "underplaying the crisis". A third reader asked "what is the free market response?" A similar question arose in a comment to Acting Man's post The Ebola Outbreak – A Black Swan. Before tackling the free market issue, let's first review the government's response to date. Airport restrictions but only at
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Irony of the Day: Yellen Moans About Income Inequality; Seven Things That Cause Inequality
Those seeking the irony of the day will find it comes straight from the mouth of the Fed Chair. Please consider Janet Yellen Bemoans Rising US Inequality. Janet Yellen decried rising inequality on Friday in an unusual speech that may lead to accusations of politicising the US Federal Reserve. Speaking at a conference in Boston, the Fed chairwoman said she was “greatly concerned” by rising income and wealth inequality, and asked whether it is compatible with American values. Her remarks will
Friday, October 17, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Manipulation, Jawboning and Prayer
All I can say is this.  Yesterday afternoon’s “Miles Franklin All-Star Silver Panel Webinar” was an unmitigated success.  Direct questions regarding silver supply, demand, mining costs, inventories, and trading with David Morgan, Harvey Organ, Steve St. Angelo, and Bill Holter enabled listeners to derive a significantly better understanding of how tight the market is – and will likely be – in the coming years.  Thus, we courage that you will listen to it on the Miles Franklin Blog – and send it
Friday, October 17, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Friday Morning Links
MUST READS Wall St. Might Know Something We Don’t – NY Times Greek drama: Bond yields near 9% threshold – CNBC Bullard Challenges Fed to Respond to Weakening Inflation – Businessweek ECB to start asset purchases within days: Coeure – MarketWatch BOE chief economist says rates to stay low until after mid-2015 – Fox Business BOJ bill-buy offer fails to attract sellers, shows limits of easing strategy – Reuters Four Reasons the Bernanke-Yellen Asset-Price Inflation May Be Nearing Its End – Mises 3
Friday, October 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Greece 10-Year Bond Yield Soars to 9% as Prime Minister's Gambit Explodes; Snap Elections Likely, an
In the last three days, yield on the Greek 10-year government bond soared from 6.6% to over 9% before settling at 8.917%. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' Gambit Explodes Greek bonds yields had already been climbing with the rise of the radical left Syriza party in recent polls. Icing on the yield-cake was a seriously misguided election ploy by prime minister, Antonis Samaras that blew up in his face. Greece’s beleaguered prime minister, Antonis Samaras, used a bold gambit last week to wi
Friday, October 17, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Coming Apart At the Seams 
Watching America’s “manipulation organizations” desperately attempt to repeal the rapidly approaching “reality tsunami,” all we can think of – with tremendous fear and consternation – is what the “other side” will look like.  With global economic activity and financial conditions far worse than the 2008 bottom – even before “the big one” commenced – we can only pray the “worst-case scenario” doesn’t occur, which even the status quo embracing MSM realizes is possible. Of course, this time around
Friday, October 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
WalMart Margins Set to Plunge? Will Rest of Retail Follow? What About Jobs?
Retail sales reports on Wednesday have me thinking about the strength of the economy, commercial construction, jobs, and profit margins. Let's start with a look at retail sales. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Retail Sales Falter Amid Signs of Global Slowdown. Similarly, Bloomberg reports Weaker Retail Sales Signal Smaller Spending Boost. Retail sales dropped more than forecast in September on a broad pullback in spending that indicates American consumers provided less of a boost for
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Food Stamps and Unemployment
More evidence that the current economic “recovery” is unlike any other comes via Robert Doar in this item at Real Clear Markets where food stamp SNAP (Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) usage has failed to take its usual course following the end of a recession by moving lower along with the unemployment rate. Of course, new claims for unemployment insurance reached a 14-year low earlier today, so, the recent trend shown above shows no sign of reversing. Why is this happening? The answ
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Thursday Morning Links
MUST READS Share prices continue to slide – BBC Fear Goes Viral on Wall Street – Fiscal Times Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears – WSJ What the heck should the Fed do now? – CNN/Money Falling oil prices shake up global economies – AP World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE – Telegraph Treasuries Gain as Oil Drops Below $80 While Stocks Slide – Bloomberg The Depressing Signals Markets Are Sending About the Global Economy – NY Times This is who’s getting really walloped by the stock sl
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Worldwide Fiat Implosion: How High Can Silver Go?
Andy Hoffman spoke with SGT Report to discuss bond yields around the world have now hit an average an all-time low, global interest rates plunging, oil prices, Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold and silver.  To listen to the interview, please click below. Video: Worldwide Fiat Implosion: How High Can Silver Go?
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Pain Trade, Treasury Bears, Margin Calls
I have been warning US treasury bears for quite some time, but I now wonder if we have seen a bit of short-term capitulation. Before discussing further, let's first look at a Mish Mailbag. Reader Rob writes ... Hi Mish I was thinking that margin calls would be made after today and could pull the market down further by Friday. Do you think margin calls would be made to any degree yet? Also your article Stock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat? would be a gre
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Obama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering; Where's the Common Sense?
Ebola Fearmongering I seldom watch TV. But today I am on the road and watched CNN from a restaurant. I did not have sound, but I did see captions. CNN's headline story was ridiculous. CNN placed the blame for the intraday DOW plunge of 460 point on ebola. There was no mention of the 21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index. Nor was there any mention of weak consumer spending. What about PEs in the stratosphere? No mention of course. (For discussion, please see Stock Buybacks Pea
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
My Most Important Audioblog Yet
On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses the U.S. dollar, oil prices, gold and silver, U.S interest rates, record Silver Eagle sales and retail sales.   To listen to the audio, please click below. Download the audio file: My Most Important Audioblog Yet Video: My Most Important Audioblog Yet
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Trend Analyst on Stocks: “If The Dow Drops Below 15,000… I Would Suggest People Start Buying Food &
Stock markets across the world are starting to crack. Last night Europe was heavily in the red with drops in excess of 3% in some market exchanges. And, as soon as the bell rang this morning on the East Coast, U.S. stocks continued the global decline. Though the Federal Reserve released a report today indicating that the U.S. economy was on pace to grow moderately, investors were having none of it. After topping 17,000 for all time highs just a few weeks ago, stocks have tumbled over 1,000 point
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Crashing Oil Prices Portends Unspeakable Horrors
OK, so how about that for a headline?  And no, we’re not exaggerating as the charge toward global depression, war and hyperinflation is exploding out of control, like terrified wildebeest pursued by a den of lions.  We wrote last week that the only difference between 2008 and today – aside from tens of trillions of debt and historic geopolitical tensions – was the PPT’s ability to manipulate equity markets higher.  However, “Economic Mother Nature” is decidedly asserting herself; and consequentl
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index, New Orders Contract; Future Expectations Remain
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (a diffusion index) hit a multiyear high last month, then promptly crashed this month. Diffusion Index Problems The first problem with diffusion indices is they do not distinguish between big companies and small companies. The second problem is they record expansion or contraction in companies surveyed, but all expansions (and all contractions) are treated equally. Barely growing and wild growth are treated alike. Nonetheless, let's take a peek inside t
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Big Misses for Retail Sales, NY Manufacturing
The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales unexpectedly fell last month, down 0.3 percent in September after an increase of 0.6 percent in August. The declines were broad-based and this is a possible indication of slowing growth in the U.S. economy. Excluding autos, September sales fell 0.2 percent after a gain of 0.3 percent and, excluding both autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.1 percent following a jump of 0.5 percent in August. The consensus estimate for the latter, so-called “co
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Wednesday Morning Links
MUST READS Second Texas Health Worker Tests Positive for Ebola – NY Times Oil Prices Tumble, Posting Biggest One-Day Drop in Two Years – WSJ Worrying for Saudi, U.S. oil output cuts could take a while – Reuters Crashing oil prices could crush Vladimir Putin – CNN/Money IEA 2014 oil-demand forecast at weakest since 2009 – MarketWatch Toxic Mix for Fracking: Oil Price Collapse & Junk Bond Insanity – Wolf Street If Oil Plunge Continues, “Now May Be A Time To Panic” For Shale Companies – Zero Hedge
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Radio Appearance with John Stadtmiller – October 14, 2014
Andy Hoffman joins John Stadtmiller of the Republic Broadcasting Network to discuss the gold and silver markets, U.S. unemployment rate, manipulation of the markets, currencies collapsing around the world and the U.S. dollar. To listen to the interview, please click below. Andy Hoffman – Republic Broadcasting Network – October 14, 2014
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Post-Foreclosure Hell: Garnished Wages, Seized Assets, Deficiency Judgments
In 2009 and 2010 "Walking Away" was the rage. (skip the adds and scroll down to my list of articles). Back then, I frequently cautioned Before Walking Away Consult An Attorney, advice repeated in nearly every reference to the practice. Walking away without declaring bankruptcy, especially with a recourse mortgage was always a dangerous practice. Moreover, law is complicated because rules vary from state to state, and non-recourse loans often became recourse loans if refinanced. Post-Foreclo
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Top Secret Spacecraft Returns to Earth This Week After Two Years in Space; Rods From God
A US Air Force X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle has been in space for two years conducting top secret research. Mission The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, or OTV, is an experimental test program to demonstrate technologies for a reliable, reusable, unmanned space test platform for the U.S. Air Force. The primary objectives of the X-37B are twofold: reusable spacecraft technologies for America's future in space and operating experiments which can be returned to, and examined, on Earth. Features The X
Wednesday, October 15, 2014

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