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| RATIOS & INDEXES |
| Gold / Silver | 61.82 |
| Gold / Oil | 14.53 |
| Dowjones / Gold | 10.96 |
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 | Opinions and Analysis |  |
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 | Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| And … We are back |
| After missing the Oklahoma tornado by about 2 hours and 100 miles, we are now back home after logging about 3,700 miles on our trip to the Upper South (as detailed here).
I’m still trying to catch up on what’s been going on after some wild market moves, Fed news yesterday, and more wild market moves today. Didn’t catch any of yesterday’s Bernanke testimony, but Jim Grant offers some thoughts on the subject in this CNBC interview.
After, basically, taking the last month off due to travel, surgerThursday, May 23, 2013 |
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 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Another Warning Call for Depositors! Bank of Spain Says Spanish Banks Need €10bn More Loan Loss Prov |
| Here's an optimistic headline on the Financial Times that could easily be off by a factor of 10 or more: Spain’s banks need €10bn more provisions.
Spanish banks will need to put aside extra provisions of up to €10bn to cover loans that borrowers will struggle to repay, according to an internal estimate by the Bank of Spain.
According to recent data, Spanish banks rolled over more than €200bn of loans before they expired – often because corporate borrowers would be unable to repay their debt oThursday, May 23, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Christine Lagarde, Head of IMF, In Court Facing Questions on Embezzlement and Fraud |
| Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, is in court today addressing her role in a $366 million payout to Bernard Tapie, a close friend of former president Nicolas Sarkozy who was also Lagarde's boss at the time. Lagarde was Sarkozy's finance minister.
Reuters reports IMF's Lagarde in court for French arbitration case.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde was questioned in court by French magistrates on Thursday over her role in a 285-million-euro ($366 million) arbitration payment made to a supporter of fThursday, May 23, 2013 |
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 | Chris Powell - GATA |
| Dan Norcini: Fed-caused volatility has destroyed U.S. markets |
| Futures market analyst Dan Norcini, interviewed Wednesday by King World News, threw up his hands in exasperation at the Federal Reserve's jawboning the markets back and forth, resulting in tremendous volatility.
"This sort of perverse volatility is further evidence that the Fed has destroyed the integrity of the U.S. financial markets," Norcini said. "They are now a mere playground with no useful or legitimate commercial purpose."
Norcini's interview is excerpted at the King World News blog herThursday, May 23, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Japanese Bond Rout Continues; BoJ Vows to Curb Bond Turbulence; Curbing Turbulence is Theoretically |
| Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching a major selloff in Japanese bonds. Here are a couple charts to consider.
10-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield
5-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield
Since March 4, the 5-year yield has gone from 0.1% to 0.43%. Although a mere .33 percentage points, the move represents a 330% percent rise in in yield.
One Month Changes
Charts courtesy of Bloomberg
Note: Those charts were snapshots taken last evening. This morning, yields have settled down, fThursday, May 23, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
 China Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction |
| The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ shows China Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction.
Key Points
Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 49.6 (50.4 in April). Seven-month low.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 51.0 (51.1 in April). Three-month low.
click on chart for sharper image
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The cooling manufacturing activities in May reflected Thursday, May 23, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Rand Paul Has the Right Idea, Congress Should Apologize to Apple; Holy Grail of Tax Avoidance; The " |
| Rand Paul created quite a stir in Congress when he Tweeted 'The Senate should apologize to Apple'.
@SenRandPaul:
Instead of examining our broken tax system, the US Senate is about to
harass Apple-one of the greatest business success stories in history.
@SenRandPaul: I am offended by a $4 trillion government bullying, berating and badgering one of America's greatest success stories.
@SenRandPaul:
To US Senate: I say, instead of Apple executives, you should have
brought in a giant mirror if Wednesday, May 22, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Bernanke's Semi-Annual Tap-Dance of Distortions, Half-truths, Lies, and Hypocrisy to U.S. Congress |
| Inquiring minds with extra time on their hands this morning are plodding through the Full Transcript of Bernanke's Testimony To Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress looking for the usual collection of half-truths, distortions, and outright lies it usually contains.
Here are some point-by-point statements by Bernanke with my comments immediately following each set of statements.
Bernanke: Conditions in the job market have shown some improvement recently. The unemployment rate, at 7.5 percentWednesday, May 22, 2013 |
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 | Jesse - Le Café Américain |
| SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Rough Seas Ahead |
| Early today the markets soared on initial indications from Bernanke of Quantitative Easing, for as far as the eye can see.
Then Bernanke's response to some questions cast some clouds, and the markets reversed sharply.
Make no mistake. There is little underpinning the equity market except for monetary froth.
Rough seas ahead. Batten down the hatches.
Ben is pouring oil on troubled waters. But it may not be enough, or even hazardous in its own right.Wednesday, May 22, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Abenomics in Review: Yen, Inflation, Exports, Imports |
| With the Yen collapsing vs. all other currencies, inquiring minds may be wondering how prime minister Shinzo Abe's inflation policy is working out in practice. Let's start with a look at the Yen.
Yen Daily Chart for One Year
In the last year, the Yen has fallen from 124.79 to 97.56. That is a decline of 21.82%. Recall that Abe's policy is an attempt to raise inflation and spur exports.
Japan Still in Deflation
On May 19, Reuters reported Japan's Amari: core core CPI showing signs of turnWednesday, May 22, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Merkel Pins Cameron in Corner; Will Cameron Bury His Head in the Sand, Pretending to Not Notice? |
| UK prime minister, David Cameron, promised to hold a referendum on whether Great Britain should remain in the EU, but only on two conditions. The first condition, that Cameron be re-elected as prime minister is iffy enough.
The second condition, that Cameron renegotiate the Lisbon Treaty, I said would never happen. And it won't.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel sealed the fate on that score as Berlin plans to streamline EU but avoid wholesale treaty change.
Berlin is drawing up plans for treaTuesday, May 21, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Obamacare Premiums 47% Higher But Deductibles 27% Lower Than Grandfathered Health Plans; Obamacare L |
| Here's the question of the day: If you have a choice (and you many not for long because companies are abandoning grandfathered plans) Should you skip Obamacare and keep your old plan?
Any policy in place on March 23, 2010, the day health reform was enacted, falls under the grandfather exemption. As the Obama administration put it, if you like your plan, your doctor or both, you can keep them. Last year some 60 percent of employers, large and small, offered at least one grandfathered plan duriMonday, May 20, 2013 |
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| Jesse - Le Café Américain |
| SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pause Ahead of Bernanke's Wednesday Testimony |
| There is no major economic news scheduled for tomorrow. Let's see if the wiseguys can keep the 'Rally Tuesday' trend going.
Zimbabwe Ben will be testifying to the Congress on Wednesday morning, and the FOMC minutes from the May 1 meeting will be released.
VIX is subdued, and the SP 500 cash is overbought.Monday, May 20, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Poll Shows 46% in UK Want to Exit EU, 30% Want to Stay In |
| By a wide margin, but not quite a majority (yet), Let's quit EU say 46 per cent of voters in poll.
Asked the exact question Conservatives want to put the public in the 2017 referendum – “Do you think that the UK should remain a member of the EU” – 46 per cent opt to come out, a higher figure than in other recent surveys.
Just 30 per cent say they want to remain.
In a further boost for the eurosceptic cause, 44 per cent want an “in/out” referendum immediately, although 29 per cent are preparedSaturday, May 18, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Protests in Italy Against New Coalition; How Long Will Coalition Last? |
| The new coalition government in Italy is off to such a rocky start, it's hard to say there ever was a honeymoon.
People want more jobs. Instead, the price for a coalition by former Prime Minister Mario Silvio Berlusconi was a rollback in property taxes.
Here is the result: Thousands rally in Rome against cuts.
Thousands of protesters, led by trade unionists, have rallied in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government. Wielding red flags and placards, they uSaturday, May 18, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| How Clueless Are Manufacturing Future Expectations? |
| Month in and month out I see unwarranted optimism in Europe and in the US.
For example, on Thursday I stated "Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far Too Optimistic".
Here is the chart I posted:
That chart got me to wondering "just how wrong are future expectations historically?" The data is available, all one has to do is chart it.
I asked Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives if he could produce a chart of future expectations offseFriday, May 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| EU Emissions Trading in Tatters (As It Should Be) |
| The Wall Street Journal reports Emissions trading in Europe in Tatters.
The European Union's flagship program to fight global warming—a regional carbon-emissions trading system—suffered a major blow Tuesday when legislators rejected a proposal aimed at saving the market from collapse.
After the European Parliament's rejection, spooked investors drove the already depressed price of carbon emission permits down by nearly half. Benchmark electricity prices also fell. Europe's Emissions Trading SThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far |
| The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey shows regional activity weakened with current indicators negative. The Six-Month Outlook brightened in what I believe is rampant over-optimism.
"The current activity index has shown no pattern of sustained growth over the past seven months, generally alternating between positive and negative readings."
Note the negative slope of current conditions and future expectations. Current conditions are in recession territory.
Philly Fed at a Glance
BusiThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Brussels Puts Spain Under Surveillance; Brussels Denies Putting Spain Under Surveillance |
| Here is an amusing set of back-to-back headlines regarding Spain.
Via Mish-modified Google translate from La Vanguardia Brussels Puts Spain Under Surveillance for Economic Imbalances
Spain will be placed under European supervision and its political leeway in deciding what reforms the economy agree will be reduced.
European monitoring will take place in the labor market and a review of the pension system and some economic reforms from now must be agreed with Brussels. Spain gets "two extra yeThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Breakout in Japanese 10-Year Bond Yield |
| Curve Watchers Anonymous has its eye on global interest rates. For example, please consider this chart of 10-Year Japanese bonds.
click on chart for sharper image
Chart courtesy of Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark.
I have been paying close attention to Japanese yields in light of this statement by the Bank of Japan chief: "I do not expect a sudden spike in long-term bond yields."
I commented on the statement on Saturday in Expect a Spike in Long-Term Japanese InteresWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Triple Dip Recession in France; It's Not the Weather |
| France slipped into its third recession in four years as Germany barely went into positive territory, underperforming general expectations.
The Financial Times reports France contracts in 1st quarter as Germany returns to growth
French GDP shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, the same rate of decline as the final three months of 2012, according to Insee, the national statistics office. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation, remained weak, falling a further 0.9 per centWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| In Rare Praise of Teachers |
| I do not frequently stand with teachers. It's not that I have anything against teachers. I don't. Teaching is an honorable profession.
Those who understand my stance, know full well my problems sit with teachers' unions, administrators, and union work rules.
Far too often I hear requests for tax increases allegedly "for the kids" when really the tax increases are for the teachers and administrators, not the kids.
Something Different
Today, I want to report something different. I want to peoWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Jesse - Le Café Américain |
| The Bullish Case For Stocks (and a Commensurate 'Repricing of Risks' Caused By Fed Intervention) |
| Here is the 'bullish case for stocks' from Ralph Dillon at Global Financial Data, in quotes below. The chart is also from their site.
Calculating the Equity Risk Premium Tutorial is here.
Those of us who stood by and watched the Fed blow asset bubbles in financial paper and the housing market from 2003 to 2007, after the bubble in tech stocks from 1998 to 2001, are understandably appalled that the Fed has seen fit to follow essentially the same game plan again, matched by a lack of reform inTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Will Shinzo Abe Succeed with Constitutional Changes to Militarize Japan and Further Destroy the Yen? |
| As noted previously Shinzo Abe Seeks Constitutional Changes for a More Militaristic, Authoritarian Japanese Society. Today's question is: Will Abe Succeed?
The answer boils down to election math. Japan News shows 63 and 100 are crucial figures in upper house election.
click on chart for sharper image
Resolving the problems of the divided Diet and revising the Constitution depend on two key numbers--63 and 100.
The House of Councillors election this summer will determine whether the rulingTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Wine Country Conference Speaker Presentations All Posted (Hussman, Chanos, Martenson, Pettis, Mauldi |
| In case you missed it, please note that all of the presentations at the Wine Country Conference have now been posted. They are about 45 minutes each except for my short opening remarks.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock Conference Welcome Remarks
Chris Martenson: A Grand Experiment: Q&A with John Mauldin
John Mauldin: Unsustainability: Q&A with Lauren Lyster
Jim Chanos: China: The Edifice Complex: Q&A with Lauren Lyster
Mike “Mish” Shedlock: A Brief Lesson in History: Q&A with Chris Martenson
John Hussman:Tuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| UK Does Not Need EU or Vice Versa; Problem Entirely in Cameron's Head |
| Wolfgang Münchau writing for the Financial Times correctly asserts Lord Lawson is right – Britain does not need Europe
In discussing the pros and cons of Britain’s membership of the EU, the most important point to remember is this: the terms of an exit are freely negotiable. This means that the economic consequences will depend to a large extent on those exit terms.
In his article in the Times last week, Lord Lawson, a former UK chancellor, argued that the regulatory costs of the single marketTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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 | Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
The Ultimate Doomsday Provision: “Designed For Those Exceptionally Rare Circumstances Wh  |
| Though the following 2002 court case ended with the liberal Ninth Circuit ruling that, “the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution does not guarantee individuals the right to bear arms,” at least one judge stood in dissent.
In his dissent, Judge Alex Kozinski argued with the very reasoning our founding fathers used to include the right to bear arms in the U.S. Constitution to begin with.
It may be a decade since the Ninth Circuit attempted to rewrite our fundamental law of the land (Tuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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 | Charleston Voice |
| Hidden History Ancient High Technology - a Beetlejuice Headspinner |
| The introductory 5 min. dialogue commentary is quite sluggish in its format, but if you make it to the 15 min. marker you'll be hooked to the end. More grist for your discerning mind.
How did they do it?
There's a huge difference between when you read in a book and see on TV and what you can see with your own eyes.
For more Hidden History videos, click hereTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Social Mood Darkens in Europe, Especially France, as Eurozone Economy in Freefall |
| A PEW study on European Attitudes shows social mood is darkening in the Eurozone, but especially in France.
The 78 page study "The New Sick Man of Europe: The European Union" is worth a look in entirety, but let's turn the spotlight on France.
France in Free Fall
The euro crisis first undermined France’s economy, and now there is strong evidence that it has severely eroded French public attitudes toward the economy, the European project and the country’s domestic leadership. Moreover, FranceTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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