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Most read articles
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Argentina "Determined to Default" Second Time
Background: Argentina defaulted on bonds following a debt crisis in 2001-2002. 92% of the investors agreed to haircuts, but a vulture fund picked up an 8% share at rock bottom prices and refused to negotiate. In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that Argentina Cannot Selectively Default on the small group of hold-outs. The problem with the ruling is that if Argentina pays the vulture fund full value, it will have to pay all the bondholders full value, and that would wreck the country again.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Caught in Third Major Lie? Magic Number 312
I have strong evidence from Ukrainian citizen Anatoly Shary that Kiev is caught in a third major lie regarding Buk deployment. It takes a while to go over the evidence, condensed below, all having to do with the number 312 painted on a missile launcher. Follow the Number On March 8, Censor.Net, a Ukrainian Nationalist cite, says "Ukraine Defends Donetsk From Russian Incursion: 'Buk' Air Defense Rocket Systems Are Taking Up Positions. PHOTO + VIDEO" The sub-headline reads: "A resident of Gor
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts
"If you follow issues like Too-Big-To-Fail or Wall Street corruption long enough, you realize that the reason things don't get done about them by our government has very little to do with ideology or even politics, in the way most of us understand politics. Instead, it's a bizarre, almost tribal mentality that rules our capital city – a kind of groupthink that makes extreme myopia and a willingness to ignore the tribe's ostensible connection to the people who elected them a condition for social
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Peak Madness
Since TPTB realized their fiat Ponzi scheme had passed the “point of no return” in mid-2011, market manipulation has reached heights never before imagined – culminating in last week’s “absolute peak of lunacy,” when Goldman Sachs invoked the long discredited “Fed Model” to predict the S&P 500 would double by year-end if both Treasury yields and corporate earnings utterly implode.  Which, by the way, may well occur if the nearly all-time low in the Baltic Dry Index (including the weakest July in
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukrainian Buk Air Defense System Allegedly Deployed Near Donetsk Yesterday; Questions Still Linger
A Russian news website claims Ukrainian Army Buk Missile Likely Downed Malaysian Plane. A Ukrainian army battalion of Buk air defense systems was deployed near the city of Donetsk a day before the crash of a Malaysian passenger plane on Thursday, making the downing of the aircraft by one of the missiles highly probable, an expert source said. "According to reconnaissance data, a Ukrainian army battalion of Buk air defense systems was deployed near Donetsk on Wednesday morning,” the source sai
Friday, July 18, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Contained
Contained When history books are written, last week may be described as the turning point in the – war between TPTB’s five-year deception – via money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda – and the reality that the terminal stage of history’s largest Ponzi scheme has arrived.  Sure, they still have a few tricks up their sleeve – like last night’s 54th “Sunday Night Sentiment” attack of the past 55 weeks, and 259th “2:15 AM” raid of the past 292 trading days, whilst the only material ove
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Yellen Yap: Silliness, Outright Lies, and Some Refreshingly Accurate Reporting
Yellen Yap Silliness The spotlight on Fed Chair Janet Yellen is rather amusing given she is more disingenuous than former Chair Ben Bernanke. Some of the headlines are downright silly. For example, Bloomberg reports Dollar Rises to Highest in 3 Weeks on Yellen Comments. The dollar reached the strongest in a month versus the euro as wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast and the Fed saw modest to moderate growth in June. New Zealand’s dollar slumped the most in seven weeks after
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
EU "Red Tape Hell"; Dust Settles on Appointment of Juncker; Time for an Up-Down Vote
Jean Claude Juncker (Mr. "Lie When It's Serious") is already accused of sending the UK down the drain. Please consider British firms fear red tape hell as EU orders equality and green energy reports. British companies will be forced to publish details of their environmental impact and efforts to improve “gender equality” under a diktat from Brussels. Bureaucrats want all large firms in the European Union to include details of their policies on “environment, diversity and human rights” in the
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
SP 500 and NDX Futures Charts - Rally Around the Banks Boys
US equities rallied today for no particular reason, except perhaps that nothing 'bad' had happened over the holiday weekend. Bubbles will give her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony tomorrow to the Congress. Have a pleasant evening.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
"Treasury Bond Undervalued" Says Hoisington Second Quarter Review; Path to Fiscal Ruin
The Hoisington Investment Management, Second Quarter 2014 Review and Outlook makes the case "Treasury Bond Undervalued". Thirty-year treasury bonds appear to be undervalued based on the tepid growth rate of the U.S. economy. The past four quarters have recorded a nominal “top-line” GDP expansion of only 2.9%, while the bond yield remains close to 3.4%.   To put the 2.9% change in nominal GDP over the past four quarters in perspective, it is below the entry point of any post-war recession. Ev
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Did the Rebels Have a Buk System? How About a Working One? Flight Diverted Over Restricted Space?
People seem to have their minds made up on whether or not the plane was shot down and by whom. The propaganda du jour is the separatists were responsible. By even discussing alternatives, ridiculous accusations have come in about "Mish" being a Russian name. The first casualty in war is always the truth. Statements from both sides are suspect. Here is another update from  reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian, regarding whether or not the rebels had a Buk
Friday, July 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Email from Ukraine Portfolio Manager; Obama Idiocies and Ironies
President Obama came out swinging today and issued a Stern Warning to Russia on Isolation in response to the crash of MH17. Barack Obama has warned Russia it risks further international isolation if it does not intervene directly with the pro-Russian separatist rebels to "compel them to co-operate" with the investigation into the crash of MH17. He questioned why the rebels would want to prevent international observers and investigators access to the crash site. "What exactly are they trying
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
  Warren, Yellen, and Too Big to Fail
It appears they left the best for last yesterday as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closed out day one of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress with this wholly unsatisfying exchange about too-big-to-fail banks (hat tip Not Quant). Skip to the 1:34:45 mark of the entire CSPAN video here to find another interesting exchange, this one with Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) where Yellen is asked whether it might not be a better idea to just not create so many asset bubbles to b
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Sorting Through All the Possibilities; Ukraine Accuses Russia of Deliberately Downing MH17; Brawl in
Only the person or persons who fired the missile know the truth for sure. Yet Ukraine now says "Russian Officer Downed MH17". A brawl then ensued in Ukrainian Parliament following a vote to increase troops battling rebels. Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security, made the accusation in an interview with CNN. The person was "absolutely" a Russian, he said. "A Russian-trained, well-equipped, well-educated officer ... pushed that button deliberately." Moscow has denied claims
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Tuesday Morning Links
MUST READS Yellen may face grilling on Fed rate hike plans – USA Today What to Watch for in Yellen’s Testimony This Week – WSJ Draghi Seen Handing $1 Trillion to Banks in ECB Offer – Bloomberg Traders look for Yellen to push S&P500 over 2,000 – Arabian Money How Janet Yellen is redefining the Fed – New Yorker CNBC’s Rick Santelli Loses It Over Fed Policy – Time Santelli’s Rant Shows What Janet Yellen Is Up Against – New Republic Santelli Slams Fed: “Not Created To Be A Feel-Good Institution” – Z
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Historical Norms
“HISTORICAL NORMS” Following last week’s soon-to-be-infamous Yellen quote that “price equity ratios and other measures (of stock, bond, and real estate valuation) are not outside historic norms,” I thought I’d do a bit of thought-streaming – starting with what an “historical norm” refers to. Since this blog focuses principally on financial topics – and specifically, money – “historical” can refer to trends going back to the dawn of man. As a leading Precious Metals purveyor, Miles Franklin has b
Monday, July 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
The Blame Game
Blaming others for your own transgressions is widespread, so widespread that I have written several posts on this subject. Here is another. The Financial Times reports Ukraine Accuses Russia Over Downed Military Aircraft. Ukraine on Monday said a missile that downed a military transport plane in the east of the country was “probably” fired from across the border from Russia, as fighting in the region continued to intensify between pro-Russian rebels and government forces. The accusation cam
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Reuters Debunked: Khodakovsky Denies Interview Aspects
As I suspected would happen, the exclusive Reuters interview in which "Commander Alexander Khodakovsky acknowledges rebel fighters had BUK missiles" has been challenged. In my analysis of the Reuters article (see Ukraine Rebel Commander Admits Having BUK Missiles; Damning Contradictions?),  I point out considerable discrepancies in what Reuters author Anton Zverev wrote and actual quotes Reuters presented. The discrepancies were so big I stated "It appears to me Reuters may have stretched thi
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
What Could Go Wrong?
Via Deutsche Bank and this Business Insider item comes the graphic below that is only slightly out-of-date following geopolitical developments yesterday in Ukraine and Gaza. It appears that markets are already getting over both of these stories as prices for safe haven investments such as Treasuries and gold are tumbling while stock market futures are up, though the latest data indicate only a portion of yesterday’s decline has been reversed. /* Friday, July 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Triple Whammy for German Economy
I have a guest post this morning from Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen regarding the slowing German economy. Steen says the German economy is decelerating too quick for comfort and faces a triple whammy from Asian rebalancing, the US economy, and a bad energy policy. From Steen Jakobsen Germany May Have Won the World Cup, but Its Economy is Cooling Fast We need to congratulate Germany on its World Cup win. It was a victory for organisation and science, but unfortunately the Germany ec
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Video of Rebel Buk Launchers Headed Back to Russia? No - Images From Ukraine-Held Territory Since Ma
Update: The video clip I displayed earlier today was likely the downing of an An-30 last month not Malaysian flight MH17. Once again it is very difficult to sort through all the propaganda. Both sides are involved. Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian provided this update three hours ago. Hello Mish, On Friday, the Daily Mail, one of the major UK tabloids carried photos and video of what was alleged to be a rebel "Buk" launcher heading back to Russia.  The arti
Monday, July 21, 2014
Chris Powell - GATA
UK's Serious Fraud Office to launch criminal probe into forex rigging
By Harriet Dennys The Telegraph, London Sunday, July 20, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10978850/Serious-Fraud-Offic... The Serious Fraud Office is poised to launch the first criminal investigation into alleged rigging of the L3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange markets at leading City banks. The financial watchdog is expected to announce the move as early as this week, according to reports, raising the spectre of further multimillion-pound fines for Britain's biggest banks over
Monday, July 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
"To Stop Being Trapped, Stop Lying"; Ukrainian Soldiers Tending Buks in Eastern Ukraine?
Anatoly Shary, the Ukrainian citizen who started the "312" Investigation (see Ukraine Caught in Third Major Lie? Magic Number 312) has a 1 minute 44 second video update in which he claims to know when and where Kiev made that bogus claim. Link if Video Does not Play: Я нашел российский БУК Captions in English "Each conscious citizen must help the security service of his country. I finally decided to help, once and for all, the Security Service of Ukraine to fins the Buk that, according to
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Retail Sales Post Modest Gain
The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales rose less than expected last month, up only 0.2 percent in June following an upwardly revised gain of 0.5 percent in May. The consensus estimate for June was a gain of 0.6 percent and the miss was largely due to a surprise decline of 0.3 percent in auto sales last month. Retail sales less autos rose 0.4 percent and when both autos and gasoline are excluded, sales also rose 0.4 percent. Sales increased for nine of the thirteen major catego
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Wednesday Morning Links
MUST READS China’s economic growth picks up – BBC BRICS establish $100B bank, currency pool to cut out West – RT News Yellen: Fed Will Continue to Prop Up Economy – NY Times Janet Yellen on the Everything Bubble – The Upshot Fed tries new role as line judge for markets – WSJ ‘Artificial’ Interest Rates Are the Real Deal – Bloomberg A word of caution about a tech bubble from Janet Yellen – Salon What Yellen said on junk bonds isn’t what the market heard – CNBC Yellen, Fed Still Worried About Slow
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Malaysian BA 777 Passenger Jet Goes Down Over Ukraine, 295 Killed; Ukraine Blames Separatists Who De
A second disaster hit Malaysian Airlines today. Bloomberg reports a Boeing 777 crashed near the town of Torez in eastern Ukraine killing 280 passengers and 15 crew. A Ukrainian Interior Ministry official was quick to point the finger, stating that pro-Russian separatists shot down the passenger jet. The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said it did not attack the airplane. The Financial Times has a few more details. A Malaysia Airlines passenger jet has crashed in Ukraine 60km from
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Update ...
Reader David sent an email and accompanying video that purportedly shows the Malaysian Flight 17 being hit by missile. Let's take a look. David Writes ... It appears as if the right engine and wing area took the hit. The camera operator is able to record the moment of impact in the first 2 seconds of this clip. Note the smoke burst left behind on impact with the #2 engine area. There is a 18 second delay (speed of sound delay) due to the distance and altitude of the explosion. Question: How
Monday, July 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Considerable Uncertainty
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY As expected, Whirlybird Janet’s congressional testimony yesterday gibed exactly with what the Fed has said since last month’s FOMC meeting.  Also as (we at the Miles Franklin Blog) expected, she made a mockery of the concept of Fed “omniscience.”  To wit, recall the Fed’s utterly miserable track record of economic forecasting – always on the high side, in large part due to its own, horribly destructive policies.  In “Yellen’s Last Stand” – following the aforementioned, J
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy Let’s start by simply getting the “pink elephant” out of the way. Yesterday’s PM “drive-by shooting,” on essentially the lowest volume trading day of the year, represents an act of desperation as urgent as any we’ve seen to date. In the past month, whilst gold and silver were rising sharply from powerful “triple bottom” formations, the Cartel was naked shorting a nearly unprecedented $20 billion of COMEX futures out of shear panic – culminating in yesterday’s “mystery
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
War & Markets: Less Growth, Less Certainty, More Geopolitical Risk
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank, has a interesting article today on War & Markets I present below as a guest post. Steen says ... Prepare for less growth, less certainty and more geopolitical risk Crude oil price is simplest proxy for geopolitical risk Wars reflect a world where growth is low and energy expensive “There are causes worth dying for, but none worth killing for” – Albert Camus The world is increasingly becoming engaged in civil wars and general turmoil wher
Monday, July 21, 2014

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