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Most read articles
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Occam's Razor and Bank Lending
I received an interesting question on bank lending just a bit ago. The question is in reference to Euro Bond Bubble Guaranteed to Burst where I stated ... "Would QE by the ECB spur European bank lending? Of course not. Banks do not lend from excess reserves. Banks lend (provided they are not capital impaired), when credit-worthy borrowers want credit and banks perceive risks worth lending." Reader Kenneth from Stockholm, Sweden writes ... As a layperson I must say this makes perfect sense,
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
40% of U.S. on Welfare; Obamacare Expands Welfare by 23 Million; More on Welfare Than Full-Time-Empl
As a result of Obamacare Medicaid expansion coupled with means-tested Obamacare assistance, I estimate welfare rolls expanded from 35.4% of the population in 2012 to  about 40% in 2014. Let's go through the math to see how I make that estimate. The latest welfare statistics are from year-end 2012. Those figures show 35.4 Percent: 109,631,000 on Welfare. 109,631,000 living in households taking federal welfare benefits as of the end of 2012, according to the Census Bureau, equaled 35.4 percent
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Rebels Launch Counteroffensive: 4,000 Ukrainian Forces Trapped; Federalism to Save Ukraine?
If you believe mainstream media then you believe the rebels are surrounded, on the run, and a victory party for Kiev is on the way. Other reports tell a far different story. If you believe pro-Russia news sources, the rebels are on the march, headed towards the Black Sea, and a counteroffensive in Donetsk and Lugansk is underway. In this version of the story, the Ukrainian army is stretched way to far, support lines are cutoff, and the army is suffering huge losses of men and equipment. "Donb
Monday, August 25, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Time to Short the US Dollar? Go Long Commodities?
Is it time to short the dollar? Saxo bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen thinks so. Via email from Steen ... What is wrong with changing your mind because the facts changed? But you have to be able to say why you changed your mind and how the facts changed. Lee Iacocca My biggest call all year has been for global lower rates,  and in particular lower core country (Germany, Denmark, and US) yields led by this magic trinity of factors: 1. China and Asia rebalancing growth away from nominal t
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Spotlight on European Bank Lending: Capital Impairment to the Forefront
As noted in German Two-Year Bonds Have Negative Yield, Demand High; Euro Bond Bubble Guaranteed to Burst, " Banks lend (provided they are not capital impaired), when credit-worthy borrowers want credit and banks perceive risks worth lending." So which is it, lack of credit-worthy borrowers or capital impairment. The answer is likely both, but the spotlight goes on capital impairment, and Texas Ratios, a the ratio pf bad loans to equity.   The New York Times DealBook explains Europe Fears Bank
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Return of the Truth
On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses Ukraine, the U.S. economy, Japanese Yen collapsing, July 30th FOMC meeting minutes, unemployment, retail sales and the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.   To listen to the audio, please click below. Download the Audio File: Return of the Truth Video: Return of the Truth
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Idiot's Guide to Austrian Economics
Congratulations go to Forbes columnist John Tamny and editor of Real Clear Markets for producing the "Idiot's Guide to Austrian Economics'. Ironically, that is not exactly what Tamny set out to do. The actual title of Tamny's article is "The Closing Of The Austrian School's Economic Mind". Point by Point Look Tamny: "It’s well known that some Austrians have a major problem with 'fractional reserve banking' whereby banks pay for liabilities (deposits) by virtue of turning those liabilities in
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong
Given misinformation and outright lies by all involved, it's important to consider the both sides of the story. Military Endgame? Jane's Defense claims Ukrainian Military Moves to Endgame. Ukrainian troops have continued their offensive aimed at clearing pro-Russian rebels from the Donetsk and Lugansk regions despite strong resistance. Both the Ukrainian and rebel forces are using tracked armour, heavy artillery, and rockets in the heaviest fighting seen in Europe since the Balkan conflict
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Sixth Sigma Precious Metals Manipulation Proof
It’s another Friday morning; and thus, another “day off” from writing.  However, given how evident it is becoming that the end game of history’s largest Ponzi scheme is approaching, my mind is afire with thoughts.  And thus, I spent last night compiling my thoughts – and nearly two years of data – for this very important article. Yesterday, we wrote of the “Palpable Fear” evident in TPTB’s desperation to hold precious metals down, no matter how suicidal such actions will be in the long-term, whe
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Robot Successfully Hitchhikes Across Entire Length of Canada, Now On Way Back
Meet hitchBOT, a robot from Port Credit, Ontario. HitchBOT Help explains Everything you always wanted to know about hitchBOT, but were afraid to ask. HitchBot successfully hitchhiked from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Victoria, British Columbia, a distance of about 4,000 miles. HitchBOT is now on a return trip. CNN reports ... The gender-neutral robot was conceived by university researchers David Harris Smith and Frauke Zeller, who view its quest as part performance art, part social experiment.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Spain Dips 37% Into Social Security "Piggy Bank", Fund Depletion in 4 Years at Current Rate; What, M
The "recovery" news in Spain keeps piling up. Via translation from El Economista, Government has already taken 37% of the total 'pensions piggy bank'. If extractions continue at the current rate, the fund would be exhausted in 4 years. The Government of Mariano Rajoy has released 24.65 billion euros of the Social Security Reserve Fund in less than two years. Such amount represents nearly 37% of the total 66.815 billion fund accumulation. That figure marks the highest cumulative piggy bank draw
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Argentinian Peso in Massive Slide; Argentina’s Bonds Decline on Plan to Offer Local-Law Swap
In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that Argentina Cannot Selectively Default on a small group of hold-outs demanding full payment on otherwise restructured government bonds. The problem with the ruling is that if Argentina pays the vulture fund full value, it will have to pay all the bondholders full value, and that would wreck the country again. In the future, bond agreements will force everyone to go along with a majority decision. In the meantime, US courts ruled Argentina must negotiate
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Seeks Ceasefire Following 'Very Tough and Complex" Talks With Putin
On August 10, Ukraine said No Cease-Fire Until Rebels Surrender. Things changed. This just in ... On August 26, Reuters reported Poroshenko Seeks Ceasefire After 'Very Tough' Talks With Putin. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko promised after late-night talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin to work on an urgent ceasefire plan to defuse the separatist conflict in the east of his former Soviet republic. The first negotiations between the two leaders since June were described by Putin as posit
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Rebels Claim Liberation of Mariupol Imminent: War Zone Map Update August 13 vs. August 24
A lot has happened since Western media reported on August that rebels in Donetsk were surrounded. Here is the map of major military operations from my August 13 post Multi-Pronged Attack on Donetsk Rebels Likely Within Days. click on map for sharper image Legend Blue jets inside red circles are locations where Ukrainian military planes are confirmed to have crashed after being shot down. (This is only for the period of the map, August 1-10. Blue jets shooting into blue circles are lo
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Deflation Fallacies
As the financial world nears the end of its six-year trek across the Sahara Desert of money printing, market manipulation and propaganda, en route to the same result of all such journeys, when undertaken without water – new “false memes” appear to emerge on a daily basis.  From “tapering” to “recovery” to “de-escalation,” new reasons to shun precious metals – and buy financial assets – are fabricated to “kick the can” one last mile.  Few such reasons actually make sense, and fewer still are actu
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Palpable Fear
In last month’s “Most Resolute Precious Metals Bulls,” we wrote of how whether a certain technical analyst’s prediction that a major PM attack was forthcoming, we wouldn’t need the slightest bit of “resolve” to maintain our physical gold and silver savings – which insure us against the inevitable fiat crash, and don’t become less “valuable” when attacked by naked shorting.  Regarding his reasoning, we disagree completely; as in our view, markets have been so distorted by government intervention,
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Election Jackpot Scratch and Sniff: LA Proposes Free Lottery Tickets if You Vote; Romney Says Obama
Turnout in some Los Angeles elections is so low that LA Considers Giving Citizens Lottery Tickets if they Vote. With as few as 8% of registered voters showing up to vote in some recent elections, the Los Angeles Ethics Commission has urged the City Council to consider improving turnout with a lottery pilot program. No actual vote would be required, but those participating would have to show up at the polls to participate. There was no decision on what the grand prize for participating in the
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
German Two-Year Bonds Have Negative Yield, Demand High; Euro Bond Bubble Guaranteed to Burst
Central bank money madness continues with market participants expecting QE to begin in Europe. Will it spur lending? Of course not. Banks do not lend from excess reserves. Banks lend (provided they are not capital impaired), when credit-worthy borrowers want credit and banks perceive risks worth lending. The ECB tried to spur lending by charging, rather than paying interest on excess reserves. The results are in: Yield on Two-Year German Bonds is Negative German two-year debt yields held clos
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Jane's Defense Caught With Pants Down: Ukraine Admits Rebel Counteroffensive, Including March to the
Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad Take II In response to Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong, a close friend wrote ... Jane’s has been in business giving good advice for a century and could only do so by giving good advice.  Everything I have read suggests that the rebels (who include a lot of Russian paramilitary) would have been about finished this past week, but for supplies coming in through Russian interference. The captured Russian soldiers two days ago day only m
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Andy Hoffman on Butler on Business Show – August 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman joins Alan Butler from the Butler on Business show (1:36:00) to discuss the Jackson Hole meeting, market manipulation regime, the bond market, unemployment rate, retail sales, gold and silver.  To listen to the audio, please click below. Andy Hoffman – Butler on Business – August 21, 2014
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Outright Military Victory by Rebels? Ukraine Offensive in Donetsk and Lugansk Fails 
Outright Military Victory by Rebels? Militarily, if the rebel site maps and discussion are correct, the war may conclude with outright military victory by the rebels. Whether or not you believe these maps or such talk, please note the mainstream media silence on the civil war in the last two weeks. At best, one can safely assume Kiev has nothing good to report. Ukraine Offensive in Donetsk and Lugansk Fails Rebel sites now proclaim Ukraine offensive in Donetsk and Lugansk have failed. Let'
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Obamacare Manufacturing Facts: 85% of Firms Raise Premiums, 91% Raise Deductibles, 74% Raise Out of
A special question on the impact of Obamacare on businesses in the August Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey shows the stunning failure of Obamacare. Here are the results in table form. I added the net results in red. click on chart for sharper image Net Percentage of Manufacturing Firms That ... CategoryNet Percentage Decrease Employment15.2 Increase Part-Time Workers16.7 Increase Outsourcing10.7 Increase prices28.8 Raise Healthcare Premiums 85.3 Raise Healthcare Deductibles91.2 Raise Out
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?
The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive. Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March. Does "strongest since March" mean "strong"? Here are the Key Points: Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August. Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace. A few charts will put this i
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Too Low for Too Long, Round 2
Based on the results of this survey as reported at the Wall Street Journal Economics blog and depicted below, large numbers of U.S. economists are prepping their 2015 (maybe 2016) “I told you so” commentaries as they relate to the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates. I’m not sure if this is round two or three (i.e., I wasn’t really paying attention back in the early-1990s when Greenspan held rates pretty low for a few years) but, either way, it’s kind of disconcerting to see a plethora
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
China Manufacturing PMI Treads Water
Chinese manufacturing is once again treading water, barely above contraction according to the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI. Key points Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.3 in August (51.7 in July). Three-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 51.3 in August (52.8 in July). Three-month low. click on chart for sharper image Comments Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Homeland Security Solicited Bids for “Escort Services for Unaccompanied Alien Children”
The White House would have us believe that the massive flood of immigrants on our southern border was a surprise that no one could have predicted. But a government contract posted in January of 2014 by the Department of Homeland Security tells a shockingly different story. According to the FedBizOpps.gov web site the government was seeking personnel who could provide escort services for “Unaccompanied Alien Children” in anticipation of an event that would leave up to 65,000 minors on our souther
Friday, June 27, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Jackson Black Hole 
My weekly appearance on Kerry Lutz’s radio showis called “Manipulation Monday” – and yesterday’s segment takes the cake, surpassing even the “day of manipulative infamy (and failure)” that was Friday’s “convoy attack” interventions.  Fortunately, the cumulative impact of our work is starting to work; as with just 13% of Americans trusting the government, the “alternative media” that the Miles Franklin Blog operates in is become a powerful enlightening force. The reason we so emphatically speak o
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
What Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi Really Said
Another week passed and another week closer to the end of history’s most destructive financial experiment.  This weekend alone, we witnessed further escalation of the “new Cold War,” China accusing a “sick” America of being a “disgusting, spying thief,” the largest Chinese supply-chain management company warning of “ongoing global macroeconomic weakness”; Secretary of Defense Hagel warning ISIS is more dangerous than al Qaeda, whilst UK Parliamentary leaders call for America to work with Syria’s
Monday, August 25, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Andy Hoffman on the Jay Taylor Radio Show – August 26, 2014
Andy Hoffman speaks with Jay Taylor from the Jay Taylor Radio Show to discuss market manipulation of the precious metals market, the state of the economy, the COMEX, Ukraine, gold and silver. Andy Hoffman – Jay Taylor Radio Show – August 26, 2014
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Overnight Interest Rates Soars to 17.5%; External Debt Cannot Be Paid Back; Ukraine Demands
It's crystal clear Ukraine has no interest in a ceasefire under any terms. Instead it demands rebels lay down weapons and for Russia to stop intervention. In short, Ukraine demands surrender. Thus death and destruction will continue, possibly long after Ukraine takes over Luhansk and Donetsk (or rather what's left of Luhansk and Donetsk). Please consider Ukraine Says It Makes Gains Against Rebels in Luhansk. The Ukrainian government said its forces took control of one of four districts in t
Tuesday, August 19, 2014

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