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Mish - Global Economic Analysis
US Treasury Warns China Over Yuan Depreciation; Treasury Hypocrites; What If?
In yet another case of blatant US hypocrisy, Bloomberg reports U.S. Treasury Warns Against China Reviving Yuan Controls. A backtracking by China in its commitment to move toward a market-determined exchange rate for the yuan would provoke serious concern in the Obama administration, a U.S. Treasury official said. China allowed the yuan to depreciate before widening the exchange-rate band on March 17. The changes occurred as China continued to build current-account surpluses, accumulate exces
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Conspiracy Theory
Last night, Andy Schectman opened Miles Franklin’s “Protect Your Wealth” dinner by caveating that some of the issues we discuss may border the “tin foil hat” realm.  I assure you, there’s not a single topic that Andy, David Schectman, Bill Holter or myself introduce that is not 100% fact based; although, just like all analysts, we at some point must make “educated guesses” regarding non-public variables.  That said, even amidst “truth-friendly” circles, the ability – and/or desire – to reject no
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Reader Question on the Inevitable Los Angeles Bankruptcy; What About Chicago?
In response to LA Commission Studies Pension Crisis, Recommends New Commission; Bankruptcy Inevitable reader Daniel writes ... Hello Mish, Can you please explain why a home owner in a place like Los Angeles would be concerned with their city's future bankruptcy? Will whatever happens not be short lived? I understand that city workers will be affected and that unions and union workers will be affected as well, but how would your typical resident/homeowner be affected in such a situation? Tha
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Armed Men Seize Police Station in Slavyansk; Ukraine Prepares Armed Response; Ukraine Suspends Gas P
The crisis in Ukraine took a turn for the worse this weekend. Many distinct events are in play. Here are a few top headlines Armed Men Seize Police Station in Slavyansk The Wall Street Journal reports Pro-Russia Protests Spread, Police Station Seized. Pro-Russia protests spread Saturday in eastern Ukraine as armed men, some in unmarked, military-style uniforms, moved to commandeer more government buildings—a dramatic escalation that the Ukrainian government and Washington tied to Moscow. Uk
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
GMO 7-Year Real Return Forecast: US Equities Negative For 7 Years
Here is a chart from GMO Asset Forecasts that expresses how I feel as well. 7-Year Global Real Return Equity Forecasts click on chart for sharper image Value and growth within large and small stocks, and REITs, as of March 31, 2014 Estimated returns are negative for US large caps, US small caps, and REITs for every period shorter than seven years. If accurate (and I believe it is), what will that do to pension plans? For further discussion, please see LA Commission Studies Pension Crisis,
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Ukraine Announces Full-Scale Army Operation on Pro-Russian Militants in Seized Buildings; Verge of C
In what some call "crunch time" others a worst case scenario, Ukraine Announces Full-Scale Army Operation on Pro-Russian Militants in Seized Buildings. Ukraine's president says a full-scale operation involving the army will be launched in the east after pro-Russian militants seized government buildings. Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said he would not allow a repetition of what happened in Crimea which was annexed by Russia last month. His live televised address from parliament came af
Monday, April 14, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
JPMorgan Earnings Drop 18.5%; Slowdown in Housing the Real ...
Stocks had been soaring mostly on investor sentiment. That sentiment was partially based on the belief earnings would continue to rise quarter after quarter, year after year. But what if the earnings thesis is not true? The New Yort Times reports JPMorgan Earnings Fall 18.5% on Slowdown in Trading and Mortgage Lending JPMorgan Chase reported an 18.5 percent slump in first-quarter earnings on Friday, as the nation’s largest bank grappled with dual challenges: sluggish revenue from trading and
Friday, April 11, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  State Department Cannot Account for Billions of Contracts; It Can Account for $400,000 for Camel Sta 
The state department cannot account for $6 billion in paid bills. The contracts are missing. Did the contracts even exit? If not the money was stolen. The US State Department is unable to explain how it spent billions of dollars worth of contract funds in areas throughout the world, according to a newly unveiled report by the department's internal watchdog. The Office of Inspector General explained in a March 20 “management alert” to department leaders that approximately $6 billion has gone u
Monday, April 14, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wheel of Fortune
Retail sales came in a little stronger than expected this morning, and Citi turned in decent quarterly numbers, despite its having failed the stress test. So stocks rallied. The action in the rest of this week will let us know if this was a 'relief rally' or something more positive for stock prices. Have a pleasant evening.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
  The New 1%
I have lots to discuss ahead of a big weekend – when I travel to New York, to attend a party celebrating my mother’s 70th birthday and 25th wedding anniversary.  Between now and my flight this afternoon, however, I’ll discuss an exponentially growing list of “horrible headlines” – both in thus forum, and my weekly Audio Blog.  Frankly, I’m not sure where to start, as the list of reasons to avoid paper currencies – and embrace real money – knows no geographic borders; given that, for the first ti
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
A Massive Herd of Elk
This is a simply astounding video of wildlife in Montana and the best part about it is that it happened only a few miles from here in Bozeman. One Austin Stonnell was driving along Kagy Blvd. in the southeast part of town when he happened upon a huge elk herd crossing the road and got out his camera. Not only is the size of this herd astounding and beautiful to watch as the animals jump the fence one after another, but it has some drama at the end (don’t worry, it ends well). The local paper ha
Friday, April 11, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Sentiment Rises, Stocks Fall
Right up until the chart below was prepared, it seemed the key point of this post was going to be that consumer sentiment is holding steady near some its best post-recession levels, but, in looking at the curve below it seems more important to ask what all the hubbub is about in the stock market that, according to some, is in some kind of death spiral. Anyway, the American mood remained near its best levels since the 2008 recession as the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment ind
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Bad News As Far As The Eye Can See
Andy Hoffman joins Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network  to discuss Japan’s sales tax hike, Nikkei flat for 12 months, China’s problems are the world’s problems and non-dollar deals are picking up.  To download the audio, please click below: Andrew Hoffman – Bad News As Far As The Eye Can See
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Charleston Voice
IRS demands Ron Paul's list of donors
By Joel Gehrke | APRIL 15, 2014  via washingtonexaminer Former Congressman Ron Paul gestures during a rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken... Ron Paul's nonprofit Campaign for Liberty will fight the Internal Revenue Service's demand that it reveal its donor list to the agency, despite having already been fined for refusing to do so. "There is no legitimate reason for the IRS to know who donates to Campaign for Liberty," Megan Stiles, the communications director at Campaign
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Hikes Discount Rate from 6.5% to 9.5%, Overnight Rate to 14.5% to Halt Crash of Hryvnia
The Ukrainian Hryvnia has plunged six consecutive weeks to new record lows. Since the beginning of the year, the Hryvnia has fallen from 8.26 to the US dollar, to 13.16 to the US dollar, a decline of 37.2% On Monday, the Ukraine central bank pulled out the bazooka with a massive set of rate hikes. Kiev’s central bank raised the benchmark discount rate from 6.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent and the overnight loan rate from 7.5 per cent to 14.5 per cent on Monday night. “The central bank consi
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Where in the World is Ukraine?
There are some pretty fascinating details behind the map below from this Washington Post survey where respondents were asked to locate Ukraine on a map of the world. To wit: We wanted to see where Americans think Ukraine is and to learn if this knowledge (or lack thereof) is related to their foreign policy views. We found that only one out of six Americans can find Ukraine on a map, and that this lack of knowledge is related to preferences: The farther their guesses were from Ukraine’s actu
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Miguel Perez-Santalla - Bullion Vault
How to Trade "High Frequency" Markets
High Frequency Trading and "quant" technical analysis with a Comex veteran... MATTHEW CIMMINO is the owner of StrategyDB, a leader in multi-asset quantitative technical analysis, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at BullionVault. This week he told me in this interview about how geopolitics, central-bank action, and now High Frequency Trading affect the marketplace. Online Finance Radio at Blog Talk Radio with New York Markets Live on BlogTalkRadio Matthew Cimmino worked on the Comex fu
Monday, April 14, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
"Fixed Income Only Positive Return Asset Class in 2014, 30-Year Treasury Yield Headed to 2.50%" Says
I don't believe the growth estimates of the IMF and neither does Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist of Saxo Bank. Steen goes one further and calls for the yield on the 30-year long bond to drop a minimum of 150 basis points to 2.5%. From Steen via Email 2014 started with high expectations on growth. The IMF, World Bank and ECB were falling over themselves to upgrade growth forecast for 2014 in early January but by now Q1 growth in the US is expected to come in at +1.9% after the initial +2.6% a
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
French Protest Against Austerity and Prime Minister Valls
The French have taken their crusade against austerity to the streets. Organizers say 100,000 hit the streets, government officials say 25,000. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle, but as noted numerous times recently, prime minister Manuel Valls is in the spotlight, and not in a good way. Via translation from Les Echos: Left Take Protest in the Streets Against Austerity. Several thousand people demonstrated on Saturday against austerity and the economic plan of the government i
Monday, April 14, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
A Bad Day for One FedEx Driver
This kind of reminds me of a scene from the 1980 indie movie hit The God’s Must be Crazy as one FedEx driver appears to have forgotten something important when exiting his truck. It’s pretty neat how the truck “threaded the needle” between the tree and the house (akin to what many hope the Federal Reserve will do in formulating monetary policy to withdraw unprecedented stimulus over the next year or so), though the driver’s door didn’t fare well in the process (insert your own Fed metaphor for
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
C’mon Janet, Do It Already!
On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses margin debt, excessive money printing, food and gasoline prices rising, all currencies falling against the dollar, hyperinflation, China, Japan, gold and silver.  To listen to the audio, please click below: Download the MP3 File:  C’mon Janet, Do It Already! C’mon Janet, Do It Already!
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Putin Sends Letter to 18 Countries Threatening to Cut Supply of Gas; China-Russia Gas Deal Expected
The pipeline of natural gas to Ukraine and Europe is on the verge of shutdown this morning. Putin sent letters to 18 countries demanding upfront payment for gas as Ukraine refuses to pay the price Russia wants. Please consider Europe Supply in Jeopardy as Putin Threatens Ukraine Gas Cut. In a letter sent to European leaders and seen by the Financial Times on Thursday, the Russian president said that Gazprom had a contractual right to force Ukraine to pay in advance for gas supplies and in th
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
California Drought Updates: Reader Anecdotes, Well Drilling Boom, Images; Drought Spawns Gold Pannin
An email from reader "Bombillo" got me looking at the drought situation in California once again. Bombillo writes ... Hi Mish, Hope all is well with you. I see you have your wine conference coming up with a great speaker roster! The California drought is now going to grind into the brutal summer season with the full effects to be seen shortly. I have read that since the San Joaquin Valley is not going to be receiving any irrigation water from Federal canal projects (first time ever) a half m
Monday, April 14, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Battlefield $20 Silver
Today is one of those days where I intend to achieve my goal, as there are simply too many important topics to be broached.  Frankly, it is awe-inspiring to watch the daily machinations of global money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda destroying the lives of countless billions.  Each successive manoeuver materially adds to the cumulative misery we anticipate in the coming decade – such as today’s Bank of England decision to maintain its 0.50% interest rate for the sixth straight yea
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?
Bloomberg reports Treasuries Fall Most in a Month as Ukraine Talks End in Accord Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year note yields up the most in a month, as talks on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord aimed at de-escalating the conflict, damping haven demand. Talks in Geneva between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Deshchytsia, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, went on for more than
Friday, April 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Talk of Bloodless Coup in Donetsk; European Countries Resent US Tone; Low Hopes for Peace Talks; War
Another bloodless coup in Ukraine is underway. This time, it's in the Donetsk region. Should it come to that ending, it would be the third Ukrainian coup in a matter of months (counting the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych followed by the coup in Crimea). Talk of Bloodless, Passive Coup in Donetsk Please consider Kiev’s Weak Grip on East Falters. Moscow is only an hour ahead of Donetsk but the inflammatory descriptions emanating from Russia over events in eastern Ukraine on Wedn
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Beef Prices Reach Record High
The LA Times reports that it’s going to be pretty expensive to cook out this summer as beef prices have risen to all-time highs as shown below via as extreme weather and smaller herd have combined to limit supply. One deli owner (think pastrami and corned beef ) noted that his costs are up 45 percent in recent years, a figure that appears to be consistent with the slope of the curve below. We haven’t bought any steaks since last summer, so, I’m sure there will be some sticker
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Ignore The Lies and Protect Your Wealth
It’s early Tuesday morning, and I’m sitting in one of the most peaceful places imaginable the Denver airport at 5:00 AM, where I’m the only sole in sight.  This evening, Miles Franklin is hosting a “Protect Your Wealth” dinner in Minneapolis, Minnesota where Andy Schectman and I will be speaking and I’m looking forward to saying hi to our team and speaking to a large group of truth-seeking investors. Fortunately it’s a quiet morning newswise.  However, the Japanese and European stock markets app
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Wednesday Morning Links
MUST READS Respected Analyst Warns Russian Invasion Imminent – Forbes Russia tries to reassure West, Ukraine over troops – Reuters Kerry, Congress Agree: Superpower Status Not What It Was – Bloomberg IMF warns of risks as global economic recovery continues to improve – xinhuanet Study: Whites more conservative when told they’re becoming a minority – Vox Manipulate Me: The Booming Business in Behavioral Finance – Bloomberg A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends – macroblog 40
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Egon von Greyerz - Matterhorn AM
The IMF and Central Banks are losing control
KWN weekly – April 11, 2014 Greyerz: “Eric, all of the problems in the world have been solved and the risk of another global downturn is zero. At least this is what the IMF has just pronounced. The IMF points to the strong recovery in the U.K. and the U.S. as evidence of this. Let’s first take a look at the U.K. The U.K. is a country running a major structural budget deficit, a massive current account deficit, with a subsidized housing market which is a bubble, and a country where ordinary peopl
Monday, April 14, 2014