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Most read articles
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
GMO 7-Year Real Return Forecast: US Equities Negative For 7 Years
Here is a chart from GMO Asset Forecasts that expresses how I feel as well. 7-Year Global Real Return Equity Forecasts click on chart for sharper image Value and growth within large and small stocks, and REITs, as of March 31, 2014 Estimated returns are negative for US large caps, US small caps, and REITs for every period shorter than seven years. If accurate (and I believe it is), what will that do to pension plans? For further discussion, please see LA Commission Studies Pension Crisis,
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
"Insatiable" Idiocy from the Economist on What to Do About Russia; Warmongers Can't Think
In "Insatiable" the Economist says "The cost of stopping the Russian bear now is high—but it will only get higher if the West does nothing". Economist: Mr Putin has used the Ukrainian crisis to establish some dangerous precedents. He has claimed a duty to intervene to protect Russian-speakers wherever they are. He has staged a referendum and annexation, in defiance of Ukrainian law. And he has abrogated a commitment to respect Ukraine’s borders, which Russia signed in 1994 when Ukraine gave up
Saturday, April 19, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Ukraine Announces Full-Scale Army Operation on Pro-Russian Militants in Seized Buildings; Verge of C
In what some call "crunch time" others a worst case scenario, Ukraine Announces Full-Scale Army Operation on Pro-Russian Militants in Seized Buildings. Ukraine's president says a full-scale operation involving the army will be launched in the east after pro-Russian militants seized government buildings. Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said he would not allow a repetition of what happened in Crimea which was annexed by Russia last month. His live televised address from parliament came af
Monday, April 14, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wheel of Fortune
Retail sales came in a little stronger than expected this morning, and Citi turned in decent quarterly numbers, despite its having failed the stress test. So stocks rallied. The action in the rest of this week will let us know if this was a 'relief rally' or something more positive for stock prices. Have a pleasant evening.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
State Department Cannot Account for Billions of Contracts; It Can Account for $400,000 for Camel Sta 
The state department cannot account for $6 billion in paid bills. The contracts are missing. Did the contracts even exit? If not the money was stolen. The US State Department is unable to explain how it spent billions of dollars worth of contract funds in areas throughout the world, according to a newly unveiled report by the department's internal watchdog. The Office of Inspector General explained in a March 20 “management alert” to department leaders that approximately $6 billion has gone u
Monday, April 14, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Slack, Too Much of It
It will surely be interesting to look back in a few years or so (i.e., after the next financial crisis) at the whole idea of too much “slack” in the economy as being sufficient justification for central banks to have taken such unprecedented actions, money-printing-wise. Here, economist Paul Krugman talks to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene on the subject. It’s easy to sympathize with the unemployed as the global labor market has clearly fallen on tough times in recent years, but, the idea that all yo
Friday, April 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Accord Broken Already; Key Uninvited Group to Peacy Party Doesn't Like the Deal; Reflections
Immediately after the 4-player Ukraine accord announcement yesterday (See Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?) I commented ... Lots of Questions This accord raises more questions than answers. Did anyone consult the separatists? Who is going to enforce the agreement? Is there a single voice, or even a small group of voices who can speak for the separatists? If the separatists are acting on their own, then unless Russia or someone else can convince the separatist
Friday, April 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Inane Step in Wrong Direction: Germany Plans to Lower Retirement Age for Some Workers From 65 to 63
With people living longer and longer, and with Germany forcing higher retirement ages on Greece and Spain, lowering the retirement age in Germany for any set of workers makes no sense whatsoever. Yet, that is exactly what's slated to happen. Wrong Signal The Financial Times reports Germany Attacked Over Plan to Cut Retirement Age. Speaking to national paper Die Welt, Günther Oettinger, German EU commissioner, said that Germany’s plans to allow longer-serving employees to retire at the age of
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Charleston Voice
IRS demands Ron Paul's list of donors
By Joel Gehrke | APRIL 15, 2014  via washingtonexaminer Former Congressman Ron Paul gestures during a rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken... Ron Paul's nonprofit Campaign for Liberty will fight the Internal Revenue Service's demand that it reveal its donor list to the agency, despite having already been fined for refusing to do so. "There is no legitimate reason for the IRS to know who donates to Campaign for Liberty," Megan Stiles, the communications director at Campaign
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?
Bloomberg reports Treasuries Fall Most in a Month as Ukraine Talks End in Accord Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year note yields up the most in a month, as talks on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord aimed at de-escalating the conflict, damping haven demand. Talks in Geneva between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Deshchytsia, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, went on for more than
Friday, April 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Illinois Madness Never Stops; House Committee Wants Taxpayers to Spend $100 Million on Barack Obama
Illinois is broke. Its public pension plans are the most troubled in the nation. Illinois passed massive "temporary" tax hikes to fix the pension problem, but that did not make a dent in  the problem. Nonetheless, ideas to waste more taxpayer money are always on the table. Here's a recent example. $100 Million for Barack Obama Library Today, the Illinois Policy Institute reports by email ... An Illinois House Committee wants taxpayers to pay $100 million for a Barack Obama library. Someho
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Ukraine Hikes Discount Rate from 6.5% to 9.5%, Overnight Rate to 14.5% to Halt Crash of Hryvnia
The Ukrainian Hryvnia has plunged six consecutive weeks to new record lows. Since the beginning of the year, the Hryvnia has fallen from 8.26 to the US dollar, to 13.16 to the US dollar, a decline of 37.2% On Monday, the Ukraine central bank pulled out the bazooka with a massive set of rate hikes. Kiev’s central bank raised the benchmark discount rate from 6.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent and the overnight loan rate from 7.5 per cent to 14.5 per cent on Monday night. “The central bank consi
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Miguel Perez-Santalla - Bullion Vault
How to Trade "High Frequency" Markets
High Frequency Trading and "quant" technical analysis with a Comex veteran... MATTHEW CIMMINO is the owner of StrategyDB, a leader in multi-asset quantitative technical analysis, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at BullionVault. This week he told me in this interview about how geopolitics, central-bank action, and now High Frequency Trading affect the marketplace. Online Finance Radio at Blog Talk Radio with New York Markets Live on BlogTalkRadio Matthew Cimmino worked on the Comex fu
Monday, April 14, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
JPMorgan Earnings Drop 18.5%; Slowdown in Housing the Real ...
Stocks had been soaring mostly on investor sentiment. That sentiment was partially based on the belief earnings would continue to rise quarter after quarter, year after year. But what if the earnings thesis is not true? The New Yort Times reports JPMorgan Earnings Fall 18.5% on Slowdown in Trading and Mortgage Lending JPMorgan Chase reported an 18.5 percent slump in first-quarter earnings on Friday, as the nation’s largest bank grappled with dual challenges: sluggish revenue from trading and
Friday, April 11, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Japan Trade Deficit Largest in History; Imports Soar, Exports Barely Up In Spite of Collapsed Yen
Those who think a collapsing currency are a sure-fire way to increase exports need to rethink their beliefs. Despite a falling Yen, Japan Posts Largest-Ever Trade Deficit. The gap between the value of Japan’s exports and that of its imports grew by more than two-thirds in the 12 months through March, to Y13.7tn ($134bn), according to government data released on Monday. It was the third consecutive fiscal year of deficits, the longest streak since comparable records began in the 1970s. Toyota,
Monday, April 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Fundamentals Always Win! 
This weekend, a long-time reader – and silver holder – wrote the following… If silver is so precious, and the ‘artificial’ price so low, than how come it’s not out of circulation yet?  How come silver is available when you want it?  I call it BS.  If I’m wrong, and I may be wrong, please explain why. This reader has been a big fan, so it’s disheartening to hear this as he, as well as anyone, knows the Miles Franklin Blog’s popularity emanates from its adherence to truth.  And in the case of PM p
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Death of a Market
On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses the Dow, Bank of Japan, paper markets vs. physical markets, sales tax increase in Japan, China, QE, gold and silver.  To listen to the audio, please click below: Download the MP3 File:  Death of a Market Video:  Death of a Market
Friday, April 18, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Glen Greenwald Wins Pulitzer Prize for Exposing NSA Spy Scandal; His Reaction on Video; My Reaction: 
A big round of well deserved applause for Glen Greenwald is in order for willing a Pulitzer Prize for public service. Greenwald says the announcement was "really gratifying." Please consider Glenn Greenwald Reacts To Pulitzer Prize Glenn Greenwald told CNN's Brian Stelter on Sunday that receiving the Pulitzer Prize for public service was "really gratifying." On Monday, Greenwald and other journalists at The Guardian and The Washington Post were awarded the Pulitzer for their reporting on the
Monday, April 21, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
French Protest Against Austerity and Prime Minister Valls
The French have taken their crusade against austerity to the streets. Organizers say 100,000 hit the streets, government officials say 25,000. The truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle, but as noted numerous times recently, prime minister Manuel Valls is in the spotlight, and not in a good way. Via translation from Les Echos: Left Take Protest in the Streets Against Austerity. Several thousand people demonstrated on Saturday against austerity and the economic plan of the government i
Monday, April 14, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
French Telecom Company Does Biggest Junk Bond Sale Ever; Bidding Wars for Junk; AOL Flashback
With central bankers globally suppressing interest rates, the such for yield elsewhere is on. One of the places investors have turned is speculative junk bond offerings. Please consider French Company Does Biggest Junk Bond Sale Ever. Numericable (NUM), which provides cable and internet service in France and other European markets, sold a record amount of high-yield bonds Wednesday with some priced in dollars and others in euros. It's sold $7.78 billion and €2.25 billion in notes that yield
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Talk of Bloodless Coup in Donetsk; European Countries Resent US Tone; Low Hopes for Peace Talks; War
Another bloodless coup in Ukraine is underway. This time, it's in the Donetsk region. Should it come to that ending, it would be the third Ukrainian coup in a matter of months (counting the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych followed by the coup in Crimea). Talk of Bloodless, Passive Coup in Donetsk Please consider Kiev’s Weak Grip on East Falters. Moscow is only an hour ahead of Donetsk but the inflammatory descriptions emanating from Russia over events in eastern Ukraine on Wedn
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
California Drought Updates: Reader Anecdotes, Well Drilling Boom, Images; Drought Spawns Gold Pannin
An email from reader "Bombillo" got me looking at the drought situation in California once again. Bombillo writes ... Hi Mish, Hope all is well with you. I see you have your wine conference coming up with a great speaker roster! The California drought is now going to grind into the brutal summer season with the full effects to be seen shortly. I have read that since the San Joaquin Valley is not going to be receiving any irrigation water from Federal canal projects (first time ever) a half m
Monday, April 14, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Bubbles and “Anti-Bubbles”
My “prior life” ended nine years ago, when I left Salomon Smith Barney after devoting every ounce of my being to financial markets for 16 years.  My insatiable desire for Wall Street success started with my first internship – at Paine Webber – at age 18; and the passion, dedication, and love I had for oil and gas – which I analyzed every day from 1996 through 2005 – was no less than what I put into gold and silver today.  Back then, I was a bit more idealistic, at least, until April 2000, when I
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Egon von Greyerz - Matterhorn AM
The IMF and Central Banks are losing control
KWN weekly – April 11, 2014 Greyerz: “Eric, all of the problems in the world have been solved and the risk of another global downturn is zero. At least this is what the IMF has just pronounced. The IMF points to the strong recovery in the U.K. and the U.S. as evidence of this. Let’s first take a look at the U.K. The U.K. is a country running a major structural budget deficit, a massive current account deficit, with a subsidized housing market which is a bubble, and a country where ordinary peopl
Monday, April 14, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Chinese Gold Reserve Update?
Yet another day with lots to cover, whilst the “New York Gold Pool” defends $1,300 gold as staunchly as “battlefield $20 silver.”  Yesterday, its “Cartel” utilized prototypical DLITG, or “Don’t Let it Turn Green” algorithms to keep both gold and silver negative; and today, following the 206th “2:15 AM” paper raid in the past 232 trading days, “Cartel Heralded” prices when they attempted to break out naturally, at exactly the 8:20 AM open of the COMEX paper market – and again, at exactly the 10:0
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
China Manufacturing Output and New Orders Contract Once Again
Chinese manufacturing remains in contraction for 2014. Output and new orders were down for the 4th consecutive month, but at a slightly reduced pace according to the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI. Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co - Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI stabilised at 48.3 in April, up from 48.0 in March. Domestic demand showed mild improvement and deflationary
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The “New York Gold Pool” – Revisited
I have to admit, I was already in a somber mood when I awoke; as every imaginable Cartel stratagem had been used over the past three days to cap gold and silver’s advances, setting up the “no doubter” overnight attack that was first “signaled” by last night’s “mysterious” gold weakness at the 8:00 PM EST open of the “Globex” trading platform; i.e., the thinnest period of the global trading day, which the Cartel traditionally utilizes to launch paper raids.  At 8:00 PM EST, Americans are eating d
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Taxation Nation
Lots to get to today, as aside from my daily topic, I feel it imperative to commentate on the recent, “counterintuitive” market action.  With so many cataclysmic political and economic events occuring simultaneously, TPTB have gone into “manipulation hyperdrive” in their ongoing, inevitably doomed task of maintaining the façade of stabilty, “recovery,” and “low inflation.” And no example of such “ball juggling” could be more evident than the past two days’ “hail mary” equity rallies, coupled wit
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
What to Do About Secular Stagnation?
Not that it really needed it, but the debate over “secular stagnation” has been rekindled in recent days by a new paper(.pdf) by economists Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra of Brown University that, basically, says we’ve got to save less and spend more if we’re going to achieve higher growth during a period when population growth is slowing and inequality is rising. Higher rates of inflation and more government debt is also encouraged. Here’s Eggertson talking to the folks at CNBC a few days a
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Great Things Keep Happening
Andy Hoffman joins Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network  to discuss platinum and palladium, sales tax hike in Japan sales down 25%, in the U.S. 20 percent food price increase and gold physical demand.  To download the audio, please click below: Andrew Hoffman – Great Things Keep Happening
Wednesday, April 16, 2014