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Today was a breakout day for futures and commodities
mostly in reaction to new record lows on the U.S. Dollar Index and a record
high for crude oil. Credit crunchies at the global
investment banks and those lenders heavily involved in real estate have
reached crisis proportions. The day started with an overseas essay from a UK reporter
that Citigroup was technically insolvent. This bank is holding, by far, the
largest percentage of suspect derivative paper, which some analysts claim is
over $1 Trillion dollars. The Northern Rock Bank in the U.K., it was reported today, has been
supported by government backing to the tune of $30 Billion (U.S.)
dollars. The United States Federal Reserve pumped in an emergency $41 Billion
into the American system last Thursday with little fanfare. Their next
official meeting is on December 11 to decide upon another rate cut. Bond
traders have "baked another 25 basis points into their trading
cake," but we think the FOMC will provide another 25 basis points cut before
the December 11 meeting on an emergency basis. Of course no one is
talking about anything but smoothness and control but we think the entire
world-wide banking system is on the verge of a major event. This was hinted
at today with major reactionary breakouts in precious metals, crude oil and
the usual on-going geopolitical events in the Middle
East.
December gold futures today flew to $824.50, +$13.70
in one trading day. December silver futures closed at $15.405, +$.62 for this
day. Both precious metals have now jumped into higher trading ranges
indicating a larger breakout rally has begun. Silver has been slow but has
now caught up and surpassed hard resistance at $15.20-$15.30. Crude oil
futures for December, 2007 closed at $96.87, +$2.89 for today. This new and
higher crude trading range is $96.50 to $98.50. We at Trader Tracks have
now adjusted our crude oil trading range higher three times in the last ten
days. This is unheard of volatility. Once oil stays above and closes over $98.50,
we move to our 4th newly adjusted forecast of $98.50 to $102.50. Analysts
have stated oil closing over $106 should take it swiftly to $110.00 per
barrel. Heating oil broke a new resistance today at 2.40, closing at
2.6134. Unleaded gasoline closed at 2.4369 breaking our forecast high of
2.40.
The "good" currencies like the Canadian
Dollar, Euro, and Swiss Franc have all become safe haven flight destinations
as traders run away from the U.S. Dollar. While our December Dollar closed
today at 76.00, lower than it's last recorded
low from 1967, the Canadian is 1.0843, the Euro at 1.4565 and the
Swiss being .8757. We cannot tell technically where the C$ goes next
until we do new work in that regard. The Euro is moving to 150.00 and the
Swiss Franc to .9000.
Grains are rallying in a similar event as December
Wheat Futures closed at $7.98 up $.134 and December Corn Futures were $3.862
+.11. Soybeans are proving to have the most rally power recently with the
next most active futures trading month of January, 2008 closing at $10.45 per
bushel, +.242. We are fully expecting soybeans to be selling
between $12.00 and $15.00 in 2008 near their all-time record high prices. China
sold 200,000 tons of soy oil to depress the price and had to immediately buy
it back as prices flew higher.
In summary, we forecast the U.S. Dollar to sell down
further with possible near term support at 72.50; a full four points lower
than today's close. This lower dollar price should drive gold and silver much
higher with increased velocity with expectations for a peaks and
profit-taking correction later this November or, by December 1, 2007. Our
minimum gold forecast is for $850 with potential for $873 and then $930
before the correction. - Traderrog
By : Roger Wiegand
www.Tradertracks.com
Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks
Newsletter and his soon to be opened Daily Tracker for active
gold, silver and energy traders. Roger provides recommendations for
short and longer term trading using stocks, futures and commodities with
specifics.
Contact Claudio Bassi, at Trader Track’s New York City publishing offices for a
trial subscription. Call
718-457-1426 Monday through Friday, 9:30am to 5pm or, e-mail cbassi@miningstocks.com
Recommendations
made in “Trader Tracks” are exclusively those of Roger Wiegand
and the publication is also exclusively the editorial content provided by
Roger Wiegand. TAYLOR HARD MONEY ADVISORS, INC.
(THMA) LOCATED AT 33-42 61ST
STREET, WOODSIDE, N.Y. 11377,
ASSISTS IN THE MARKETING OF “TRADER TRACKS.” However, the views
expressed in Trader Tracks do not necessarily reflect those of THMA (Website:
www.miningstocks.com). Because individual investment objectives vary, this
summary of investments should not be construed as advice to meet the needs of
any particular reader or subscriber. Opinions expressed in Trader Tracks are
statements of judgment expressed at the date and time they were written, and
as such, are subject to change without notice. Roger Wiegand
is not a CFA nor an investment advisor, but a private individual who studies
the markets extensively and offers summary opinions. Before any type of
investment is made, you should always seek advice from your attorney, CPA,
registered broker, or financial advisor. There is considerable risk in market
speculation and investing. There are no guarantees regarding performance and
past performance provides no guarantee of future performance. Your trading
accounts are always subject to the potential for severe or total losses. This
service will involve SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS PROVIDED
AT ANY TIME Roger Wiegand believes it is opportune to
trade either in or out of the market in question. AS SUCH, THIS SERVICE
WILL BE CONSIDERED A PREMIUM SERVICE. The management of THMA, Inc. does
not anticipate trading in the securities recommended in Trader Tracks. No
statement or expression of any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer
to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Trading futures contracts may
not be suitable for all investors. You may lose a substantial amount of money
in a very short period of time. The amount you may lose is potentially
unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally deposit with your broker.
This is because trading futures is highly leveraged, with a relatively small
amount of money used to establish a position in assets having a much greater
value. If you are uncomfortable with this level of risk, you should not trade
futures contracts. If you need a broker, contact mine, Ryan Olson, Managing
Partner, Jackson-Olson commodities at 800-352-5228 or by e-mail
rolson@jacksonolson.com Contact Jackson-Olson Commodities, LLC, 5510 Abrams Road,
Suite# 101, Dallas, Texas 75214.
Local Telephone is 214-691-8600. Fax is 214-691-8614. Jackson-Olson clears
trades through R. J. O’Brien founded 1914. They provide clearing and
execution services in virtually all markets around the globe. To subscribe to
Trader Tracks stocks & bonds, futures & commodities, contact Claudio Bassi with e-mail CBASSI@MININGSTOCKS.COM
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