Gold remaining under 1200 for the quarterly close in price today by Bill Downey


	INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ March 31 2015 Gold Overview Yesterday we gave support at 1178-1182 and 1166-1172. The low so far has been 1178 on Tuesday morning and price has moved back to the 1188 area, basically where we were on yesterday’s intraday update. Odds remain that 1178-1182 or 1166-1172 will be a key support for this week and the odds favorite for this week’s low. On the upside, resistance is now 1196-1201 with and perhaps the 1192 area today. It’s the last day of the quarter and we already penetrated the 2014 yearly close at 1182 with the 1178 probe this morning. Prices quickly moved back above 1182 so the low for the day could well be in place. In summary, either 1166-1172 or 1178-1182 has best odds for this week’s low. We moved above the channel line from the FOMC low at last Thursday’s high and below it now since yesterday. If the trend is still up, gold will recapture the channel line and close above 1195 today. The short term trend is neutral at the moment. The key is whether gold re-captures the uptrend channel line. Cycles The next cycle turn is due April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the “window” for a turn opens on Wednesday. Thus its possible that gold bottoms today/Tomorrow and runs up to the end of the week on another attempt above 1200 and then the next cycle leads to another low near the 18th of the month. However, it is not out of the question for gold to make a BLUE CYCLE LOW on this upcoming cycle. That would be more bullish for gold as it would flip the cycle rotation from Red cycle lows to Blue cycle lows (which is what we want for more sustained rallies). Of course that would mean that the high was put in place early in this last cycle and with all standard deviations, there are always outlier data points in any mathematical data collections. They are rare, but they do occur. Thus it’s not out of the question that we get a cycle low on the Blue cycle due April 4th. Odds favor we bottom at 1178-1182 or 1166-1172 this week. Remember, they are odds, not absolutes. Silver Odds favor either 1625-1650 or 1601-1611 should be this weeks low with the most likely 1625-1650 and that is current support this week. Current resistance is 1690-1705 and 1725-1750. Odds favor 1712-1725 as the high of the week or 1750-1775 with 1712-1725 with the greater potential.

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