In April of this year
researches studying the H7N9 bird flu virus in China advised global
governments to get prepared
for the worst case scenario. According to the World Health Organization, H7N9 is one the most
lethal influenza strains ever identified because it mutates eight times faster than a normal
flu virus, and according to official records, has a death-to-infection ratio
of about 25%.
It was initially believed
that the virus could only be transmitted to humans who have had direct
contact with poultry. After 36 H7N9 deaths and 131 of
infections officially reported since the virus was first
identified, the worst case scenario that many feared may now be on the
horizon.
The Sun China
Morning Post is reporting that researches have confirmed that, not only can the virus be
transmitted from one human to another, but it has gone airborne.
The H7N9 bird flu
virus can be transmitted not only through close contact but by airborne
exposure, a team at the University of Hong Kong found after extensive
laboratory experiments.
Though the virus appears
to have been brought under control recently, the researchers urged the Hong
Kong authorities to maintain strict surveillance, which should include not
only poultry but humans and pigs.
…
In the study, to be
published today in the journal Science, ferrets were used to
evaluate the infectivity of H7N9. It was found the virus could spread through
the air, from one cage to another, albeit less efficiently.
Inoculated ferrets were
infected before the appearance of most clinical symptoms. This means there
may be more cases than have been detected or reported.
“People may be
transmitting the virus before they even know that they’ve got it,” Zhu said.
SCMP via Zero Hedge
It’s important to note
that the Chinese government has never been very straight forward about
statistics, especially if they involve negative perceptions of their country,
so in all likelihood the H7N9 virus has infected countless others.
Though it’s been called
one of the most lethal flu viruses in history by WHO,
Chinese scientists have downplayed the threat by claiming the effects are
“mild,” and the U.S. government has up until now made no decision on whether
to move forward with a vaccine for this particular strain. Earlier reports
indicate that the virus is
resistant to Tamiflu, a drug commonly used to treat most flu symptoms.
H7N9 is reportedly now
under control in China, but we know for a fact that the virus jumped to Taiwan in April, and it may have spread
elsewhere. Given that research shows the virus can spread through the air
before symptoms appear, it’s certainly possibly that an outbreak is in its
preliminary phase right now.
Curiously, the United
Nations reports that the virus has already cost the global economy some $6.5
billion in losses. Those are massive numbers given that only 131 official
cases have been reported.
We’ll know soon enough if
the Chinese government has controlled the outbreak among its one billion
population, and if it’s taken hold in other countries. If it’s airborne, the
contagion will spread like any common cold or flu.
Pandemics have been
responsible for the deaths of hundreds of millions of people throughout
history, and once they start they are very hard to control. With H7N9 having
a mutation rate that is eight times faster than other flu viruses,
it could very well become even deadlier than it is now. Moreover, it could
become even more contagious over time.
The only thing we can do
at this point is to wait for news as it becomes available and take preemptive
steps to prepare for
the possibility of a widespread outbreak.
Hattip Satori