THE MARKET HAS BEEN PROVIDING FACTUAL CLUES SINCE MID-JANUARY
The “be open to bullish outcomes” message is not particularly new. In fact, the blurb below comes from a Short Takes posted dated January 21, 2019:
In last week’s CCM stock market video, we noted the slope of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average told us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes in the days, weeks, and months ahead. A recent development on the breadth front also falls into that bullish-open-mind category.
While it is never easy navigating near a major low (December 2018), the market has provided numerous “this does not look like a bear market” and “this does not look like a recession is underway” clues since the rare breadth thrust that was covered on January 21:
This Never Happened In The 1974, 2001, And 2008 Bear Markets
Rare Bullish Shift In P&F Buy Signals
Learning From The 1998, 2002, 2009, 2011, And 2016 Stock Market Lows
An Extremely Rare Move In Bonds, How Have Stocks And Bonds Performed In The Past?
What Typically Happens When These Charts Flip?
Are Institutions Selling Into This Rally?
Monthly Breadth: Dark Clouds Or A Ray Of Hope?
History Says Stocks Could Rocket Higher Over The Next Two Years
Do The Facts Support Gloom And Doom Or Higher Highs In Stocks?
2019 Market Action Points To Positive Long-Term Outcomes
The Bullish Message From The Stock/Bond Ratio
Are National Financial Conditions Saying The Stock Market Is In Big Trouble?
Bulls Trying To Make A Stand
History Says Stocks Can Perform Very Well After Big Oil Shocks
Bulls Have Setups In Place For Monster Breakout
The Road Ahead May Be Brighter Than Expectations
Trade, Impeachment, And The Conviction Of Buyers And Sellers
Similar Drops In ISM Manufacturing Data
The Six Most Powerful Charts On Wall Street
Demographic Sweet Spot Says Bull Market Could Last Until 2035
Bulls Still Have Support For Upside Breakout
History Says Stocks Could Still Soar To Unimaginable Heights
VOLATILITY IS A NORMAL PART OF ALL TRENDS
As outlined in the posts above dated between January 21 and November 4, the market and economy have provided numerous reasons to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes. Now that stocks are near an all-time high, it can be easy to forget all the volatility that took place between those two dates. The moral of the story is even IF really good things happen in the weeks, months, and years ahead, we can expect a ton of volatility and scary headlines along the way. We will continue to take it day by day with an open mind about all outcomes, from wildly bullish to wildly bearish.