It’s hard not to get hopeful about a possible overthrow of the
Democrats. But will things change as a result? In my opinion, yes and no. As
an analyst for The Casey Report, I
constantly analyze the past to discern future trends. In the last century,
government has grown bigger and bigger, decade after decade. There’s no
reason to expect an alternative outcome for the next decade. In this case,
the trend is not your friend.
If an ETF or derivative tracked market freedom over the last century,
it would probably be a penny stock by now. No one would get excited over an
investment with a hundred-year track record of failure. And hence, we
shouldn’t get too excited about political change.
Perhaps I’m wrong and this is the turning point. But just as
picking the bottom of a stock is next to impossible, predicting the turning
point for a two-century trend is even more improbable. For this reason, I
will not be celebrating when the Democrats are booted out.
The nature of the beast will not change – no matter which party
is in power. Economist Murray Rothbard put it best:
"…the State is nothing more nor less than
a bandit gang writ large."
Many of my free-market friends say, "What a great line!" And
then they quickly return to promising hope and change with a free-market
flavor. However, I take the line quite literally. It’s not a funny jab
at the government but instead a definition. The government is not some
association where we hold hands and decide how to best run the country. The
entire apparatus exists as an engine for wresting hard-earned goods from
productive members of society. Millions depend on this gang writ large,
whether through government contracts, agency jobs, or personal benefits.
Why, it’s not even difficult to find conservatives and
libertarians living off the government dole. The richest counties of this
country surrounding D.C. won’t relinquish their plush lifestyles for any
ideology. Government employees, welfare recipients, and the government-made
millionaires will fight tooth and nail for their money. The Tea Party soccer
mom doesn’t stand a chance.
But some argue that this time, it can be done. Our positions make sense,
the Tea Party has momentum, and things can improve. To an extent, this view
holds some merit. After all, gangs of thieves can improve sometimes.
Could a decent person join the Bloods or Crips
gangs in L.A and improve them? Sure he could. Occasionally, gangs do make
peace treaties with each other. There are careless gangs that murder innocent
bystanders in drive-by shootings, and there are those who assassinate their
opponents with precision. A decent person could negotiate peace treaties and
curb the violence. But what our reformist gang member can’t change is
the nature of the gang.
Many larger criminal organizations perform good deeds for the public.
Whether it’s giving out turkeys at Christmas or even building houses
and soccer fields for the poor, as Pablo Escobar did in Columbia. The
occasional kickback is the norm with large gangs and the governments. When
the Republicans take over, they will likely throw out a turkey or two to the
free-market mobs – most likely through a populist tax cut.
Of course, the D.C. free-market intellectuals will rejoice at these
"victories." However, these gains only work to disguise the
enterprise’s true nature. The small respites from government growth
build false hope in the government process. In reality, the government can
change no more than can the Bloods or Crips. The
king will throw a bone from his table to placate the masses, but don’t
expect him to give up his seat.
Government has been and always will be crime and theft on a large
scale. So, enjoy your Republican turkey when it comes, but don’t expect
a revolution along with it. The road to serfdom continues. At best, our
masters will allow a momentary pit stop on our march for yet bigger
government.
Vedran Vuk
Casey Research
