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The War Against Us

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Published : January 19th, 2012
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Category : Market Analysis





It’s Tuesday afternoon, and just as I started to write my market wrap-up, the following, IMPORTANT headline hit the tape.  Sprott has finally pulled the triggered on a new PHYSICAL silver offering, of up to $250 million, and my bet is all, or nearly all, this amount will be filled.  For the record, PSLV’s premium to Net Asset Value closed at just under 24%, so we’ll see what kind of discount will be required to fill that level of demand (FINAL DETAILS OF THE OFFERING LATER IN THIS RANT!).


Sprott Physical Silver Trust Announces Follow-on Offering of Trust Units


The retail bullion market has slowed over the past month due to the PPT/Cartel-inspired market lethargy I have discussed in recent weeks, but institutional demand is very strong, as $250+ million of silver is a lot of metal to sell overnight.  Clearly the PHYSICAL market has tightened considerably following December’s “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION II” attack, which will only serve to suck more metal out of the market and improve the already ultra-bullish fundamentals.


London Trader – Staggering Gold Demand Creating Shortages


KWN – Silver Eagle Sales Are Exploding, “Demand is Shocking”



Von Greyerz – Silver Shortages & Gold to Accelerate Higher


As for Tuesday’s action, it’s more of the same.  I’ve been the pre-eminent “Cartel Watcher” for the past decade, and I’ve NEVER seen anything like this.  Not just the steady Cartel poundings but the inverse as well, a complete and utter lockdown of the Dow and Treasury markets, which for all intents and purposes are no longer allowed to decline.  To think I made a big deal about heightened suppression tactics following “D-DAY” 14 months ago, mere child’s play compared to the all-out PAPER attacks starting hours after the Labor Day weekend with the commencement of “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION I.”


I ended yesterday’s RANT by observing we were already 3-for-3 for the day, awaiting 12:00 PM EST to see if we’d go a perfect 4-for-4 in the gold attack department.  And the Cartel didn’t disappoint, saving their best for last.  In the “good old days,” gold was NEVER attacked at ALL FOUR key Cartel times – 3:00 AM EST, 8:20 AM EST, 10:00 AM EST, and 12:00 PM EST – until last Fall, and since then this strategy has been employed countless times. 


Look at the WATERFALL decline when gold attempted to go parabolic (above the daily 2% cap) at EXACTLY 3:00 AM EST, the trend-breaking opening plunge at EXACTLY the COMEX open at 8:20 AM EST, the muted, but blatant $4 plunge at EXACTLY the PM Fix at 10:00 AM EST, and the coup de grace, a nonsensical WATERFALL DECLINE at EXACTLY the “cap of last resort” at 12:00 PM EST, another beauty of a trend-breaker.



Meanwhile, silver was under similar pressure all day, and given its smaller market size such WATERFALL DECLINES are always more pronounced, as you can see on this chart.  Clearly, $30.50/oz was being defended to the death, and ultimately the KEY ROUND NUMBER of $30.00/oz that has been viciously suppressed for more than a week now.  Of course, copper, crude oil, and a slew of other commodities – even platinum – rose comfortably more than 2% with as little volatility as the Dow, despite a barrage of horrible headlines I will get to shortly.



Furthermore, today (Tuesday) we have THREE manipulation angles to be cognizant of, albeit just two here in the States.  Americans tend to be more secular than most nationalities, believing the world revolves around the U.S., especially in all matters gold.  America is far from the largest gold producer, and further from being the largest consumer, but since most trades are priced in dollars, Americans erroneously believe U.S. supply and demand dominates the gold market.  In reality, gold is the only international currency, and given recent “safe haven” strength in the “U.S. dollar index,” Americans have NO IDEA gold has been rising in nearly all global fiat currencies.


As I mentioned yesterday, gold is challenging the key €1,300/oz level for the SIXTH TIME in the past six months, a massive resistance level created by intense Cartel pressure.  Both yesterday and today it was above this level most of the day, suddenly plunging below it at day’s end care of the evil ones.  When this key level is exceeded, possibly now due to the aforementioned “staggering demand,” I expect a sharp breakout of several hundred Euros.  The only questions is when, and if you think the Cartel is having trouble keeping gold prices down in the largely anesthetized U.S. market, think how difficult their task is in the chaotic European markets. 


Once again, the only way to understand gold is to realize it is not an “investment” but international, universal MONEY.  Europeans, Japanese, Indians, Brazilians, and Iranians have the same fiat currency fears as Americans, and consequently will compete for every last ounce of available PHYSICAL metal in the coming weeks, months, and years.



Meanwhile, the Dow attempted to shed its gains late in the day, but a mini-”HAIL MARY” rally prevented such a tragedy.  Nowadays, it’s all about PERCEPTION – nothing more, nothing less.  It doesn’t matter that the ECB head described the European situation as “very grave,” i.e. they have two choices, DEFAULT or MONEY PRINTING.  Or that his proposed “solution” to the problem includes the institution of – get this – yet-to-be-created initiatives to enable growth AND austerity.  Quite the enigma, huh?  Talk about Keystone Kops with NO CLUE, intent SOLELY on spraying “buzz words” to the doting press.


ECB’s Chief Warns Situation Is ‘Very Grave’


Apparently, his words were taken to heart by traders of the newly downgraded EFSF bonds, which plunged to levels last seen before the LTRO MONEY PRINTING ORGY was announced.  Of course, you would never know anything is wrong by the great action of the PPT-supported stock markets, which as noted above are no longer allowed to decline.


EFSF Spread Back To LTRO Wides


In fact, per yesterday’s Bizarro World reference, unrelenting PPT support has so tainted the dynamics of what were once freely-traded markets, that clueless “analysts”, “portfolio managers”, and “commentators” are now making up ANYTHING to explain why stocks are always rising, the classic “market action makes commentary” propaganda sought after by manipulators.  For example, the Dow was up 100+ points yet again this morning, so I checked Yahoo Finance to see if any “positive” headlines were being used to explain the strong action.  The top story on the page was the following, depicting exactly what I spoke. 


A normal person would assume “Wall Street rallies on China data” refers to strong economic data suggesting recovery, but in fact this article states the polar opposite, that China’s economy expanded at the weakest pace in 2-1/2 years, “suggesting officials may try to boost growth in the near term by tweaking monetary policy.”  Ah, the mantra of the stupid, particularly brainwashed Wall Street analysts who, after a decade of increasingly intense monetary intervention, believe “the bad news is really good news, since China slowing more than expected suggests an expectation of further stimulus.”

Wall Street rallies on China data


Perhaps the Dow rose, yet again, on the “good news” that the U.S. government will be illegally operating above its debt ceiling for another 10 days, in the process once again raiding the nation’s pension funds.  Incredible that the debt ceiling was just $14.2 trillion in August, and will shortly be $16.3 trillion, a level already expected to be breached by September.  Boy, that will be a fun campaign issue, huh?


Treasury Resumes Pillaging Retirement Accounts To Fund Deficit Spending Until Debt Ceiling Raised


Or perhaps “investors” were juiced that the initial 50% Greek “haircut” plan is now being proposed at 68%, suggesting Greek debt is worth no more than 32 cents on the dollar.  But don’t worry, the ISDA claims such an event would not be considered a default by CDS holders (LOL).


Bloomberg Reports That Greek Private Creditor Deal Near, At 32 Cent Recovery, According To Hedge Fund Involved


But let’s face it, the PPT can only support the market so much.  The level of “market participation” by non-government computers and HFT algorithms is less than a quarter of the total, but 25% is still a large amount, enough to overwhelm the PPT if fear and/or panic conditions reflective of the true state of the economy were to express itself.  Fortunately for the PPT, expectations of MASSIVE, OVERT QE later this year are growing stronger, for the Fed, ECB, PBOC, BOE, BOJ, and essentially ALL the world’s Central Banks.  Yesterday, I posted an article predicting a €1 trillion LTRO follow-up on February 29th, and today found this expectation – from Credit Suisse, no less – of a €10 trillion LTRO announcement next month!


$10 TRILLION Liquidity Injection Coming? Credit Suisse Hunkers Down Ahead Of The European Endgame


Readers, DO NOT forget the bottom line – plain old, simple MATHEMATICS.  TPTB can – and will – print as many dollars, Euros, pounds, yen, and renminbi as they can, and continue to relentlessly manipulate financial markets the world round.  However, they WILL NOT be able to overcome “Financial Mother Nature” forever, and when she finally passes judgment, the resulting economic catastrophe will be UNPRECEDENTED in human history!


Guest Post: You Can’t Fool Mother Nature For Long: Financial Markets


Wednesday morning, and it looks like it’s going to be an interesting one today.  Per the above news flow, as well as below, it’s hard to make ANY conclusion other than uninterrupted economic contagion, in the U.S., Europe, and the entire world.  As we anxiously await announcement of the PSLV offering size (DETAILS LATER IN THIS RANT!), the Cartel is desperately trying to cap the PAPER markets.  This morning, as usual, the first WATERFALL DECLINE occurred at EXACTLY 3:00 AM EST, but if you notice below, the two-week long resistance at the KEY ROUND NUMBER of $1,650 for gold appears to be turning into support, which as you know I view as very constructive over longer periods of time. 



Oops, as I wrote this sentence, shortly after the COMEX open, gold suddenly WATERFALL DECLINED for no reason, yet again, to $1,648, just to make me look bad.  They really never stop, do they?  So far, we’re 2-for-2 today, with a shot at 4-for-4 for a second straight day!



Notwithstanding such shenanigans, the very KEY ROUND NUMBER of $30.00/oz in silver is also starting to look more like support than resistance, and the PSLV offering is going to make it extremely difficult for the Cartel to break that increasingly staunch price level, especially after December’s ridiculous “OPERATION PM ANNIHILATION II” attack, which took silver an incredible 27% below its 200 DMA while no other markets materially moved.  Today, silver is still 17% below its 200 DMA of roughly $36/oz, and when that level is recaptured I expect the next run to $50/oz. to commence. 


Remember, the single most important catalyst of silver’s move to $50/oz last year was PSLV’s $575 million PHYSICAL purchase in November 2010, not un-coincidentally just days before the commencement of “D-DAY” suppression operations on November 9, 2010.  If Sprott again has difficulty sourcing PSLV’s silver in a reasonable amount of time (it took three months last time), the aforementioned PHYSICAL shortages are likely to receive A LOT of media coverage, the Cartel’s ultimate nightmare.  When $50/oz, the “ULTIMATE TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT” (i.e. 31 years in the making) inevitably occurs, I would not at all be surprised to see a run to the $70-$100/oz range shortly thereafter.


And how’s this for a shocker?  Just a week after my scathing RANT, “ZERO HEDGE SUCKS…YEAH YOU, TYLER DURDEN,” the world’s broadest financial website posted the following article describing Cartel gold and silver suppression, espousing nearly all the key tenets of my theories.  Perhaps Zero Hedge will realize PM suppression occurs every minute of every trading day and, more importantly, that it is the single largest cause of the current global economic collapse.  We’ll see, but better late than never.


Gold & Silver Banker-Cartel Prolonged Price Suppression Has Set the Foundation for an Explosive Move Higher in 2012


BREAKING NEWS, MID-RANT:  The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) deal totaled a whopping $304 million at $13.20/share, with a 15% greenshoe that will likely bring the total to $349 million.  This is a HUGE positive for the “good guys,” which will make it VERY difficult for the “bad guys” to push silver back under $30/ounces for any meaningful period of time! 


Based on rough calculations of how many shares will be outstanding, silver ounces purchased, and their ultimate purchase price, this deal will increase PSLV’s size by roughly 45%, to a market cap of roughly $1.1 billion from $750 million previously.  Moreover, the number of silver ounces held are estimated to increase from 22 million to 33 million, which depending on how many ounces of above-ground silver actually exist in the world (I’ve seen estimates of 600-900 million ounces), would give PSLV ownership of 3%-6% of the GLOBAL TOTAL.  


If these calculations are correct, this deal was priced at a premium to Net Asset Value of roughly 7%-8%, down sharply from the 34% premium it traded at last week but in line with the average premium witnessed on new offerings (of the Sprott and Spicer funds) over the past decade.  I believe this deal will attract still larger pools of institutional capital aiming to PROTECT their portfolios with PSLV’s convertibility into PHYSICAL silver, in turn raising the NAV premium back to double digits in the coming months, and potentially MUCH HIGHER.


This morning, a one-two punch of cataclysmic news emerged, although you’d never know it watching the global PPT control over stock markets.  To start, the shocking edict issued last night by the World Bank, forecasting dramatic economic deterioration and warning developing economies to “prepare for the worst.”  Ho hum, nothing to see here, so long as the Dow is UP.


World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe Is In Recession, Warns Developing Economies To “Prepare For The Worst”


Or how about the IMF announcing it requires an additional $1 trillion of FRESHLY PRINTED MONEY to fund its operations for just two years, the great majority of that money to be sourced from the U.S. and Europe, who themselves require tens of trillions of funding to continue operating.  I mean, can ANYONE truly believe “all’s well” in light of this constant barrage of hideous reality?


IMF Says 2 Year “Funding Gap” Hits $1 Trillion


Or how about the “unexpected rise” in the U.S. core PPI this morning, its largest monthly gain since July 2011, and more importantly, its largest year-over-year gain since 2009.  Lucky for TPTB that, for some unexplained reason, gasoline prices have fallen sharply despite crude oil prices inexorably rising. 


As an oilfield service analyst from 1995-2005, I did not analyze oil prices specifically but worked side by side with those that did.  I learned a fair amount of the dynamics between crude oil and gasoline prices, which are obviously directionally correlated but to varying degrees depending on numerous factors.  In 15 years of observing this relationship, I have NEVER seen what we are observing today, i.e. soaring crude prices and falling gasoline prices. 


I’m guessing it has something to do with the recent decoupling of the Brent/WTIC spread following the debottlenecking of the Cushing oil terminal in Oklahoma, but I cannot be sure.  Irrespective, if crude oil prices continue to rise, it is hard to believe the temporary crude oil/gasoline anomaly will not revert back to its normal, direct relationship, yielding strong upward pressure on gasoline prices, and thus the CPI and PPI inflation statistics.


Oh, by the way, please notice the BLS plans to “change the weightings” within the PPI, as it always does when new methodology is required to fool the public into believing inflation is falling when in fact it is rising.


Core PPI Rises By 0.3%, Highest Y/Y NSA Jump Since June 2009, BLS To Change PPI Weights


And speaking of inflation, which by DEFINITION means increases in the money supply, how much inflation is required by the Fed to MONETIZE the enormous international selling of U.S. Treasury Bonds, per this dramatic headline hot off the press?  Or, for that matter, the dramatic outflow of capital from U.S. equity mutual funds, let alone the dramatic buying surge of PHYSICAL precious metals?


China Brings US Treasury Holdings To One Year Low, Russia Cuts Holdings By 50% In One Year


On to the political front, where as I predicted last week, it looks like the Republican nomination is on the cusp of become a two-man race, as one by one the rabble have been weeded out, leaving just Romney and Ron Paul standing.  As I have said all along, the Wall Street money is clearly in Romney’s camp, as it was with Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004, so it is his race to lose.  In my view, only a dramatic economic collapse in the next six months will give Paul a chance – which certainly might happen -  but otherwise, prepare for this jackass Romney to be President.  Sorry Romney fans, his legacy is no different than the Wall Street scum funding him, the polar opposite of what’s best for America.


Ron Paul Tells Newt, Santorum, Perry ‘It’s Over’ After Trio Fail to Make VA Ballot


And sorry, too, to Bix Weir, who’s Road to Roota theory has vehemently called for a Sarah Palin endorsement of Ron Paul.  Not only did she not endorse Paul, but dissed Romney as well, in favor of the biggest jackass of all, Newt Gingrich.  I love Bix, who agrees with my thoughts on nearly all topics, but believe his theory in this realm to be a bit “out there.”  Of course, I will be thrilled if she reverses course and endorses RP!


Will Newt Gingrich benefit from Sarah Palin endorsement?


And speaking of jackass #1, it appears mega-millionaire Romney (net worth estimated at $250 million), was subject to a measly 15% tax rate in 2011, less than half his calculated tax bracket, as well as that of his secretary.  Don’t you just love America?


Romney Pays Less In Tax Than His Secretary


Not to mention, most of that wealth was amassed in the private equity business buying up companies and liquidating them.  In essence, he worked in the hidden, non-public world of wholesale job-slashing, an “undisclosed version” of Gordon Gekko, so to speak.  Actually, I liken his business more to that of corporate raider Edward Lewis in Pretty Woman, per the video below (which took some time to source, by the way). 

 Scene from Pretty Woman 1990,Business Dinner and Piano Scene

(time stamp 1:15 through 3:15)

All politics aside, is THIS a “man of the people” capable of righting the U.S.S. Titanic?



And one more note on politics before I move on, this time of one of my favorite topics, the 9/11 cover up.  After all these years, the DOD has decided in its great wisdom to grace us with the so-called “missing Pentagon footage” of a plane hitting the building.  A full decade without images from the 25+ Pentagon property cameras, except a few damning frames essentially proving no plane hit the building.


Until now, of course, when some of the most amateurishly doctored video in history magically surfaces.  If you want to see just how stupid TPTB really are, watch this video of a far-from-professional video editor taking apart this fraud, frame by frame.


911 Pentagon Footage Fraud – See the MISSING FOOTAGE!


And before my next topic, it looks like we are now officially 3-for-3 in Cartel attacks today, as gold suddenly decoupled from the Dow / Gold x 2 capping algorithm at EXACTLY 10:00 AM EST and WATERFALL DECLINED for the third time today. 


Given today’s PSLV offering and, subsequently, enormous PHYSICAL silver purchase, the Cartel has been playing DLITG, or “Don’t let it turn green” with GLD all day to calm potential PM excitement, the same tactic I have observed for the past decade.  Not only that, notice how gold was just about to push back above the KEY ROUND NUMBER of $1,650 when it was bombed at EXACTLY 10:00 AM EST.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how the $1,650/oz battle resolves (just surged back to $1,656 as I edit), but given gold’s 200 DMA of $1,634/oz is just below this level, that gold has only traded below its 200 DMA on just 5% of ALL TRADING DAYS over the past decade, and that its fundamentals have NEVER been more bullish, you can be sure which side I’m betting with.



And one more item before I get to today’s RANT topic, which has bothered me for many years.  And that is the unmitigated need of nearly everyone to speak of mankind’s “resilience” and “historical ability to overcome obstacles.”  Of course this is true from a macro standpoint, in that man still lives on this planet, as opposed to being extinct like dinosaurs or dodo birds.  But from a micro standpoint, it is a silly statement made simply to give false hope, or in the case of most, to prevent readers or listeners from fleeing the room in fear and disgust.


I understand that businessman (particularly money managers), politicians, and community leaders need to “sugar coat” unpleasant topics with caveats such as “things are bad, but if we work hard they’ll get better,” but fortunately I, RANTING ANDY, do not have that constraint at Miles Franklin.  Simple MATHEMATICS tells us the financial system will collapse, particularly when no solutions are even being offered (as there are none), just stopgaps to “kick the can down the road,” which incidentally engender one thing, and one thing only – MONEY PRINTING.  More MONEY PRINTING only makes things worse, and I don’t care if humankind evolves into a race of “superheroes” and “messiahs,” it still will not be able to resolve the current financial crisis without a painful, earth-shattering CRASH resulting in mass poverty, social strife, and likely, WAR.


The funny thing is that, per my earlier comments, man tends to be incredibly secular.  Just as Americans believe the world revolves around the U.S., mankind in general believes it has evolved, and is thus smarter than past generations.  Unfortunately, what we are experiencing today is just a repeat of the dozens of times throughout history when self-important, charismatic MEN postulated that a financial system based on FAITH and CREDIT could supersede the only proven system throughout history, one backed by GOLD.


Each instance has ended the same horrific way, with depression, inflation, and WAR, for the same MATHEMATICAL reasons today will end the same way.  Just because we have greater technology, particularly “financial engineering” and the communication and transportation advancements that have enabled a global fiat money standard, doesn’t mean the laws of “Financial Mother Nature” can be repealed.  All such technology has done is make the problem BIGGER and extend its life by a few years, but ultimately “FMN” will get her revenge, proportional to the exponentially larger size of today’s fiat bubble.


“Resilient” or not, the great global dollar experiment is nearly over, and if you haven’t taken preparations for its inevitable collapse, you will likely lose MOST, if not ALL your net worth, and potentially even your life.




Today’s RANT topic is the namesake of the below article, written by David Bond.  He is a long-time newsletter writer from Coeur D’Alene, Idaho, the heart of U.S. silver production and victim to last week’s tragic closure of Hecla Mining’s Lucky Friday silver mine by the U.S. government, due to ongoing safety concerns.  Lucky Friday operated for more than 50 years, produced more than three million ounces in 2010 (nearly 0.5% of global production), and was projected to grow its production levels over the next decade.  After two major accidents in the second half of 2011, including one yielding a fatality, the mine has been closed indefinitely, and more likely, FOREVER.


I do not know David Bond personally, or have an opinion on his work, although I have certainly been aware of his presence for some time.  The article below complains of the “War against us,” suggesting Coeur D’Alene has been targeted by the U.S. government, which is ridiculous.  What the U.S. government is targeting is ANYTHING related to Precious Metals they can get their hands on, specifically PAPER derivatives such as COMEX Futures Contracts, un-backed ETFs such as GLD and SLV, and MINING SHARES.  TPTB know they have already lost the battle for PHYSICAL silver, as evidenced by the enormous demand for Sprott’s PSLV deal this morning.  That is why they will do ANYTHING possible to keep the public out of derivative PM investments, and mining shares such as Hecla (down 20% the day of the announcement) are their top target.


The War Against Us- David Bond – Silver Seek


Once again, I cannot SCREAM loud enough about the risks of holding mining stocks as opposed to PHYSICAL gold and silver, as the latter are irrevocable, irreplaceable, scarce MONEY while the former are simply “paper investments” with limitless supply, escalating risks, and an incredibly poor track record. 


I once owned mining shares offensively due to an expectation of an upcoming “internet mania,” which actually occurred in the PM mining space in the early 1980s, by the way.  But I know now such an occurrence is nearly impossible in the current political and economic environment, which I expect to deteriorate DRAMATICALLY in the coming years.  That is why I now “invest” defensively by holding PHYSICAL gold and silver, NOT SHARES, and sleep well every night.  To demonstrate how successful TPTB have been in their crusade against PM “investments, see the chart below, depicting sentiment toward PM mining shares at LOWER levels than the BOTTOM of Global Meltdown I in early 2009.


The Cartel has targeted MINING SHARES (via naked shorting) with all their might, and if the shares somehow manage a material recovery (they might), it will be into a period when the GOVERNMENT will attack MINING COMPANIES themselves (via windfall taxes, nationalization edicts, etc.), which will ultimately DESTROY the sector, limb from limb.  And by the way, there is no better evidence of my assertion about the Cartel targeting of MINING SHARES than the fact that this indicator literally peaked on “D-DAY,” November 9, 2010, just as bullish sentiment toward PM shares was on the verge of EXPLODING (believe me, I was there!).



Mr. Bond, I am sorry if your life is integrally linked to Coeur D’Alene, Idaho, which incidentally I was lucky enough to visit last year.  However, that was the choice you made, and in the battle with TPTB to PROTECT YOURSELF, living there could prove as much a detriment as the benefit you envisioned.  I left New York in 2007 due to my belief Colorado would be SAFER amidst an environment of economic collapse, and currently I would consider leaving mining boom towns such as Coeur D’Alene and Reno if I lived there, given my belief that GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE into all things mining is likely to exponentially expand in the coming years.


Yes, there is a war going on, by the Cartel to keep the public away from the one sector that can save them, and my view is ANYTHING related to mining companies and/or stocks is at extreme risk.  Though not “fool-proof” (as nothing is), PHYSICAL gold and silver are by far the lowest risk alternative for protecting your net worth and, simultaneously, giving yourself the opportunity to become “wealthy,” which I state in quotes because PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL, NOT WEALTH BUILDING, should be your primary goals amidst the expanding economic conflagration.





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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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