In June, I talked about a pending private placement being offered by
Colorado-based Western Uranium Corp. (WUC:CSE; WSTRF:OTCQX) at $0.68 per
unit (half-warrant at $1.15) and suggested that the deeply discounted market
capitalization/pound of uranium/vanadium was being addressed by way of a
joint venture with Australia-based Battery Metals Resources Ltd. (BMR).
I followed up with an e-mail two days later introducing BMR, which had
just announced a $25 million initial public offering (IPO) with a concurrent
$50 million secondary as a tagalong, with BMO Capital Markets as lead
underwriter. These two e-mails were intended to provide a chance to either
average down on the 2016 $1.70 funding or at the very least initiate new
positions in the deal by way of the $0.68 unit, which was being raised as the
share price cruised along in the $0.85-1.05 range during most of the
marketing period.
Since then, the company has closed over $3.6 million and has completed a
name change to Western Uranium and Vanadium Corp., and has released news
regarding developments surrounding the 5 Mlb vanadium resource contained in
the Sage Mine located in Colorado. WUC entered into a joint venture agreement
with BMR pertaining to the exploitation of the Sage deposit, which was
announced on June 6; it was this announcement that triggered my immediate
interest in revisiting the opportunity after experiencing such dire
disappointment in early 2017. The arrival of an Aussie group that knows
mining and appears eager to advance and exploit the vanadium assets is a
welcome development for WUC, and one that has resulted in my adding an
additional chunk of stock to my portfolio. After participating in 2016 with a
purchase of $1.70 unit deal, I have added triple the dollar amount in the
most recent placement and now have an adjusted cost base of CA$0.80. With the
stock at CA$1.55, a problematic situation has been rectified, with further
developments on the very near horizon enhancing the near-term upside
potential.
Technically, WUC has clawed its way back above the downtrend line from the
$5.00 peak in 2015 and the $2.75 peak in 2017. RSI and MACD are in recovery
mode and volumes are respectable.
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Investing in uranium deals has been a nightmare since the late 2010 top,
north of $75/lb, with all rallies being sold unmercifully and dips rarely
advantaged. Rarely, if ever, treated as "green" energy, the U2O3
stocks have been treated like Japanese whaling ships at a Greenpeace
convention. They are seen as "weaponry" by the masses, as opposed
to the cleanest form of energy on the planet and one which has an extremely
long shelf life. Vanadium stocks, by contrast, are beloved by the electric
vehicle (EV) tribe, with many exploration issues having participated in the
recent price advance.
Vanadium has been the superstar of the battery metals
group, having outperformed lithium, cobalt and graphite since 2015. To
understand the history of industrial applications for the metal, this link
will take you to an excellent article from BBC World News.
Valuation
The company has four main properties, which are estimated to contain a total
estimated resource of 75 million pounds of uranium. In addition, three of the
four properties contain 35 million aggregate pounds of vanadium, with an
implied value of US$647 million. At the current price of $1.55 per WUC share,
the company carries a market capitalization of US$31.6 million, which
represents 4.88% of the in situ metal value (ISMV) of the vanadium alone.
Combining the in situ metal value of the 75 million pounds of uranium (@
US$26/lb) worth US$1.95 billion, you arrive at a combined (uranium and
vanadium) in situ metal value of US$2.475 billion, such that Western Uranium
is trading at 1.27% of the value of all historic resources.
The Opportunity
Most developers in the mining space will carry market caps in the 5-15% range
depending on location (geopolitical and geographic).
Conclusion
When you view Western Uranium and Vanadium Corp. and attempt to conduct the
normal-course due diligence so greatly required in today's world, you are
taken aback by the numbers I have provided above. How can a company with
assets this good be completely ignored by investors? How can an investment
story so compelling be so completely dismissed, from 2015 at CA$5.00 all the
way to CA$0.66 in 2018? The answer lies in management. George Glasier is a
friend of mine and one of the senior statesmen of the North American uranium
industry. He can tell you more about the uranium space than any person I have
met in all of my years in the resource business. However, George operates his
business from a technical perspective, and that includes language the
vast majority of investors do not exactly comprehend. In my discussions with
George, I committed to assist him in the marketing of the WUC story so as to
ensure the maximization of shareholder value by way of the clarification of
exactly how what George does will, in due course, result in a higher share
price. And that is what I am trying to do today. Pretty simple math.
In my 41 years in the investment industry, I learned by way of pain and
suffering that many great investment opportunities arise from the ashes of
the "resistance to promote" by the managers of projects that are
technically sound but either "early" or "late," and WUC
is just one of those opportunities.
If, by chance, the vanadium story is a "late-to-the-party" facet
of the WUC attraction, then the majorasset, uranium, will be the
fallback position because of its unenviable role as a major bear market
disaster story. If the uranium space suddenly ignites, then the aggregate
package is going to be revalued in short order, and it is important that both
assets are strategic assets in terms of U.S. national security and are
therefore integral to the story .
Any way you cut it, if WUC gets carved up as an "asset liquidation
sale" (which it will not), shareholders will receive far greater rewards
than what is being offered today by way of a US$31.8 million quote.
Recommendation: BUY at a US$1.50 limit (CA$2.00)
Target: US$3.40 (6-month); US$6.80 (12-month)
[NLINSERT]
Charts courtesy of Michael Ballanger.
Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of
the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to
be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views
and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always
consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept
no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter.
Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result
in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for
experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be
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recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand
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