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overtheedge
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Gold Outlook for 2016 - Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits

"The U.S. economy should grow faster than other developed economies, ..."

In the real world, growth is mandated by that odd notion that new wealth can only be created by producing something tangible.
This is accomplished by producing commodities and by value-added processing aka manufacturing.
Everything else is taking in one another's laundry.
Service industry is NOT industry. It is just a wealth transfer mechanism that carries a heavy fee in the form of taxation.

So with mining on the downswing, oil profits questionable at best, even marginal agricultural land already in production and no new manufacturing coming on line, any growth can only be measured with the rubber-band known as increased money supply.
Printing more money only decreases the value of the money already in the system and promotes mal-investment.

This mal-investment allows marginal producers to continue stripping sales from previously viable producers which often results in negative earnings and in the end bankruptcy.
Effectively, this financialization of marginal producers results in the devouring of the economy and destruction of older manufacturers.

There are few new markets when the vast majority of consumers are already tapped out on discretionary income.
This leaves only the stripping of consumers from one producer to fund a different producer.
Think of it like the substitution model used for computing the CPI.
Beef prices too, buy pork instead.
US textiles too expensive, buy from SE Asia.
No new production equals NO GROWTH.

Now factor in TTIP and the TPP.
Who benefits?
Only the lower cost producers and for awhile, the consumers.
Consumption is not growth but rather destruction of wealth via monetary transfer, transportation costs and middle-man profits, and subsequent taxation.
The USA is NOT a low cost producer of anything except US dollars.
More USD in circulation, physical and digital, doesn't equate to economic growth.

The price of gold will eventually go up.
But price means nothing, exchange value is the real issue.
The only way gold demand is being currently being filled and with mining production relatively flat is by dis-hoarding.
All too soon, the dis-hoarding will decline. There is only so much in the vaults available for sale at any price.

" The possible recession in the U.S. would strengthen the shiny metal, while the black swan landing in Europe would boost the greenback and drag gold down."
With energy being the highest cost line item in mining's profit/loss book, low energy costs should have resulted in increased profitability and increased growth.
It isn't happening in the gold sector.
Like the old saw, "Past performance is no indication of future performance", so are future predictions based upon old data and former economic conditions.
ALL the current metrics are faulty. Ergo all analytic predictions based upon legacy metrics are suspect at best.
There will be no boost to the USD and never will be.
All comparisons are equivalent to which tomato in the box will rot sooner than the next. All of them are rotting.
The common term is "cleanest dirty shirt". All shirts are dirty and getting more so every day.

Gold is measured by weight and fineness.
Granted, some will always measure it with fiat money which is just a rubber check.
And just where do you suppose that additional gold being sold, over and above current production, is coming from?

Commented 3167 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :The million-dollar question is: what will the price of gold be in the next year? We do not know the exact numbers and we do not pretend that we know the future as other analysts often do (usually the same people, who deny making wrong forecasts). We can say that the precious metals market is quite likely to form its final bottom sometime this year and the exact trading details are and will be covered in our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Within the scope of the fundamental analysis, we can offer... Read More

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