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What Drives the Price of Gold and Silver? - Keith Weiner - keith weiner

An interesting technical indicator is the Bloomberg Commodity Sentiment Gold Bullish index. Since the inception of the survey (April 2004) readings below 30% have marked bearish extremes and contrarian buy signals. Whenever it has moved below 30, gold has historically posted an average return of 21% on a 12-month horizon, with a 100% hit rate. It has also been positive on a 1 wk, 1m, 3m and 6m basis. Today we are at the lowest level in the indicator since Dec 2011, and it is screaming "Buy".

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Beginning of the headline :If there is a credible rumor that the Fed is planning to further extend its "Quantitative Easing", how would you expect the monetary metals to react? Typically, the gold price would rise and the silver price would rise even more. The question is why. Traders read the headlines and they know how the price "should" react to such news, and they begin buying. For a while, the prophecy fulfills itself. But then what happens next? It may take an hour or a month, but sooner or later some of... Read More

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