The US Treasury market topped with our upside Exhaustion Alerts in January
and then found initial support around the weekly moving averages (30-week average
on the long bond and 40- week on the TLT). The bounce was anticipated to provide
a selling opportunity in the TLT in the range of 133 to 135. The rally petered
out at 132.64 and is now breaking down. The major support will now be at the
100-month moving average around 108 on the TLT. This equates to a 2.7% yield
on the 10's and 3.6% on the 30s.
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