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Stock Market Icarus And Glory For Gold

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Published : January 19th, 2022
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Category : Gold and Silver

If a nation of libertarians espousing gold as money can be viewed as the centre of the global politics spectrum, it’s painfully obvious that most of the world’s governments and political parties are far to the left of this mighty marker.

A big part of socialism involves the use of income tax extortion, debt, and printed fiat to operate welfare programs. The worst kind of welfare is of course… welfare for the rich.   

As the vile QE welfare programs are finally ending, the world’s rich (for now) stock market investors are beginning to squirm, but most are still invested and some are “buying the dip”.Why?

Well, since 2008 they have received fresh QE welfare handouts every time there’s been a little hiccup in the market, and they want to believe it will happen again.  

I disagree, and I have a fair amount of experience with the stock market.I bought the 2008 lows with size, bought more at the March 2020 lows, and as of the end of 2021 I have taken about 70%-80% of my stock market holdings off the table.  

As inflation has skyrocketed, some central banks have already raised rates and the Fed is under extreme pressure to do so too.  

While the Fed has cut rates when growth has slowed and markets tumbled, it did so with inflation very tame. That’s not the case now; inflation is anything but tame! The bottom line:

Gullible stock, bond, and real estate investors are living a fantasy that fresh QE welfare is going to be coming from their central bank sugar daddy. They need to wake up and smell the stagflationary coffee.   

(Click on image to enlarge)

QQQ stock market ETF chart

The 10,100 moving averages are on a definitive sell signal, and the head of an H&S top pattern has been completed.

(Click on image to enlarge)

On this long-term chart of the “Q’s”, the situation looks more ominous than many of the stock market charts of 1929.  

A retracement back to the 50 MMA (50-month moving average) would likely showcase the initial drop. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the US stock market is in the final throes of a wave five “super top”, and the ensuing decline is likely to see the Dow ultimately fall to under 7000.

Tactics?

The Blackrock team gets it; inflation is likely to rise and stay high for decades, driven by the move to green energy, the growth of China and India, and the global government obsession with fiat money.

Also, while the focus of most libertarians in the Corona crisis is loss of freedom and questionable vaccines, if there are more variants after Omicron that wreak havoc on global supply chains, I would expect the current official number inflation to double from about 7% to at least 14%. Inflation can steal as much freedom, and more, as that taken by the vaccines and lockdowns. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Investors need exposure to a broad range of commodities, and the PDBC fund could be the best of the bunch. There’s no K1 form needed. Unlike the stock market, current dips are spectacular buying opportunities for “commods”.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Top commodity analysts are calling copper the new oil. As the world “electrifies”, COPX ETF investors could experience a potential ten-bagger event!

During the deflationary period of 2008-2021, stocks and commodities both rallied together on interest rate cuts and QE handouts.  

In the inflationary “bull era” underway now, a divergence is already apparent; commodities are surging as central banks tighten, and Western stock markets are tumbling.

What about gold?

(Click on image to enlarge)

A “big golden bang” obviously occurs above the $2000 area neckline on this long-term chart, but the big money for mining stock investors is made by compounding buy and sell action around key HSR (horizontal support and resistance).

On that note, please see below.

(Click on image to enlarge)

weekly HSR zones chart for gold

$1750 is a minor buy zone and $1835 is a minor sell zone, but the big zones are $1566 and $2089.

The rallies from the previous big zones of $1778 and $1671 are obvious. Investors can expect to produce consistent returns similar to the top hedge fund managers if they focus on buying miners at these major HSR zones for gold… provided they sell them with very fast 20%-30% profits for the intermediate and senior miners, and 50%-100% for the juniors!

(Click on image to enlarge)

HSR zones of action chart for GDXJ

It’s been quiet recently, but the fact of the “get richer matter” is that fabulous buy and sell opportunities happen about once or twice a year in the gold market. Modest patience is all that is required for gold and silver bugs to get richer, consistently.

As 2022 gets underway, stock market investors look like Icarus with melting waxwings. Swing traders are dancing on a yellow brick road. Gold investors who play in the “HSR big leagues” are making the top hedge fund managers look like amateurs. Commodity world “newbies” are taking a serious look at no-K1 funds like PDBC.  

It’s clearly a glorious start to the new year for hardcore “gold is money” enthusiasts around the world, and I’ll dare to suggest that things are poised to get even more glorious in the months ahead!

Thanks!    

Cheers

St

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form, giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.
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