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The long term price chart of the HUI gold stock index in its final wave down

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Bill Downey
Gold Trends
Published : December 19th, 2014
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Category : Market Analysis

Long Term HUI Wave Count

We are in the final 5th wave down of the Gold stock crash. This is one of the two most likely places where we make the “low” for the move. It is the last uptrend line. The 2nd most likely is where it started in 2001. I don’t want to even mention it for fear of you not believing. In an event, the two most likely places for a low is (140-150) and (60-100). While it is the two mostly likely places, it doesn’t mean that the most likely two places will ABSOLUTELY produce the low. They are just the two most likely. We’re at one of them now.


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HUI Continued

From an Elliot Wave standpoint, the real high (orthodox) was in 2007 (seven years of plenty) and from 2008 to 2015 the bear market (seven years of famine). On the way up, the wave 3 had its own 5 waves. Since 2007 we are in an A- B- C bear market. The final wave C has broken into 5 separate waves. The major turn points 2004 – 2008 – 2012 and the upcoming 2016 should complete the cycle.

The ideal time will be near October 2015 (odds). However, it is important to note that all Elliot Wave rules have now been satisfied at a minimum long term level. Wave 5 can bottom at this long term trend line. The problem is that while the wave pattern has been satisfied, on an extreme basis, the HUI can continue lower for another year, and reach as low as 60. Before you laugh, ask yourself, did you think we were going to go back to the 2002 price range? Well, 60-100 is the 2001 range so it’s not as radical as you think.

The bottom line is we are now in the final phase down where a major cycle low is coming due.


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Bill Downey is the editor of www.GoldTrends.net where he monitors the price patterns on an hourly, daily, weekly and monthly basis. He offers commentary on what it all means along with support and resistance levels along the way in advance of each day's trade. If you would like to join for 30 days he offers a free trial. Visit his website home page for details.
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