Donald Trump is about to win the Republican nomination. Moreover, he may do so even if he loses Indiana.
My rationale is Trump is going to pick up a big mass of the Pennsylvania uncommitted delegates, far more than I put in his pocket.
NBC News reports Trump Wins Big Among Pennsylvania’s Unbound Delegates.
NBC News reached out to all 54 delegate winners after the polls closed Tuesday night. Interviews reveal that as of Thursday morning 37 delegates said they intend to support Trump on the first ballot at the convention — a number that could rise north of 40 when the final ten delegates are reached.
In comparison, rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has so far only obtained the support of two delegates and Gov. John Kasich received none.
Eight delegates remain uncommitted to any candidate. They have until the first ballot at the convention to decide their vote (and any of the 54 could technically change their minds any time before that first vote).
Of the 35 delegates who said they’d support Trump, 25 won their election to be delegates Tuesday openly supporting the Republican front runner, reflecting the popular vote results in the state.
At least two outside groups opposed to Trump, Our Principles PAC and NeverTrump PAC had been working to elect anti-Trump delegates.
NeverTrump PAC released an anti-Trump slate of delegates ahead of the vote. Of the 39 endorsements, only four of the delegates with contested races won.
Ridiculous New York Times Headline
Contrast the above headline and analysis with the ridiculous New York Times headline Pennsylvania, Unbound Delegates Remain Wary of Donald Trump.
It appears to me the Times headline should have said, “Pennsylvania, Unbound Delegates Remain Wary of Ted Cruz“.
Mish Math
I estimated Trump would win Indiana, picking up 45 delegates in the process. Let’s instead assume he only wins 4 of 9 legislative districts, picking up a mere 12 delegates in the process.
The 37 votes Trump picked up in Pennsylvania will more than cover the loss.
Trump picked up four more than my original (and unrevised) estimate in New York. Trump also picked up 9 more than my original estimate of 19 in Connecticut.
Note Silver’s original estimate of 71 vs. my estimate of 86 made at the same time. Also note my revision to a Connecticut sweep whereas Silver’s revised estimate was from 19 to 23. The DETERM (deterministic) column represents Silver’s “most likely” assessment.
I did subtract 9 from my California estimate giving Trump a bit of a cushion. With the pickup of 4 in NY and 37 in Pennsylvania, Trump can still win even if he loses Indiana.
My original (and revised) estimates had Trump with 1224 delegates, needing a mere 13 uncommitted delegates. He is going to have at least 37.
Even if Trump loses Indiana, he does not need a miracle finish in California, just a good one and polls are very favorable for that.
If Trump does win Indiana, as I expect, it’s all over.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
