Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench
Gold & Silver Prices in

Updating my trading viewpoints for Silver

IMG Auteur
Published : November 12th, 2012
535 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 2 votes, 1.5/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...

 

 

 

 

As you know, we have been expecting a move on silver to the downside since we called the double top and those that traded that technical pattern walked away with a handsome profit. Much of our guidance has been from the Commitment of Traders Reports which showed that the commercials (inside smart money) was aggressively net short while the large cap speculators were considerably net long.


It turns out my Sunday is going to be extremely busy with a family function so I wanted to get this post up tonight for anyone following along to consider. As always I welcome any commentary or questions.


Both of the charts I use to analyze the COT reports show that while the commercial short positions decreased a tad as did the spec longs, (this should have been expected on that 4% down move we had a week this past Friday) they have not decreased substantially and the charts clearly show that the shorts are still shorter than they were at the March 2012 $37.00 top and the large spec long positions are also still greater than they were at that same time.








So when we look at these two charts, we can deduce that there is a high probability that silver may face another round of selling before these positions clear themselves to the degree that we can confidently go bullish again.


This next chart also shows that silver, up until now has traded in perfect lock-step with the Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, I read some articles indicating that silver had put in a small inverted head and shoulder pattern however, if we do take that potential inverse H&S pattern into consideration then the move from the break of the neckline at $31.76 is complete. The move up from the neckline has surpassed the low at the bottom of the “Head” in that pattern so if you are watching that pattern, in my view, it has now met its required completion. Here’s the chart that show’s how perfectly silver has traded with the fib levels.








By Elliott Wave counts, a move to the 50 day moving average would have been ideal to complete the bounce count but it is not required given that the bounce, according to the Elliott Wave counts has already met the necessary levels to be considered complete.


Therefore, while there may still be some upside potential present (to the 50 day MA), I highly favor the view that this bounce is near or at completion and the high of the day on Friday signalled the end of the bounce. In m view, we should see renewed selling. If the COT Charts did not still flash bearish signals then I would not be taking this view. However given that they do, I can’t with confidence state that this correction is over. A sustained rally or a strong close above the 50 day MA would probably lead me to abandon my short view but for now, I continue to be of the view that we should see a resumed move down as early as the start of next week.


Please read my disclaimer and note that this post is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

 

 



<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :1.5 (2 votes)
>> Next article
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
America Too Broke to Fix Crumbling Infrastructure? “Bridges, Roads,...
20 Febmanfredhumphries2
If you stopped spending so much money on the deep state, military and wars that protect you from nothing and make the world hate America, and stopp...
Alan Greenspan renews gold advocacy, Part 2
20 Febdennyc
Believe it - Greenspan is as dumb as he looks. I'm slightly puzzled as to why the author would use Greenspan as a source for anything. Even a curso...
“That War You Ordered….”
20 FebRosscoe2
Nice comments James If Trump is as mad as everyone says he is , then anything is possible,but I doubt he is and being a tough hombre, he h...
“That War You Ordered….”
19 Febscipionasica3
How splendid to read a clear and lucid article. I am a British citizen living in France and I confirm to you that the illogical nonsense fed to yo...
Alan Greenspan renews gold advocacy, Part 1
18 Febstinger
STFU Greenspan, shut your lie-hole already. When you had a chance to make a difference you sold us out. Nobody gives a chit about...
“That War You Ordered….”
18 Febcomptel
Very good article, except for the unneeded bad language!
Trump Fan John Paulson Cuts GLD Gold Investment as Inflation Hits 5...
15 FebChrisR13
Paulson still owns 4.3 million shares but don't forget GLD allows its biggest holders to redeem for the underlying physical gold but everyone else ...
Yet Another Wall Street 'Witch's Brew'
15 FebDRGEORGE0
I'm not an American but if I had a vote I probably would have voted for DT as the alternative was much worse. My biggest concern about DTs policies...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS