Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench

Updating my trading viewpoints for Silver

IMG Auteur
Published : November 12th, 2012
535 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 2 votes, 1.5/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...

 

 

 

 

As you know, we have been expecting a move on silver to the downside since we called the double top and those that traded that technical pattern walked away with a handsome profit. Much of our guidance has been from the Commitment of Traders Reports which showed that the commercials (inside smart money) was aggressively net short while the large cap speculators were considerably net long.


It turns out my Sunday is going to be extremely busy with a family function so I wanted to get this post up tonight for anyone following along to consider. As always I welcome any commentary or questions.


Both of the charts I use to analyze the COT reports show that while the commercial short positions decreased a tad as did the spec longs, (this should have been expected on that 4% down move we had a week this past Friday) they have not decreased substantially and the charts clearly show that the shorts are still shorter than they were at the March 2012 $37.00 top and the large spec long positions are also still greater than they were at that same time.








So when we look at these two charts, we can deduce that there is a high probability that silver may face another round of selling before these positions clear themselves to the degree that we can confidently go bullish again.


This next chart also shows that silver, up until now has traded in perfect lock-step with the Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, I read some articles indicating that silver had put in a small inverted head and shoulder pattern however, if we do take that potential inverse H&S pattern into consideration then the move from the break of the neckline at $31.76 is complete. The move up from the neckline has surpassed the low at the bottom of the “Head” in that pattern so if you are watching that pattern, in my view, it has now met its required completion. Here’s the chart that show’s how perfectly silver has traded with the fib levels.








By Elliott Wave counts, a move to the 50 day moving average would have been ideal to complete the bounce count but it is not required given that the bounce, according to the Elliott Wave counts has already met the necessary levels to be considered complete.


Therefore, while there may still be some upside potential present (to the 50 day MA), I highly favor the view that this bounce is near or at completion and the high of the day on Friday signalled the end of the bounce. In m view, we should see renewed selling. If the COT Charts did not still flash bearish signals then I would not be taking this view. However given that they do, I can’t with confidence state that this correction is over. A sustained rally or a strong close above the 50 day MA would probably lead me to abandon my short view but for now, I continue to be of the view that we should see a resumed move down as early as the start of next week.


Please read my disclaimer and note that this post is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

 

 



<< Previous article
Rate : Average :1.5 (2 votes)
>> Next article
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Is the gold price manipulated?
28 Julkeith951
... if one takes the dumping of an usually high tonnage of gold at an illiquid time in the gold market aka the Monday one week ago - then such 'b...
Gold Reserves and GDP: China is ...
30 JulWilliam Tan
Shakespeare was right; "The world is a stage." Unfortunately we have all the bad actors acting at once.
Iran Agreement Boosts Peace, Def...
28 Julsonora69
You have a point. The 2003 Iraq invasion is mostly now considered an ill-advised and unjustified destabilization, with regional & political consequ...
Why we should abandon the State
28 Julovertheedge
What a gigantic pile of horse excrement. Cherry pick everything that has gone wrong. Completely discount the hard fact that the author and ...
Iran Agreement Boosts Peace, Def...
26 Julkeith95
How about the US invading Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003 ... leading to the current unrest in the middle east while supporting the 'Saudi's' ......
Take Possession of IRA Metals We...
24 Julericgolub
Internal Revenue Code 4975 language suggests that whether the gold is held directly by the IRA or by an IRA LLC (which is nonetheless still subject...
Gold Miners Nearing Rebound
24 Julsonora69
Silver has already made a 50 cent down and up round trip as of 3:30. This is happening on a Friday, with the stock markets failing to make an advan...
Why Pensions Are A (Big) Black Swan
25 JulS W.1
No (pensions) are not a black swan, which is totally random unforeseen event.
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Mining Company News
Mawson Res.(Au-Ur)MAW.TO
Restarts Drilling at the Palokas Gold Prospect in Finland
CA$ 0.16-5.88%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Goldcorp(Cu-Le-Zn)G.TO
Achieves Record Quarterly Gold Production; Updates 2015 Cost Guidance
CA$ 16.46-1.38%Trend Power :
Production
Claude Resources(Au-Cu-Ngas)CRJ.TO
Provides Date for Q2 Results and Conference Call
CA$ 0.63+5.00%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Richmond Min.(Ur-Au-Gems)RMD.V
- Exploration Update
CA$ 0.09+0.00%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Arianne Phosphate(Ur-Mo-Ti)DAN.V
Extends the Term of Warrants
CA$ 0.86+2.38%Trend Power :
Financings
Anaconda Min.(Au)ANX.TO
Reports 12.83 g/t Gold Over 4.38 Metres and 8.55 g/t Gold Over 4.97 Metres from Channel Sampl
CA$ 0.04-20.00%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Capstone Mining(Ag-Au-Cu)CS.TO
Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results
CA$ 0.90-5.26%Trend Power :
Financials
Taseko(Au-Cu-Mo)TKO.TO
and Soda Creek Indian Band Sign Participation and Cooperation Agreement
CA$ 0.65-2.99%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Tinka Resources(Ag)TK.V
commences 10,000 metre drill program at Ayawilca zinc project, announces new IP results & tar
CA$ 0.18+2.94%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Sandstorm Gold(Cu-Mo-Au)SSL.V
Files Early Warning Report
CA$ 3.13-2.19%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Comments closed