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overtheedge
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America And Oil: This Chart Shows Why OPEC’s Knees Are Trembling

- Wolf Richter -

"But North America as a whole – Mexico, US, and Canada – will likely increase production enough to where imports from OPEC become essentially irrelevant over the next few years."

Assumption 1. NA production increases.
Assumption 2. OPEC no longer can influence world oil pricing.
Assumption 3. World oil demand flattens.
Assumption 4. NA production costs flatten.
Assumption 5. US government doesn't use oil exports for political gain.
Assumption 6. Keystone XL gets built real soon.
Assumption 7. Canada decides exporting crude/refined to SE Asia.
Assumption 8. Mexico decides exporting crude/refined to SE Asia.

How many more assumptions need be put to print to see the logical fallacies embraced by this article?

Oh, and by the way. The House of Saud has always trembled about the possibility that the USA might not come to its military aid to defend Saud from other Middle Eastern oil producers. Remember the first Iraqi war-games in Kuwait? Which leads to ...,
Assumption 9. The Middle East oil producing nations will experience reduced sectarian violence.

Crude oil enjoys world-wide demand. SE Asian oil consumption is increasing.
North American oil production is increasing, but not that much. Production from NA tight oil formations seems to exhibit faster than expected depletion rates.

Which leaves us with ...,
Assumption 10. The US will stabilize the exchange value of the USD.
Remember, one more time, oil has a world-wide demand and will be sold to those countries that avoid currency devaluations and/or pay in valuable commodities.

Now I leave you with ...,
Assumption 11. OPEC production remains constant.
This is the biggy. Oil fields get depleted. Recovery costs increase as depletion occurs. Higher production costs are just added on to the selling price. As prices increase. the customer base shrinks.

Ever notice how it is always those pesky assumptions that make accurate predictions consistently erroneous?

Commented 3654 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :What would have been a demented propagandist’s flight of fancy a decade ago has become reality: For the first time in history, the US imports more oil from our dear and reliable neighbor Canada than from OPEC. With major consequences. Two primary reasons: Rising oil production in Canada; hence, more oil to import. Soaring oil production in the US, hence drastically lower oil imports in general. Their combination has come out of OPEC’s hide. The chart, based on EIA data from January 1993 throug... Read More

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