Gold & Silver Market Morning, February 20 2012

New York took the gold price down to $1,722 but over the weekend, Asia lifted it to $1,732 ahead of London’s opening. London held it at that level and took the euro to €1: $1.3194. In London, gold Fixed at $1,729.50 and in the euro at €1,307.355. The euro was stronger at €1: $1.3265 ahead of New York’s opening. Gold followed the euro stronger ahead of New York moving up to $1,735 and in the euro to €1.308.05.

Silver moved with gold and opened in London at $33.48 almost the same as Friday in London. Ahead of New York’s opening it stood at $33.60.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

Gold will respond to the Greece debt tragedy, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

Silver will move with gold but show a steadier bias, in New York today.

Price Drivers

The gold price is a bit like booze. Alcohol does well when people are happy or unhappy. Its low point is in between the two states. In the developed world we are seeing that in gold demand. In the developing world with three quarters of the globe’s population, times are good. Not the best, but almost so, with more and more people able to save and invest in precious metals each day. That points the way for gold and silver. In the west investors are at the mid-point with demand lower.

We are led to believe that Greece has now done all that has been required of it at government level to warrant the next tranche of bailout money from the E.U. What the Greek government cannot guarantee is that the economic depression it is now in won’t get worse and cut government cash flow back, to ensure it can’t keep its most recent commitments. Tax evasion is a national pastime there and with dreadful consumer conditions now prevailing, the cuts to government income may be even more severe. So while it will get its next bailout tranche on March 20, will it get the next one? We do expect markets to take a positive posture on the Greek situation, despite underlying skepticism. What is really needed in Europe is economic growth that is sustainable. The global economy is showing signs of stress which reduces its economic prospects.

But the markets are likely to respond to the positive aspect of this news and cause the euro to rise again lifting gold and silver. But by how much, will reflect the opinion of global markets on the overall situation, going forward.

Meanwhile Asia looks through its own perspectives, which don’t include Greece. They took it up $10 overnight, but gold remains in a tightening trading range. The market’s view on Greece will dictate the short-term movements in gold and silver, not their long-term moves. [To get more of the right perspectives on the gold and silver markets and where gold and silver prices are going, subscribe through www.GoldForecaster.com or www.SilverForecaster.com].

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters