On August 4th both the Industrials and the Transports closed below their previous
secondary low points. This is the first time since the March 2009 low that
this has occurred and in doing so the primary trend turned bearish in accordance
with Dow theory. Once a primary trend change is established, that primary
trend is considered to be intact until it is authoritatively reversed. In
this case, such a reversal requires a move above the previous secondary high
point, which has not occurred. Initially, it appeared that the August low
had marked a secondary low point. However, with the violation of the August
lows, we are seeing an additional probe into the secondary low points as the
averages fish for these lows. The current Dow theory chart can be found below.
As I have said here since the primary trend change occurred in August, this
development cannot be ignored. But, at the same time, there are also other
technical factors that are not consistent with the Dow theory that can't be
ignored either. It is for this reason that we continue to approach this Dow
theory trend change with caution. Reason being, history shows us that not
all Dow theory trend changes are created equally. For example, as the secular
bull and bear market periods grew, we began to see Dow theory trend changes
occur within the context of the longer-term trend. This was first seen in
1946. This also occurred in 1948, 1951, 1953, 1956, 1960, 1962 and 1965. Sure,
these were important tops in the market, but none of them marked THE top of
the secular bull market. The leading Dow theorist of that time was E. George
Schaefer and he recognized that the secular bull market had stretched in duration.
As a result, Mr. Schaefer explained that he used "other technical studies," outside
of traditional Dow theory, to filter these Dow theory trend changes.
I want to add that during the secular bull market period that ran between
1974 and 2007, there were also a number of traditional Dow theory trend changes.
Such trend changes were seen in 1977, 1981, 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998 and as
it turns out, even the trend change that occurred at the 2000 top proved to
have occurred within the context of the longer-term secular bull market, which
appears to have finally peaked in 2007. Again, these were all important tops.
But, none of them were THE top. Thus, history clearly shows that Dow theory
trend changes are not always ominous nor do they always set the longer-term
trend for the market.
With this all said, my long-term view has NOT changed. I continue to believe
that the rally out of the March 2009 low is a bear market rally that will
ultimately separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term secular bear
market. However, based on other technical studies, which are discussed in
detail in my monthly research letters, this bearish Dow theory trend change
is questionable. In fact, just as Mr. Schaefer used other "technical studies" to
filter the Dow theory trend changes, there is data that suggests this may
well prove to be a very good buying opportunity and that the rally out of
the March 2009 low has not runs its course. If certain structural events were
to occur before the next secondary low point is seen, then such developments
will begin to trump these "other technical studies." Until such time, the
overall technical data suggests that a larger bear trap is likely to be set
before the real decline into the Phase II low takes root.
I have begun doing free market commentary that is available at www.cyclesman.net The
specifics on Dow theory, my statistics, model expectations, and timing are
available through a subscription to Cycles News & Views and the short-term
updates. I have gone back to the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
in 1896 and identified the common traits associated with all major
market tops. Thus, I know with a high degree of probability what this bear
market rally top will look like and how to identify it. These details are
covered in the monthly research letters as it unfolds. I also provide important
turn point analysis using the unique Cycle Turn Indicator on the stock market,
the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, the XAU and more. A subscription
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