Durable Goods Bounce Much Greater Than Expected Led by Autos; Core Capital Weakness

Durable goods orders bounced a much greater than expected 3.4% with autos and aircraft leading the way.

Excluding transportation, the bounce was as expected.

Amidst the strength, core capital goods orders declined 0.8%.

Bloomberg Econoday comments on the durable goods orders.

Highlights

Indications on the factory sector have been mixed as is April’s durable goods report. The headline came in at a stronger-than-expected gain of 3.4 percent with March revised higher to a gain of 1.9 percent. Vehicles orders gave an important boost to April, up 2.9 percent as did the always volatile commercial aircraft component which swung 65 percent higher. But the ex-transportation reading, which excludes vehicles and commercial aircraft, rose a more modest and as-expected 0.4 percent.

A negative in the report is a sizable 0.8 percent decline in core capital goods orders which ominously is the third straight decline for this reading and the fifth out of the last seven reports. Year-on-year, orders are noticeably in the negative column at minus 5.0 percent. These readings point squarely to stubborn weakness in business investment and uncertainty in the general business outlook.

There are, however, solid points of strength in the report including 0.6 percent gains for both total shipments and total unfilled orders. The gain for unfilled orders is the largest since July 2014. Another plus is a 0.2 percent decline in inventories which pulls down the inventory-to-shipments ratio to a leaner 1.65 from 1.67.

Vehicle strength is an important foundation for the factory sector, one tied to domestic consumer demand and a strength that highlights this otherwise mixed report.

Mixed Report

That’s a balanced commentary on a mixed report. There certainly is stubborn weakness in business investment. Companies would rather use cheap financing to buy back shares at insane PE ratios than invest in production.

The word “uncertainty” is overused and ludicrous.

In the Advance Report on durable good, the Census Department does not show an inventory-to-shipments chart.

Here is the chart reflective of the last full report on total business inventories to sales, revised May 13.

Small improvements in the inventory-to-sales ratios are not worth crowing about.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock