Exit Stage Left: China Out of the Gold Market

We have seen the movie before. China has been adding to their “official” gold reserves up to October 2019. Beginning in November 2019 China left the market has not added one ounce to their “official” reserves since. At the end of the day will this matter? We don’t think so, especially, if some of the other nations like Poland, Hungary, India and the like, continue adding to their “official” gold reserves.

China’s gold reserves stood at 62.64 million ounces at the end of January 2020, unchanged from that at the end of December 2019, central bank data showed Friday.

Total value of the gold reserves reached around 99.24 billion U.S. dollars, up from 95.4 billion U.S. dollars by the end of December 2019, according to the People’s Bank of China.

Official data also showed that China’s foreign exchange reserves came in at 3.1155 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of January, increasing by 7.6 billion U.S. dollars, or 0.2 percent from the end of 2019. ~Source

These other nations are not only picking up what China leaves behind, cumulatively, they are picking up a great deal more. As 2020 continues to unfold will we see other nations adding to their stack as they did in 2018 and 2019? Our guess is, if the coronavirus continues to ravage the supply chains other nations may have to make decisions about where to deploy capital. If you need critical daily supplies for your nation to avoid chaos, well, gold may not be the best option. On the other hand, if supply lines are not disrupted we firmly believe the national banks will continue the trend set in 2018 and 2019. We should have some idea by mid July when we have the first half numbers to review. We feel confident Russia and Kazakhstan will continue adding to their stack regardless of what is happening as it is a priority to both nations.

We’ll be taking a look at Russia and Kazakhstan as the coming week unfolds.