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Gold Report ~ Sep 3 2015
Short Term ~Neutral– A close below 1103-1109 would go back to bearish.
Initial Resistance 1134-1137 2nd tier 1147-1153
Support 1115-1122 2nd tier 1107-1112
Our last subscriber update gave support at 1121-1126 and the low since then so far is 1122. Resistance was listed at 1140-1150 and the high since then has been 1147.
We have long discussed the coming liquidity crisis and debt collapse and the action in August warns we are getting much closer to such an event unfolding. This event will take about 4 years to play out.
What we are going to see first is a continued effort by the governments to confiscate as much of your money as possible, to disarm you and to eliminate cash and go to electronic money. During that time public confidence is going to turn against government and as far as gold having its day, it will come during the collapse in confidence and the rise in interest rates.
Gold Short term
The key area to watch is the pivot in the 1115-1122 area. If we lose that support on a closing basis then odds favor we move to either the 1110 area or 1095. Any close below 1109 and we should see prices back under 1100.
Resistance now builds at the 1134-1137 area and 1147-1153. A weekly close above 1149 would favor higher into mid-month towards 1172-1200. A weekly close below 1109 would favor lower into mid-month.
That’s really the short term bottom line………we must hold 1115-1122 or we’re heading towards those lower price points short term. On the upside we need to close back above 1136 and then a weekly above 1148 if the rally is to continue.
 
What next?
IT comes down now to whether the short term cycles do their work. They do 75% of the time, but there is no such indicator that always works. If they play out, gold should rally to mid month and then turn down.
The showdown should be the NFP report on Friday morning as to the short term trend.
Bottom Line
It is not out of the question to say that the gold bottom is in place as we have had a 50% retracement of the entire rally since 1999. But there is still no indication that the TREND on a medium term basis has turned up. Its best to remain cautious, and to continue to believe that the downtrend in gold is not yet complete.
September is a transitory month and it has been the killer month for gold since 2011. If we are still in a bear market gold could very well turn down again this month.
We need a weekly close above 1148 in order to favor higher prices towards 1172-1200. Until then, proceed with caution.
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