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It appears ever since the worlds top money managers, crony
capitalists, and corrupt politicians were in Davos again for the annual World
Economic Forum increasing numbers are catching on to the fact the big
risk moving forward is likely to be currency
wars, which unfortunately most common people will not
understand. They dont understand the term currency
wars is plutocratic double speak for currency
debasement wars, more often referred to as money printing. (i.e. which is price inflationary and the authorities chief
mechanism for wealth confiscation.) Such jargon is considered boorish by the high
and mighty who continue to perpetuate our Ponzi finance fraud,
loosely considered an economy by those who continue to benefit from it, the
ranks of which growing more scarce by the day. (i.e.
Keynesian Economics
does not work.)
Because most also do not understand that the worlds
larger credit bubble must grow or
its all over for Western fiat currency
based Globalism, along with
the jobs of many that attended in Davos in step, as the ultimate bubble, the fraud bubble,
would be popped once living standards for the masses deteriorates
sufficiently. (i.e. think revolution.) But first we
will see events accelerate in these currency wars
this modern day version of world war. Again, the term currency
wars simply means that countries are accelerating competitive currency debasement
policies designed to boost exports in what is referred to
the race to the bottom,
which is the logical progression in a mature global capitalist cycle,
with our present state being very mature.
All this money printing will lead to accelerating inflation (some
degree of hyperinflation)
eventually as well of course, however central
planners have been lucky so far because of inefficiencies associated with
rising unemployment that will not save them forever. Along this line of
thinking, you should know this is coming, and its
likely coming sooner than even the pessimists think and
it will affect you with rapidly rising prices. Because currency debasement
wars dont work for
long they just make it look like politicians are
attempting serve your interests, when in reality they serve only their own by
justifying their jobs.
And there is no group of bureaucrats better at this
kind of thing than the Boys From Brazil of live in the Beltway,
although to be sure things are heating up all
over the world in this respect, with the big story being Japan.
These guys continue to sell Americans down the river no matter what the
cost, using ridiculous forecasts, loose-headed ideology,
and feelings of euphoria to
both distract and convince a still complacent constituency they are on the
job. Of course things are steadily getting worse,
with most Americans caught in a debt trap,
and government approaching insolvency. Its
all an illusion you see, and pretty soon Americans will be forced to
recognize that the party is over, and in addition to foreigners declaring war
on you, one must also worry about Washington
because its war. (i.e. and now they
are talking about coming for your retirement accounts.)
States are realizing this increasingly now, which is why talk of cessation is spreading.
This will surprise many. However what would be an even bigger surprise is if
the dollar($) takes off to the upside, which would
put Americans in a losing position in
the larger currency war. Such an outcome would signal a
another round of accelerated deleveraging was taking place on a global
basis, which as you know from our cycle work, is on track to grip
macro-conditions as we head into next year. So, youve got complacency right now while
Da Boyz in New York, London, wherever, can still manage to squeeze stocks
higher, however if historical patterns are
any indication, this is set to end at some point later this year.
How could such an outcome occur with the Fed (and friends) all
printing money like there is no tomorrow? Answer: Diminishing returns.
This is when the game of musical chairs a la rotating currency devaluations
becomes redundant. And the trigger will come out of left field, from places
you are not expecting, like Canada. Right now Canada is in the midst of a stealth meltdown
with the popping of its real estate bubble
that should be better reflected in the financial markets at some point. You
may remember if following my work for some time the significance of the Dow /
TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) Ratio, where a break above 2008 highs would
signal the next global credit crisis, this time with Canada unable to escape
its wrath in spite of supposedly conservative banks. (See Figure 1)
Figure 1
And of course Canada is not the only one feeling the pinch right now
(other examples are here and
here),
however its the most prominent because not
only have the talking heads used relative strength here as an indicator for
the inflation trade, the implications of an economic crash would reach around
the world due to its perceived safety
factor (especially its banks), and its
role in global commodity markets. Yes, this would be the signal the global credit bubble is
in serious trouble this time if Canadas bubbles are bursting too. In
terms of the stock market, but switching back to US measures, little doubt we
are indeed very close to top, seen here and
here and
here,
along with those measures familiar to us, pictured below. (See Figure
2)
Figure 2
As you can see above, it appears the mania in stocks has never left
us, opening the possibility of a double top in risk adjusted stocks before
present bubble conditions pop. Along this line of thinking, you should know
that one more day like we had last Friday will put the NASDAQ / NASDAQ
Volatility Index (VXN) Ratio at the best fit
Fibonacci Resonance related target discussed just last week, which would
increase the probability of a Bradley Model top at this time considerably.
The last thing the bulls want to see is the stock market continuing higher in
February and putting in an apparent top prior to the 24th. (i.e. think Bradley Model Top.) Such
an outcome could mean all the bull markets credits might
be spent. (See Figure 3)
Figure 3
Other than that, and as can be seen in the redrawn monthly CBOE Volatility
Index (VIX), financial repression could continue on well into this year
before the triangle apex is approached. Whats more, we also
know money supply measures
remain constructive; given diminishing returns
could be a factor here. So in reality there is still no telling what will
happen for the balance of 2013 other than at some point a top in stocks
(equities) will occur, and it will be a biggie. This must be the chart that
Simon Potter is using no? (See Figure 4)
Figure 4
Which brings us to precious metals, and the big question are
you willing to run the gauntlet (take big risk) in order to invest in
precious metals as we form an important top in stocks
wondering will it be different this time? Because investing
in precious metals the last two times we had liquidity events (think 2000 and
2008) were bad ideas in the first year of such embroil to
be sure. Along this line of thinking, if you are a long-term investor, isnt it better to wait for the
liquidity event to run its course and then buy in a year or so later? History
suggests the answer to this question is an unequivocal yes.
The question then arises however, are we indeed in the early stages of
another liquidity event? As you should know from reading these pages
(including Daves Contracting Fibonacci Spiral work), the answer to
this question is yet another unequivocal yes,
however we are not quite at the point where increasing illiquidity should
negatively impact precious metals. You would never know this with sluggish
performance in the group for some time thanks in large part to vulgarities
associated with official price management, however again, this may be set to
change, allowing for a run to new highs before deteriorating liquidity
conditions negatively affect nominal pricing.
Why would this occur now, after all this time? Answer: Because
gamblers in the aggressive paper derivatives market(s) are beginning to show
capitulation regarding their permanently bullish dispositions. This is
reflected in now rising open interest put / call ratios amongst the largest
producers listed here in the HUI components,
where as you can see here in updated charts,
56.91% of them (most notably the top four) now show their ratios trending
higher across two-year plots. And again, if the broads remain buoyant, which
as you can see in the attached ratios of relevant US indexes above is likely
with rising values as long side players increasingly hedge positions (they
hedge instead of selling, which will eventually crash stocks), this would
allow for precious metals to run higher before liquidity conditions become a
limiting factor.
This is the theory anyway, where we will hopefully see some positive
results over the next two weeks, a shortened options cycle for the
derivatives markets of the key indexes and ETFs we follow. A
fly in the ointment could be a more buoyant broad market that sucks up
available energy (liquidity) away from precious metals, where the transports
are likely to keep bulls optimistic because the squeeze is definitely not
over in this market based on the new shorts going on the Dow Transports ETF (IYT)
(think Dow Theory followers); however, February should still be a challenging
month for the broads considering overbought conditions (not too mention the Sequester),
which in turn would allow for gold and silver to run.
Whats more, and in referring to our risk (volatility)
adjusted index plots pictured above, it should be noted that although slow in
transitioning, precious metals actually thrive in periods of initial
increasing volatility (because its perceived money supply growth
rates will need to be ratcheted higher), which are those periods directly
following peaks in these measures. So, as you can see by examining the SPX /
VIX and NASDAQ / VXN plots provided above, we are likely very close to such
peaks, and in the early stages of such conditions. So, although the risks are
rising, dont give up on precious metals like just about
everybody else out there.
Growth of the Feds Balance Sheet
alone should be enough to keep you bullish; but if thats
not enough, perhaps martial law,
which FEMA itself is predicting could be here as early as this summer;
or, war between China and Japan, will be enough to finally spark panic buying
of precious metals. Who knows but what you should know is you
are involved in all these wars; either directly or indirectly, and that your
own increasingly fascist government is the biggest threat to your financial
well-being.
So, make sure you do all you can to protect your wealth before its
too late. Precious metals are by far the preferred method, and will not
remain cheap forever. In effect the suppression of gold and silver have made
them a solvency play, meaning they are must have' assets. The road to
riches (in this case survival) can be a rocky one
however. With a little luck though, precious metals shares might be able to
get rolling over the next few weeks, where one should be watching the metrics
discussed in this regard last week for
clues.
Good investing all.
Copyright © 2013
treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.
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