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Two years ago, Martijn went through roughly 1,200
days-worth of the regular USAGOLD discussion forum and compiled (most of *)
the intermittent comments by ANOTHER and FOA, along with a few others, into a
436 page pdf. That pdf is
available for download on Scribd here.
But lately, the discussion forum archive on the USAGOLD website appears to be
MIA. ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) and The Gold Trail are still there, but not the
regular forum. All we have at the moment is Martijn's
pdf which is not covered when JR searches for
applicable quotes on Google.
So I put those 436 pages of comments into two (search engine-friendly) pages
linked in the side bar right under FOA. Blogger couldn't handle 436 pages in
one post, but it was fine with 218 (my new post length limit ;). That's why I
had to split it into A/FOA Discussion Forums 1 and 2. It still needs work (I'll
clean up some of the spacing and other errors left over from the pdf conversion as time permits), but all of the text is
there.
There are some great posts in these archives. For example, my 2010 post FOA on
Hyperinflation
came entirely from the discussion forum, as did FOA to Martin
Armstrong.
Here's another good teaser for what you'll find in these archives. It's a
post I happened across just the other day when Michael H posted it somewhere
else (thx Michael H!):
FOA
(10/14/99; 9:20:06MDT - Msg ID:16318)
Comment
Strad Master (10/12/99; 23:48:43MDT - Msg ID:16216)
---- My first question, though, is this: If gold should rise to, say, $30,000
per oz as FOA predicts, how, at that time could
one's gold holdings be unwound? For what? $30,000 in paper money? Or would
the actual gold bullion become the only negotiable currency? If so, what good
would a one oz. bullion coin be? It can't be cut apart into small pieces with
a pair of garden shears. Beyond that, Goldbugs are
notorious for holding onto their physical holdings long past the time of
maximum return. ----
(((NOTE: Strand: I find it interesting that goldbugs
have become "notorious" for bad moves when their present universe
has only existed some 20 years? and the lady has not sang the song yet?)))
You continue:
---In fact, I'm sure that some older people who post at this forum have held
gold through several (albeit relatively minor by comparison) upmoves in gold only to kick themselves for not having
sold at or near the top.----
(((Note: I know people that have been buying through this entire span of
time! True, they have timed their buying on a cost averaging basis, but that
concept has made them almost even today. In the believe it or not department.
Ask MK about "cost averaging" using a fixed dollar amount. Then I
suggest you see the show "Rollover" with Jane Fonda. You would not
believe how true it is!)))
Hello Strad,
I'm going to ramble on a bit, so I hope this helps your perspective.
Back in the early oil days I was very close to some of the largest oil men in
the country. When in Texas we would visit at the country club and shared a
lot of our perceptions. Usually over a poker table. Looking back, I find
their (and mine) viewpoints had much in common with the gold outlook today.
When oil went from around $3.00 to $5.00 everyone that had local reserves
thought they had made a fortune. You wouldn't believe how many sold off not
only their storage barrels but their best (lowest cost production) reserves
for cash. The feeling was that oil had just zoomed in price and would quickly
go back down. The percentage gain on those leveraged assets was simply huge.
Then oil went up to around $8.00! Good god, we were so stupid to have sold.
What a bunch of buying fools out there. Those idiots buying $8 are going to
get killed. Everybody knows the major producers can pump for $1.00. Oh well,
it just a political thing.
When oil hit $15, some of them knew they had missed out on a train to $20.
But they still thought oil would one day return to around $5.00. So as not to
miss out completely many of the early sellers jumped on the Natural Gas wagon,
using everything they had gained from their first sale. At first this new
move made money, big time. Then something funny happened, oil soared and
later returned to a more normal $18 to $25 range, but gas plunged from the
higher supplies. The "oil boys" turned "gas boys" lost it
all. Even into today, gas has never returned.
Truly, they used the silver vs gold concept,
thinking the more leveraged natural gas would out run oil and regain their
fortunes. It made sense as gas (like silver) was more industrially useful and
"CHEAPER". You might even say it was the "poor man's oil"
(smile)! Also: Just like silver, gas proved to exist in much larger amounts
that the "statistics" demonstrated. As its price "coat
tailed" oil, it brought out the massive increase in production that
wasn't needed as long as oil was available. Incredibly, this was the exact
same story for silver. All the stories about people buying silver as gold
went up saw them sell the silver and keep the gold because people just didn't
need both of them. The same will happen when gold runs this time. People will
keep the high unit cost gold in their vaults, use the digital currencies for
trade and sell the silver as it floods out of the woodwork.
Onward:
You see, oil in the early 70s is like seeing the
prevalent gold concept today. The perception was that oil could never go up
from the $1.00 production range into the $20s (just an unimaginable increase
to those in the business) because such a price would flood the world with
production. It was thought that there was so much unfound oil in the world
that every home owner would have an oil drilling rig in their back yard at
$20+. Just as $10,000 gold will have people taking gold from sea water.
Here is where reality gets in the way of concept based on perceived
conditions. Yes, the $20 and $30 oil did bring out the rigs and production
soared. But, even at the higher prices, the world found uses for this great
new gusher of oil. The same human traits that dictate that "you can
never have enough money in the bank" also said "we can never use
too much oil"! If all the oil reserves in the world could produce at
$2.00 then the price would return to $2 plus a profit. But, we want and use
all oil produced from fields that pump from $2 cost on up to $30. Gold and
oil are not like any other commodity, because under the right circumstances,
people find both of their qualities useful and can never get enough of them
at any price. It seems we accumulate assets until we die?!
The "paper boys" try and paint a picture of gold like "old oil
men" looked at values "back then". They were wrong and so are
the "paper boys" today. The Smiths and Arnolds of the world try to
convince us that the supply of gold is never used up and creates a glut as it
grows. They say that unlike oil that is consumed, gold holdings have become a
stockpile that refining cannot use up. I bet these guys would have also sold
their oil reserves in the mid 70s also.
Where they miss the boat is in their assumption that people will get enough
gold. Not if it's money, they won't! People do consume money just like oil, rather it's just in the form of "savings
consumption". Gold, just like money has an "unlimited demand".
Again, have you ever seen anyone that said "I have too much money and
have no more use for it". "No, don't give
me any more of that cash, I've got a glut of it now,
go away"! Yea, right!
Often, we read where people say, "oh what am I to do with all this gold
if it hits, $30,000?".
Funny how Bill Gates never says "what am I to do with all these MS
shares". Well, you too will act like anyone with too much cash or
assets, just stash it away until you need to spend it. The old "what
will I do with all this high priced gold I can't get change for" logic
just doesn't compute when dealing in reality? Ever see someone in a flea
market rolling around a cart full of $100 bills,,,and frantically trying to unload it because it
buys so much and they can't get change? Help me out here, am I not seeing
something?
I'm afraid that even the very poorest of people have a better grasp of
spending and saving value than some of the "big time investors"
present about gold. (I'm talking about the brokers, Strand)
Onward:
Anyway: The amounts of gold in vaults today is nowhere near enough to
represent the only circulating world money. It would have to be priced at
$++++++ to do that. So, if mine production can continue, the world will take
any and all they can produce. Be it 3,000 ton a year or 10,000 a year because
the demand for money (even a parallel supplement
money) is unlimited. Personally, I would take all of it (smile) and let the
rest of you keep the paper.
The reality of this is that people hold cash in banks as it is lent out and
earns interest. If no one lent their cash and just saved it (like gold) to
spend in later years, it would take an enormous amount of paper money. This
is why the US goes to great lengths to identify gold to the public as a
commodity, not money. They want you to know that it must be sold as soon as
it goes up. Trade it, don't save it. Most Western investors have bought into
this and are going to pay dearly because of it. Again money demand is
"unlimited". The same will be true for gold. As people begin to buy
gold as a currency supplement, to be spent "as needed", the price
could reach enormous levels.....and be seen just like oil......a useful asset
you just can't get enough of.
On the road... ...FOA
As I say, these pages still need some work. So if you want to just sit back
and read these archives, I recommend downloading the pdf.
And if anyone wants to help with formatting these pages, let me know.
Sincerely,
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