How the losses are being paid for...
IT USED TO
BE taken
for granted that you could put aside some money and earn enough interest
to be better off than when you
started.
As the world
continues to struggle with the aftermath
of an enormous credit
boom and its subsequent bust, though, this kind of objective seems hopelessly naïve.
Events in Europe and the US this week are the latest reminder of this. To see why, let's
start with a riddle:
If I owe you €10,000, and the amount of money I have is zero, is it
possible to let me off the hook without
you taking a loss?
The question
is rather silly, yet it
is analogous to the one facing policymakers in Europe
right now as they decide what to do about Greece.
Here's the problem in a nutshell: Greece was tasked with
reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio to a 'sustainable'
120% by 2020 (by complete coincidence
the ratio for the Eurozone's biggest
debtor Italy at the time the target was set last year). That wasn't not enough time, Euro politicians decided last week, so they
extended the deadline to 2022.
Christine
Lagarde, managing director
at the International Monetary
Fund, was not happy about this. She would
rather see the deadline stay as 2020, with the debt being reduced
directly by further write downs. Germany and other Euro members are averse
to this since it would impose further losses on creditors. Private sector Greek bondholders were burned back in February, compelled to take losses as part of a restructuring
deal.
A further write down might also hit the European Central Bank, which
has already agreed to forego profits on its Greek bonds. If the ECB takes actual losses, would this not amount to central bank financing of government debt – something prohibited by European treaty? According to Germany, it would.
So we have a problem where a debtor cannot pay and creditors don't want to take a hit (and in the
case of the ECB may not legally
do so, many argue). Naturally the first maneuver is to give the debtor a bit more time, which is exactly what
Eurozone politicians did last week.
This will only achieve
so much though. The latest figures show
the Greek economy is still contracting;
policymakers will have to
buy an awful lot of time
if Greece is to pay down the debt through economic growth alone.
So what else can
be done? This is where the people at the top are yet to reach agreement. One of the suggestions doing the rounds is to lower the interest rate Greece pays on its bailout loans, a classic move to lower the real,
inflation-adjusted value of debt.
Just ask Ben Bernanke. In a speech given this week
the Federal Reserve chairman reiterated
the need to maintain loose monetary policy for the foreseeable
future.
"A highly accommodative stance of monetary
policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens," he said.
Bernanke also repeated his call for US lawmakers to sort out the deficit,
arguing that monetary policy can only provide
a supportive environment;
it cannot solve fiscal problems. Not the Bernanke is a deficit hawk:
"Even as fiscal policymakers address the urgent issue of longer-run
fiscal sustainability," Bernanke
said, "they should not ignore a second key objective: to avoid unnecessarily adding to the headwinds that are already holding back
the economic recovery."
In other words, the US government should maintain borrowing near record levels, while also trying
to get borrowing onto that sustainable path.
It's a tricky balance, but Bernanke seems confident America's politicians can pull it off:
"Fortunately, the two objectives
are fully compatible and mutually
reinforcing. Preventing a
sudden and severe
contraction in fiscal policy early
next year will support the transition of the economy
back to full employment; a
stronger economy will in turn reduce the deficit and contribute to achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. At the same time, a credible plan to put the federal
budget on a path that will be sustainable
in the long run could
help keep longer-term interest rates low and boost household and business
confidence, thereby supporting
economic growth today."
He may be proven
right. But whether he is or not, that
"accommodative" policy of below-inflation interest rates is here to stay.
That should give continued
support to the gold price. The chart
below is from a presentation by Charlie
Morris, head of global asset
management at HSBC, given
at last week's London Bullion Market Association annual conference:
Morris
points out that when the annual real rate of interest
(i.e. how much you make adjusted for inflation)
has been below 2%, gold has tended
to do well:
Many investors today would be
happy with a real return of flat zero – at least they wouldn't be losing ground.
As the world
grapples with the plight of sovereign debtors, though, the idea of getting a reliable real return from an investment is sadly starting to seem rather out-of-date.
Moody's downgraded France this
week; here's one of the reasons it gave in its ratings rationale:
"...unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does
not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption."
In other words, if France could just print
what it owes, it could
probably still be rated triple-A. Creditors would get back the money they lent
out, and there would only be the small
matter of it being worth a lot less than when
they lent it.
That is today's reality. It may be unavoidable
given the sheer size of
the debt problems affecting much of the globe;
but it's a pretty raw deal for those trying to grow or even hang onto the value of their savings.
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