In a recent GMO commentary on Immigration and Brexit, founder Jeremy Grantham laid out
precise reasons why Brexit was a mathematical certainty eventually.
Curiously, Grantham thinks Brexit was a bad idea.
On the second sentence, I disagree strongly.
The following snips, including bullet points are from Grantham. Subtitles
are mine, not his.
Europe’s Impossible Refugee Math
- The truth about immigration to the EU, in my view, is
bitter. As covered in earlier
quarterlies, I believe Africa and parts of the Near East are beginning
to fail as
civilized states.
- They are failing under the pressure of populations that
have multiplied by 5 to 10
times since I was born; climate for growing food that is deteriorating
at an accelerating rate; degraded soils; insufficient unpolluted water;
bad governance; and lack of infrastructure. Country after country is
tilting into rolling failure.
- This is producing in these failing states increasing
numbers of desperate people, mainly young men, willing to risk money and
their lives to attempt an entry into the EU.
- For the best example of the non-compute intractability
of this problem, consider
Nigeria. It had 21 million people when I was born and now has 187
million. In a
recent poll, 40% of Nigerians (75 million) said they would like to
emigrate, mostly to the UK (population 64 million). Difficult. But the
official UN estimate for Nigeria’s population in 2100 is over 800
million! (They still have a fertility rate of six children per woman.)
Without discussing the likelihood of ever reaching 800 million, I
suspect you will understand the problem at hand. Impossible.
- I wrote two years ago that this immigration pressure
would stress Europe and that the first victim would be Western Europe’s
liberal traditions. Well, this is happening in real time as they say,
far faster than I expected. It will only get worse as hundreds of
thousands of refugees become millions.
- The EU and Europe may support a few years of increasing
numbers of these failing state refugees, but that is all. They will
fairly quickly have to refuse to take even legitimately distressed
refugees. The alternative – to take all comers – would likely be not
just a failed EU, but a failing Europe.
Brexit Unnecessary?
- Calling for an utterly unnecessary referendum by the
Prime Minister for superficial
and short-term political gain. He could have muddled through anyway.
Referenda
are dangerous. They allow for the true will of the people to be voiced,
informed or
ill-informed, manipulated or not. Dangerous. As Churchill said (now much
quoted), “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute
conversation with the average voter.” He might also have commented about
the willful laziness of the one-third who never vote.
- The UK press, the most egregiously editorialized in the
developed world. The broad circulation papers goaded and badgered their
readers toward Brexit.
- As for the politicians, forget it. Whimsical theories,
back-stabbing disloyalties, a glaring lack of planning and foresight.
Above all, completely ignoring the precautionary principle, playing with
fire like children. Now those Brexiters that haven’t run away can reap
what they have sown, as unfortunately will the whole UK. If you will,
the pack of dogs can now try to work out what to do with that darned
car.
Mish Comments
In absence of prior knowledge, I would suspect few would think the same
person wrote both snips.
Given the math laid out in the first snip, and given the total
stubbornness of chancellor Merkel, it was both a mathematical necessity and
pragmatic result for the UK to leave the EU.
Politicians are Dangerous
Grantham’s statement that “Referenda are dangerous” is no
different that saying “elections are dangerous“.
Since when are politicians guaranteed to be saviors?
A few dangerous leaders come to mind. George Bush and his ludicrous war in
Iraq is a prime example. Lyndon B. Johnson and his idiotic war in Vietnam is
another.
Questions for Grantham
- Given a referendum on the idea of a war in Iraq, and a
genuine estimate of its true cost, would US citizens have voted for war
in Iraq?
- Would the UK have voted to follow Bush in a “coalition
of the willing”?
- Would US citizens have voted to carpet bomb Vietnam?
- Would European voters approved a pact with Erdogan to
allow visa-free access to the rest of Europe to 80 million Turks?
Politicians are and their pet goals are far more dangerous than
referendums. Chancellor Merkel and her inane, mathematically impossible, open
arms welcome of refugees was the #1 Reason UK Voted Leave the EU.
Let’s not blame the voters or the referendum itself.
For more on this subject, please see Dear
chancellor Merkel: When does Turkey join the EU? When do 80 million Turks have
visa-free travel?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
