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Gold ~ Trends
Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral/bearish– The failure on gold’s part to close above the moving lower Price potential.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need a close back above 1222 for neutral.
Short Term ~ Bearish-
Initial Resistance 1206-1212 2nd tier 1216-1226
Initial Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1155-1162
The last update listed resistance at 1198-1208 and the high was 1209. Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1183.
We are having massive problems with the website. Ever since the last upgrade it gets worse and worse. We were not able to post the weekly and daily gold yesterday until the wee hours of the morning. We spend a lot of hours working it. Almost 15 hours in total on Sunday.
Today on the intraday----we gave up after spending over 2 hours after the report was finished just trying to publish. On Monday evening we couldn’t even get to the website. We got a note out to folks earlier tonight on the issues via email. Even that was a choir. The same thing is going on with this report tonight. In desperation, we are giving as much lee-way as possible for the vendor to fix the issues as a change of vendors would be costly and very time consuming. That you for your patience----I know that mine has practically run out.
Back to the Update...
We noted in the weekly report last night that the US dollar was at major medium to long term resistance li
We also noted that the ODDS WERE VERY HIGH THAT THE METALS MAKE A BOTTOM ON THIS SHORT TERM CYCLE DUE Oct 8th (plus or minus 2 weeks). We also mentioned that the medium term cycles were in the last week of its window and odds were high there also of a turn.
Silver Soars As The Dollar Dumps Most In A Year; Stocks Surrender Payrolls Gains
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 16:05
Following Friday's post-PAYROLLS exuberance, the US DOLLAR crashed by the most in over a year today and stocks retraced most of their gains with only European data (weak) to base any momentum ignition on. Today's stock weakness turning point coincided with the BANKRUPTCY headlines of GTAT but the divergence to USDJPY and bonds set the scene for STOCKS' demise. Trannies were today's laggard (after leading Friday) along with small-caps as The Dow clung to 17,000 and S&P closed marginally red. EUR strength led USD weaker and the plunge accelerated into the US close (eradicating all payrolls gains). USD weakness sparked commodity strength as gold (up most in 3 months), copper, and oil all rose and silver surged 3% (most in 4 months). VIX rose 0.8 to 15.3 as stocks closed ugly (not "off the lows" for Trannies and Russell) with a flush in FINANCIALS.
The weekly update published on Sunday said that we are building up into a global liquidity crisis. The article below is about a liquidity crisis. Granted its only one company, but it’s the repercussions which bears focus on the news. They are blaming their bankruptcy on LIQUIDITY CRISIS.
The Reason For GT Advanced Technologies Shocking Bankruptcy: "Severe Liquidity Crisis"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 15:37
EVENTS LEADING TO CHAPTER 11
GTAT is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to circumstances that will be MORE fully described at the hearing on the First Day Pleadings.
Gross PIMCO Exit Sparks Record Liquidations In Short-End Of Yield Curve
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 15:15
It appears wherever one looks in the MARKETS there are the skidmarks of PIMCO adjusting to life after Bill Gross. First it was MBS (and related derivatives), then CDS indices adjusted as redemption expectations raised risk premia, and now it is the short-end of the Treasury curve. As The FT notes, 3-month Eurodollar futures (instruments enabling TRADERS to bet on the front-end of the yield curve and thus more accurately pinpoint their bets on Fed actions) saw ASSET MANAGERS (cough PIMCO cough) liquidate a record 868,853 contracts in the week to September 30 – the largest one-week change on record (each contract has a notional value of $1m). This dramatic shift suggests both a disagreement with Gross' "new normal" view of rates lower for longer (since liquidation is concentrated around the 2-year maturities) and a need to meet liquidity requirements from redemption requests.
Spanish Ebola-Infected Nurse Is First Case Of Contagion Out Of Africa; Salzburg Activates Ebola Emergency Response Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 14:47
By now it should be clear to everyone that any myth that the Ebola epidemic, which has clearly gone global, is contained is about as real as the S&P 500 at 2000. And if it isn't, the latest confirmation came moments ago from BBC which reports that a Spanish nurse who treated an Ebola victim in Madrid has contracted the virus herself in the first case of contagion outside Africa, HEALTH officials say. What is different about this case is that the nurse contracted the virus in Madrid while she was part of the team that treated Spanish priest Manuel Garcia Viejo, who died of Ebola on 25 September, despite being treated with the same drug regiment that previous is said to have worked on US Ebola patients.
Large Explosion At Iran Nuclear Site Kills Two Amid Speculation Of Another Israeli Sabotage Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 14:31
A large explosion took place near a suspected nuclear site in Iran has reportedly killed two PEOPLE and according to the Washington Free Beacon, prompted SPECULATION of sabotage at a military site long suspected of housing Tehran’s clandestine nuclear activities, according to Iran’s Defense Industries Organization (DIO), which operates under the country’s Ministry of Defense. The Free Beacon, citing Fars New Agency, reports that one explosion rocked a production plant late Sunday night in east Tehran, near the Parchin nuclear site. The explosion at a facility referred to as a “production plant” caused a fire that killed two workers, according to Fars, which cited information provided by Iran’s DIO. Fars first reported news of the explosion, claiming that it took place at an “explosive material factory” near Parchin. According to Iran opposition sources, the blast killed at least four military personnel.
"There Has Never Been A Crazier Moment In History" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 14:13
Who can feel confident about the tending of things just now? The diminishing returns of the Information Age are about to bite our collective asses. The sum of all that digital magic is a nation completely incapable of telling itself the truth or acting honorably. Unemployment is down without employment being up. Candy Crush is making the world safe for democracy. We have the finest health care system in the world. ISIS is trying to compete with our homegrown videogame industry for supremacy in porno-violence (actually, I thought we already won that) but now we will obliterate all the bad guys in the world by REMOTE CONTROL from the drone bunkers of Las Vegas, and that will show them. Thank goodness the long holiday season is almost upon us to juice the so-called economy ever-higher. There has never been a crazier moment in history.
Obama Threatens More Sanctions Against Zimbabwe Over Russian-Platinum DealSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 13:40
As Martin Armstrong exclaims, Obama is out of control. According to NewZimbabwe.com, Washington has said it will accelerate sanctions imposed against Harare in 2003, due to the Robert Mugabe-led government's closer ties with Russia over the US$3 billion Darwendale platinum project. Herald columnist Nathaniel Manheru (who is thought to be Mugabe's spokesman), reported, Washington explained its expectations on Zimbabwe, namely that Zimbabwe was expected (read required) to support those sanctions by avoiding any association with companies sanctioned by the Americans and their Western allies, or their subsidiaries or affiliates. Manheru said "it was ridiculous for the US to refuse to lift sanctions against Harare and then demand support for its measures against Moscow... This is where I am tempted to tell the American government to go and hang, hang on a banana tree, bums up."
The USPS Cost-Saving Plan: The Postman Always Rings Never Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 12:51
Having lost billions of DOLLARS for quarter after quarter, The US Postal Service has a cunning plan to cut costs - end door-to-door postal delivery. MORE than 30 million American homes get door-to-door delivery and another 50 million get their mail dropped at their curbside mailboxes, but as Reuters reports, with the 'entity' buckling under massive FINANCIAL losses, it sees savings in centralized mail delivery. This is good news for the customer though - apparently - as POSTAL SERVICE spokeswoman Sue Brennan explains "converting delivery away from door delivery to either curb line or centralized delivery would enable the Postal Service to provide service to more customers in less TIME."
Picturing Venezuela's Surreal PricesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 12:23
Venezuela's economic crisis has led to some shocking and surreal price distortions that hit PEOPLE'S buying power dramatically. While the government of President Nicolas Maduro calls the country's minimum wage of Bs. 4,252 the highest in the region when converted to $675 using the official exchange rate, the galloping black MARKET for currency considers it as just $42.50 when converted at the street rate of Bs. 100 per US dollar, the rate which many importers and retail outlets must use to acquire hard currency. From Coke to crayons and carrots and from Tires to TVs, Venezuelan prices offer a glimpse of a modern-day hyperinflation.
Is This The Usual Reason Why Stocks Are Plunging? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 11:53
The world-renowned newsletter-writer is at it again: "Prices are headed higher and we’ve no choice but to reduce our exposure on the short side via derivatives that shall therefore increase our long exposure... One may wish to join the bearish camp, but one would be wrong."
Unleashed Algos Go Batshit In Bankrupt GTATSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 11:38
The algos are loose as GTAT is halted 5 6 7 8 9 TIMES post-Chapter 11 (5 up, 4 Down)... this is how price discovery occurs in a massively overvalued company, with no CASH flows, and a record short interest...
What Bubble? Record $924 Billion In 65 Million Auto Loans: 31% Of All New Loans Are Subprime Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 11:21
The total balance of AUTO LOANS outstanding in August is $924.2 billion, an all-TIME high and an increase of 10.8% from same time a year ago
The total number of AUTO LOANS outstanding stands at more than 65 million, a record high and an increase of more than 6% from the same time last year;
The total number of new loans originated year-to-date through June for subprime borrowers, defined as consumers with Equifax Risk Scores of 640 or lower, is 3.9 million, representing 31.2% of all AUTO LOANS originated this year.
Similarly, the total balance of newly originated subprime AUTO LOANS is $70.7 billion, an eight-year high and representing 27.8% of the total balance of new auto loans
$1.5 Billion Market Cap Supplier Of Apple Sapphire Glass Just Filed For Bankruptcy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 - 10:31
But...but...but... it's an AAPL-derivative play, what could go wrong? The supplier of Apple's oh-so-magnificent Sapphire Glass, GT Advanced Technologies, just FILED FOR BANKRUPTCY...
*GT ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES & UNITS FILE CHAPTER 11, LISTS DEBT OF MORE THAN $1 BLN
Do not worry though, the CEO seems very pleased, noting "GT has a strong and fundamentally sound underlying business." Perhaps the reason for his optimism is the massive insider-selling that has occurred in the last few months... For once the shorts (45.7% of float) were right.
Hourly Gold Chart
There’s support near 1172 and then lower at 1155. The only other potential is the 2013 low at 1175-1180. Resistance is 1202-1212 and 1222. The trend remains down.
 
CYCLES
The next short term cycle turn is due Oct 8th (plus or minus 72 hours). Let’s hope this blue cycle low MAKES A TURN AND PUTS IT AT THE BOTTOM OF PRICE. If it can do that, odds favor the market will at least neutralize itself and will at least have the right rotation for a bull leg. How long that will last is up in the air for now.
HUI
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bearish
Intermediate Term Moving Averages 205.28 – 210.21
The bearish trend is still in motion. Prices held the lows of Monday by a few pennies and traded in the same range on both the highs and lows. If a bounce develops from here resistance will be 204-206 and 212-216. The next level of good support is not until the 185-190 area.
NUGT
Intermediate Trend – Bearish
Moving Averages – 26.69 – 28.79
The trend remains down. We are finally at the support line we discussed when we broke below 37. These lines are the odds favored to provide some type of low where price can begin to bounce in a rally attempt.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1508 – 1553
Medium Term Trend ~Neutral/Bearish– The red moving average is about to cross above the blue average which would add to the bearish trend.
Medium Term Moving averages 1294.50–1293.70
All trends are in bearish mode and it will be a miracle if we don’t make new yearly lows.
The failure to close above the medium term moving averages in six of the last 7 months highlight the bear market continues. Additionally, the seasonal failure in September has caused massive liquidation. The chart tells the tale. We are at the last long term trend line until the 1000-1060 area. There is a fib support near 1100 and a weekly support at 1155-1172.
The long term chart shows the trend lines that have been in place for ages. The green trend line held for over a year before it gave way. It is over 9 years old and held every single low since 2005. The next set of red lines is the final uptrend lines to the bull market. Odds favor if we don’t hold this gold downtrend line that the next low is going to be at the lower white line or the final gold downtrend line.
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 117.23 – 117.99 bearish
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT.
BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20
GLD price broke down from the trend line resistance area and the other resistance expected is the moving averages at the 118-119 area. As long as we remain below those levels the short term trends remain down.
GDX
Intermediate term Trend 22.39- 22.94 ~ Bearish
With the break of this line, we have support in the 19-20 area and the 2008 crash low at 15. Resistance is now 22.50-23.50. The trend remains down.
What Next?
The last update from this section on Sunday said look for the 1180 area to provide initial support----or at least gold will try to do so. We stick with that forecast for now.
If we break the yearly lows, then 1172 and 1155 is support.
Bottom Line
The correction in gold may very well have found support at the lows on the 4 hour chart.
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