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1.The FOMC meeting looms ahead, as the main driver of
global gold prices, in the short term. The policy announcement will be made
at about 2PM on Wednesday, and most analysts believe Janet Yellen will remove
the word ?patience? from the Fed?s position on interest rate hikes.
2.Please click here now.That?s the weekly gold
chart.My analysis suggests gold could trade down to $1095, if the Fed removes
the word ?patience?, and from there a major tradeable rally would
begin.
3.Please click here now. Double-click to
enlarge.That?s the monthly CRB commodity index chart.
4.It?s fairly obvious from that chart that the Fed has
failed miserably in its mandate to raise inflation.The stock market has
risen, T-bonds have risen, and houses owned by leveraged hedge funds have
risen, but general commodity prices have tumbled.
5.As a result, numerous institutional money managers are
beginning to question the credibility of the Fed. The Fed?s main mandate,
arguably, is to maintain stable inflation in the 2% area.Janet Yellen may
decide that tomorrow is the time to make a bold statement about the Fed?s
mandate on inflation.If she does that, it could ignite an even more
powerful gold rally.
6.Please click here now.That?s the weekly GDX
chart.Note the key bullish position of the 14,3,3 Stochastics series.
7.Most analysts are very bearish about gold and gold
stocks.Some are trying to predict a ?final bottom? and a ?new bull
market?.On that note, please click here now. Double-click to
enlarge.That?s the monthly HUI chart.It?s in a general support area, and I?m
not concerned whether the next move is higher or lower.Here?s why:
8.I think this is now a stock picker?s market, and
the analysts trying to forecast the action of the general precious metals
sector higher or lower are making a serious mistake.
9.Global gold price discovery is transitioning from the
West to the East, but it?s a process that really only began in 2013 in a
major way.I?m predicting that process will continue for another two to three
years, before the Eastern love trade asserts anything resembling
consistent dominance over the Western fear trade.
10.Many individual gold stocks have soared in 2015, even
while gold has declined from the $1308 area highs, and while the US dollar
has soared against other Western fiat.
11.Investors who are focused on the individual components
of gold stock ETF like GDX, GDXJ, and ZJG.TO, can easily outperform the gold
bears by looking at individual company fundamentals and key technical action.
12.There are some great gold and silver stock rallies
taking place, even as gold declines about $150!Imagine the rallies in
these stocks that can occur, if gold reverses and stages a big rally of its
own!
13.On that note, click here now. That?s the daily
Newmont chart.After staging a fabulous 50% rally from the $17 area to above
$26, a technical non-confirmation appeared on the chart, and I told
subscribers to book profits.
14.Newmont looks great now, and if Janet Yellen begins to
talk about the Fed taking firm action to achieve the elusive 2% inflation
target, institutional money managers could surge into the stock!
15.Simply put, the reason that 2015, 2016, and 2017 will
be the year of the stock picker, is because lower gold prices, the dollar
rally, and the oil price implosion are separating the gold stock wheat from
the chaff.
16.Some companies have astronomically high all-in costs
of production, while others have very low costs.Also, miners that have
revenues in US dollars and costs in other currencies that are declining, can
potentially reap windfall profits, just from the dollar rally.
17.I?m developing a ?Hot Shots? portfolio at my
junior stocks website at www.gracelandjuniors.com, to play
short term movement in key GDXJ component stocks, using in-house
double-smoothed oscillators for timing, and plan to launch it tomorrow
morning.
18.Maybe the HUI index and GDX have ?one more trip
down? on the price chart, but do the people running Newmont really care
about that?I don?t think so.Rather than worrying about the various
lower price targets promised for the HUI index by various gold bears, I
suggest that proud Newmont shareholders should focus on fundamental and
technical developments at Newmont itself.
19.Please click here now.Newmont?s CEO came on
board in 2013 and got paid about eight million dollars.I think Newmont
shareholders got a bargain.He looks lean, healthy, and brings the
expertise and connections needed to take Newmont shareholders forward, for
years to come in what I call? the gold bull era.
20.Please click here now. That?s a snapshot of
the latest COT report.The giant commercial traders have an unrivalled track
record on the COMEX.They are probably the most secretive group of
traders.They never make a press announcement, but their professionalism on
the ?price grid? is unmatched.
21.To the left of that table, are the non-commercial
traders (mainly leveraged hedge funds).It?s clear that they have been piling
on short positions into gold price weakness.That?s a very dangerous strategy,
particularly when the commercial traders are directly on the other side of
that trade.
22.The funds also appear to have booked losses on almost
8000 long positions, while the commercials (aka the ?banksters?)
booked enormous profits on more than 6000 short positions.
23.If the FOMC meeting creates price volatility that
moves gold to my $1095 downside target price, it?s almost certain that the
commercial traders will be enormous buyers, while the funds book even more
losses, and add even more short positions.
24.My suggestion as this important FOMC moment approaches,
is to consider joining the commercial traders.Buy any price weakness
between current levels and $1095, with a focus on individual gold stocks that
have solid reserves and low all-in costs of production!
Special Offer For Website Readers:Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I?ll send you my free ?Gold Stocks Mano A Mano!? report.I pit
five top North American miners against five top Aussie miners, and show my
buy and sell signals for all.Who will come out on top, the ?Thunder Down
Under?, or ?Captain America? in the gold bull era?That?s the question I
intend to answer in this key report!
Thanks!
Cheers
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor.
The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general
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