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The
most important concept of my investing philosophy in the junior resource
sector is the Power of Two. It was first discussed in slightly different
terms shortly after I launched my website a little over two years ago (Mercenary Musing, May 19, 2008).
The
Mercenary Geologist investing philosophy requires actively trading stocks.
There are no “buy and hold” scenarios in my portfolio. That said, there are
trades and there are investments but that’s a subject to be tackled in a
future musing. My trading methodology employs a very conservative strategy to
speculate in a very high risk market sector.
As
I have reiterated time and time again, junior resource “investing” is actually
gambling. Use your discretionary funds, your “fun money”, money that you can
afford to lose without risking the house, the wife, and the kids. My trading
style is designed to skew the gambling odds in my favor and turn that fun
money into more money.
Stocks
in the junior resource sector are not suitable for your IRA, 401K, or RSP.
Retirement accounts should contain lower risk, relatively safe investments.
If properly managed, they will produce steady but unspectacular returns over
the long haul. There is nothing “safe” about trading your hard earned dollars
for a fancy piece of paper from a junior resource company.
Now
let’s get back to the Power of Two. Here is a simplified example of how it
works:
·
Buy shares in a junior resource stock that you have researched thoroughly and
think that it will double in price in 12 months or less. Let’s say you invest
$10,000 in a 20c stock, buying 50,000 shares.
·
When the stock doubles, sell one-half of your position. Your cost basis for
the remaining half position is now zero. You have taken all your money off
the table and are playing this stock with house money; i.e., other people’s
money. You now have $10,000 cash and own 25,000 shares worth $10,000.
·
Take your original $10,000, do detailed due diligence, and invest in another
junior resource stock that you think will double in twelve months or less.
·
Again sell one-half upon a double in price. You now own one-half of your
original positions in two companies, have zero cost basis, and shares
$20,000. With your original investment of $10,000 still intact, your worth in
cash and paper is $30,000.
·
Do it all over again.
·
Then again and again.
At
iteration five, you have maintained but not increased your original $10,000
investment. You have a zero cost basis and hold half of your original
holdings in five stocks that are now worth what you originally paid for them.
You have $10,000 invested in company number six. In cash and paper your gross
is now $60,000. By trading five stocks at the point when they doubled, you
now have the net worth of a five bagger and have preserved your original
capital.
I’m
ignoring brokerage fees in this analysis but even using a full-service
broker, they should not amount to more than 2% of your gross trading amounts.
You can add those fees into your selected sale price to achieve a net double
on your trades.
While
you play the market smartly, the average lay investor hangs on for two,
three, or four years for the proverbial five or ten bagger that never comes
with his warmed-over casserole of a dog’s breakfast portfolio. Because he
buys and holds and does not trade actively or efficiently, he wins some and
he loses some on paper. The proportions of each are largely dependent on
the overall bullish or bearish condition of the stock market. Most often he
ends up holding a bunch of worthless paper in fly-by-night juniors since at
least 95% of companies eventually fail in the sector.
However,
doubles within twelve months are the general rule in the junior resource
sector. Examine the 52 week high and low of all the penny exploration stocks
that are active and try to find more than a handful that have not traded at
two times their lows, or if you’re a pessimist, one-half of their highs year
over year over year.
Though
doubles are the rule, five or ten baggers are a very rare commodity even in
our most speculative of businesses. The fact that they happen occasionally is
what attracts gamblers to our sector. And like the addicted gambler who fails
to cash in his winnings and leave the table, the average investor waits too
long to sell his paper gains and they eventually become losses. Meanwhile,
you my friend have become a wildly successful speculator by employing a
disciplined trading regimen.
In
a bull market, this trading philosophy is an infallible way to make money.
The continuing secular bull market in commodities, even with recurring 10-30%
corrections and episodic bear phases, offers ample opportunities for the
junior resource speculator to prosper. Market corrections and bear dips
within the overall cycle present good buying opportunities.
The
key for success is to pick good companies based on thorough research and due
diligence into three criteria (Mercenary Musing, December 15, 2008):
·
Share structure
·
People
·
Projects
Adopt
a contrarian philosophy and buy particular issuers based upon these
fundamentals when no one wants them, i.e., when volumes are low, the share
price is down, and they are undervalued with respect to their peers. Sell
half upon a double and do it again and again and again, ad infinitum.
A
corollary to my trading philosophy is trading your zero cost basis
shares. Program selling of tranches at regular intervals on the upticks
and putting in trading stops to cover potential downticks will maximize your
profits. Wealth is not and will never be made of paper in the stock market;
otherwise the government surely would tax you on the value of your stock
certificates. You must monetize those gilded paper certificates to realize
gains or losses.
Programmed
trading of stocks when they double and at regular intervals on the uptick
leverages the Power of Two (and Three, Four, and Five!). Be logical, be
disciplined, be systematic, and be unemotional in your trading patterns.
In
other words, adopt a Vulcan philosophy. May you live long and prosper.
Ciao
for now,
Mickey
Fulp
The
Mercenary Geologist
Miningcompanyreport.com
The
Mercenary Geologist Michael S. “Mickey” Fulp is a Certified Professional Geologist
with a B.Sc. Earth Sciences with honor from the University of Tulsa, and
M.Sc. Geology from the University of New Mexico. Mickey has 30 years
experience as an exploration geologist searching for economic deposits of
base and precious metals, industrial minerals, coal, uranium, and water in
North and South America and China.
Mickey has worked for junior explorers, major mining companies, private
companies, and investors as a consulting economic geologist for the past 22
years, specializing in geological mapping and property evaluation. In
addition to Mickey’s professional credentials and experience, he is
high-altitude proficient and is bilingual in English and Spanish. From 2003
to 2006, Mickey made four outcrop ore discoveries in Peru, Nevada, Chile, and
British Columbia.
Mickey is well known throughout the mining and exploration community for his
ongoing work as an analyst for public and private companies, investment
funds, newsletter and website writers, private investors, and brokers.
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