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William H. Frey, Senior Fellow,
at the Brookings Institution discusses
the Uneven Aging and "Younging" of America
as noted in the 2010 census.
America is beginning to show its age as the baby boom generation advances toward full-fledged senior-hood. But the pace of this aging will vary
widely across the
national landscape due to noticeable
geographic shifts in the younger
population, with implications for health care, transportation, and housing,
and possible impacts upon our
ability to forge societal
consensus.
An analysis of data from
the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses reveals that:
Due to baby boomers “aging
in place,” the population age 45 and over grew 18 times as fast as the
population under age 45 between 2000 and 2010.
Although all parts of the nation are aging, there is a growing divide between areas that are experiencing gains or losses in their younger populations.
Suburbs are aging more rapidly than cities with higher
growth rates for their
age-45-and-above populations and larger shares of seniors. People age
45 and older represent 40
percent of suburban residents,
compared to 35 percent of city residents.
There are far more charts,
graphs, and analysis, in the Complete PDF The Uneven
Aging and ‘Younging’
of America: State and Metropolitan
Trends in the 2010 Census. The excerpts above were from a summary.
Cultural Shift Coming
The Washington Post discusses demographic
changes in If baby
boomers stay in suburbia,
analysts predict cultural
shift
During the past decade, the ranks of people who are middle-aged and older grew 18 times as fast as the population younger than 45, according to Brookings
Institution demographer William Frey, who analyzed the 2010 Census data on age for his report, “The Uneven Aging and ‘Younging’
of America.” For the first time, they represent a majority of the nation’s voting-age population.
The political ramifications could
be huge as older voters compete for resources with younger generations.
“When people think
of suburban voters, it’s going to be different than it was
years ago,” Frey said. “They used to be people worried about schools and kids.
Now they’re more concerned about their own well-being.”
The nation’s baby boomers
— 76 million people born between
1946 and 1964 — were the first generation to grow up in suburbia, and the suburbs is where many
chose to rear their own children. Now, as the oldest boomers turn 65, demographers and local
planners predict that most of them will not move to
retirement areas such as Florida and Arizona. They will stay
put.
“If you ask younger boomers, who are
45-ish, a lot say they expect to move and retire elsewhere,” said John Kenney, chief of aging and disability services with the Montgomery County health department. “But
as people get to 65 and 70, whether
because of choice or
default, they end up staying.
We are planning on people being
here.”
“Retirement used to be
the golden years,” said
Kenney. “No more.”
Local governments are starting
to grapple with the
implications.
“Clearly, the age wave is coming,”
said Pat Herrity
(R-Springfield), a county supervisor
who heads the 50-plus committee.
Although Florida and Arizona remain
retirement magnets, 17 of the 25 states with the highest concentrations
of senior citizens are cold-weather
states.
Older Americans now represent 53 percent of voting-age adults.
“The political clout
of older Americans will be even
more magnified if the traditional
higher turnout of this group continues, and as the competition
for resources between the
young and the old becomes more intense,” Frey writes.
Retirement No Longer Golden Years
I have been discussing social trends and changing social attitudes for quite
some time. Here is a snip from
May 2008 on Demographics Of Jobless Claims
Structural Demographics Poor
Structural demographic effects imply that prospects in the
full-time labor market will be poor
for those over age 50-55
and workers under age 30. Teen and college-age employment could suffer a great deal from (1) a dramatic slowdown in discretionary spending and (2)
part-time Boomer reentrants into
the low-paying service sector;
workers who will be competing
with younger workers.
Ironically, older
part-time workers remaining
in or reentering the labor
force will be cheaper to hire in many cases than
younger workers. The reason is Boomers 65 and older will be
covered by Medicare (as long as it
lasts) and will not require as many benefits as will younger workers, especially those with families.
In effect, Boomers will be competing with their children
and grandchildren for jobs that
in many cases do not pay
living wages.
One
of the many consequences
of boomer demographics is
the longer the US opus of reform
of Medicare, and Social Security, the more difficult
it will become because of voting demographics.
Mish
GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com
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