Canadian Recession Coming Up: Yield Curve Inverts Following Unexpected Rate Cut; Loonie at Six-Year Low

IMG Auteur
Published : January 22nd, 2015
374 words - Reading time : 0 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Opinions and Analysis

Currency wars pick up steam today with still more unexpected central bank actions. Please consider Canadian Central Bank Unexpectedly Lowers Interest Rates.

Canada’s dollar sank the most in more than three years after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, saying crude oil’s collapse will slow inflation and weigh on the economy.

The currency reached the weakest level in almost six years after the Bank of Canada reduced economic forecasts and lowered the benchmark rate target to 0.75 percent, from 1 percent, where it’s been since 2010. Government bonds climbed, pushing yields on two-, 10- and 30-year debt to record lows. Crude, Canada’s biggest export, has tumbled more than 50 percent since June amid a global glut.

“They are taking pre-emptive steps,” Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said in a phone interview from New York. “If oil prices remain under pressure, you could potentially see further cuts. This was not expected, and it’s going to put pressure on the loonie.”
Preemptive Steps

How much more preemption before the derivative bubble blows sky high? On that question we find out more tomorrow.

US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar



click on chart for sharper image

Since mid-2011 the "loonie" has lost about 24% vs. the US dollar. However, the dollar is a lot weaker than its Canadian counterpart compared to late 2001.

Canadian Yield Curve Inverts

  • 30-year: 2.044% (Today's Low 1.998%)
  • 10-Year: 1.426% (Today's Low 1.366%)
  • 05-Year: 0.791% (Down 19 basis points, an 18% decline)
  • 03-Year: 0.590% (Down 27 basis points, a 31% decline)
  • 02-Year: 0.560% (Down 29 basis points, a 34% decline)
  • 01-Year: 0.580% (Down 34 basis points, a 37% decline)
  • 01-Month: 0.640% (Down 22 basis points, a 26% decline)

Blue Ribbon Announcement

Canada wins the blue ribbon for the first G-7 yield curve inversion since central bankers started unleashing competitive "preemptive" rate cuts.

Yield on the Canadian 1-year note, 2year-note, and 3-year note are all inverted (lower than yield on the 1-month note).

In addition, yield on on the 1-year note is inverted with the 2- and 3-year notes.

I smell a Canadian recession (and more surprise actions). A bust of the Canadian real estate bubble, one of the biggest in the world, is also on the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Data and Statistics for these countries : Canada | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Canada | All
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Take advantage of rising gold stocks
  • Subscribe to our weekly mining market briefing.
  • Receive our research reports on junior mining companies
    with the strongest potential
  • Free service, your email is safe
  • Limited offer, register now !
Go to website.