The “Volatility” Fallacy

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Published : October 22nd, 2014
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

Today’s theme shouldn’t surprise you at all – of the horrific manipulation of every aspect of the U.S. economy and financial markets.  This month it has surged to unprecedented levels; first of all, ahead of the “all-important” mid-term elections; secondly, to “cover” the planned end of overt QE; and last but not least, to prevent what clearly was beginning to look like commencement of the end game.

Let’s start with yesterday’s “miraculous” equity and Treasury yield surge – and capping of gold, as it again sought to breach the Cartel’s $1,250/oz. “line in the sand.”  To that end, recall our commentary of how “conveniently” at the historic “key attack time” of 3:00 AM EST, a “rumor” that the ECB was considering corporate bond monetization emerged to “save the day.”  Throw in a healthy suspension of disbelief – in that not only should stocks and bond yields have divergent reactions to such news but higher than expected QE is the most PM-bullish news one could imagine!

By day’s end, the PPT had rocketed stocks higher; again, based solely on said ECB “rumor” on extremely low volume.  Let alone, the catastrophic earnings reports of bellwether stocks McDonalds and Coca-Cola – and widespread fraud allegations against the world’s largest subprime mortgage servicer, Ocwen Financial.  And as for PMs; Viola! Following “Cartel Herald” caps at 6:00 AM and the 8:20 AM COMEX open, and a subsequent raid at the 12:00 PM EST “cap of last resort,” gold was forced back below $1,250.  And wouldn’t you know it – the ECB “rumor,” despite making little if any sense – was refuted right after the close by the head of the Belgian Central bank stating, “We still haven’t had a serious discussion about the purchase of corporate bonds.  There is no concrete proposal for that on the table.”  Long-time PM owners are well-versed in this multi-pronged market manipulation “strategy” – as it has been ongoing for 15 years.

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

Fast forward to this morning when rates again were falling – in the 10-year Treasury’s case, back below the Fed’s newest upside nemesis to 2.2%.  Lo and behold,just before the COMEX open, rates suddenly rocketed higher for no reason; in yet another example of the now daily “new Hail Mary trade” – i.e., the Fed goosing rates higher to prevent universal realization of the “most damning proof yet of QE failure.”  Irrespective, gold fought through relentless naked shorting to just under the $1,250 “line in the sand” at the COMEX open when the Cartel took more “draconian measures.”

Today was a very light economic news day, so the Cartel didn’t have much to work with in the way of “cover.”  And thus, they said “who cares?” – attacking at the 8:30 AM EST release of the rigged, cooked and generally mocked CPI reading.  Not only has the CPI report NEVER effected markets in any meaningful way (especially PMs, which are NEVER allowed to rise when it comes in hot); but in this case, it came in EXACTLY as expected.  However, as the Cartel has clearly “sold its soul” (and whatever miniscule inventory it still holds) for the short-term goal of defending $1,250, they did this immediately afterwards.

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

Yes, the price plunged from $1,249 to $1,242 in one minute for no reason other than naked shorting to suppress prices.  Base metals, oil, and equities were flat and didn’t budge on the news.  ONLY gold and silver – the latter of which, as I write just before 1130 AM EST, is down a whopping 2%, per what we described in last year’s “irrefutable PM manipulation statistics.”

And this, despite yesterday’s U.S. Mint data depicting enormous Silver Eagle sales on Monday and Tuesday putting it on pace for its third-largest month ever.  In fact, following up on the violently bullish conclusions of last week’s “Miles Franklin All-Star Silver Panel Webinar” our good friends at Smaulgold and Sharelynx published thisfantastic article – depicting the relentless explosive growth of global silver demand.

Look good and hard at the downward gold spike above – which frankly is so egregious even “waterfall decline” doesn’t do it justice.  Putting such manipulative blatancy into perspective, gold rose every year from 2001 through 2012, from $250 ounce to a (temporary) peak of $1,920/oz.  And during that time – at least, starting in 2002 when I started watching – I have NEVER seen gold rise in such a manner compared to literally hundreds of such plunges in most cases at the same two or three “key attack times.”

Frankly, there is so much ugly in the world these day it makes me very, very sad.  For example, the fact that 113 Federal Reserve staff members make $250,000 per year for doing nothing but destroy the American (and World) Dream.  Or that America relentlessly bombs the Middle East without a modicum of Congressional debate – in the process, handing $600 million weapon orders to General Dynamics, to be paid for with money printing and propagandized as “GDP” (not real GDP of course).  Or how about the news that Obamacare won’t release its 2015 premium changes until a week after the elections?  Gee, I wonder if they will be higher than 2014.  And finally, how about this ridiculously disingenuine Wall Street Journal headline – claiming the Fed, which is literally owned by the banks, and spends every second of every day supporting them is warning banks to “shape up or risk break-up.”  Yes, and pigs will fly as well.

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

But most of all, I need to vent about the misuse of the word “volatility” – in some ways, butchered more horribly than even “inflation” and “recovery.”  To wit, for 12 years we have listened to “bad guys” like Washington, Wall Street and the MSM; and supposed “good guys” like precious metal trade organizations, newsletter writers and a particularly well known bullion dealer talk about everything from fundamentals to trading activity.  Volatility, by definition, means the odds of a large move in either direction are equal.  However, as noted above, gold and silver NEVER have significant upward movements – and even when sharply rising, they ONLY occur at the same time of day (the COMEX open) ALWAYS capped by the aforementioned “Cartel Herald” algorithm.  Conversely, there are no limits to the amount, depth or viciousness of PM price declines.  As for stocks, the polar opposite is true – as they are NEVER allowed to materially decline; are constantly “goosed” higher, and have a constant backstop of both PPT buying and relentless propaganda.

Yesterday, I posted this graph depicting higher “fear” in the markets (as measured by the VIX volatility index) than even the 2008 peak.  The fact that the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” actually fell for more than one day in a row is a miracle in and of itself – and at its worst, was down 9% from its all-time high (just 5% now); with its worst intraday decline being just 2.7% for a whopping five minutes before the PPT more than halved such losses with a patented “Hail Mary” rally.

Since then, the PPT has staged four straight days of prototypical “dead ringer” algorithms with a fifth currently in the works – so powerfully overwhelming the market with computer programs, volume has dramatically plunged.  Most damning of all, for the first time ever, the VIX had three straight days of double-digit declines!  And don’t forget Treasury bonds, which also benefit from “QE to Infinity,” soaring to record highs despite the poorest fundamentals – and most egregious overvaluation – in fixed income history.

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

Not so for precious metals, of course; which day after day, week after week are subjected to unrelenting “Cartel Herald” caps, “waterfall declines” and every trick imaginable – such as the relentless mauling of mining shares – to make sure price, or even momentum increases are averted.  And all the while, the gold and silver supply outlook plunges, and demand rockets from record high to record high.

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

24hGold - The “Volatility” Fal...

So please, let’s stop kidding ourselves with the “volatility” fallacy – particularly as relates to silver, which has been so brutal attacked for so long, it has become “common knowledge” that the commodity with perhaps the most bullish (and stable) supply/demand pictures is “wildly volatile.”  My friends, the only reason this is so is because TPTB are so terribly fearful of it – knowing full well it is the “financial world’s Achilles Heel.”  Thus, we cannot be more vehement in our view that its risk/reward trade-off has never in history been more favorable – particularly as at any time, on any day, history’s most maniacal suppression scheme could abruptly end permanently.

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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